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Trump says U.S. is still talking with China, investors ready for a week of central bank speculation, and European politics are still a mess.
No dealâ¦Â yet
President Donald Trump said the U.S. is â[doing very well with China](â and that talks between both sides are continuing, while signalling that he isnât ready to sign a trade deal yet. Speaking to reporters in New Jersey yesterday, Trump also said he would make a decision today on renewing licenses for U.S. companies to trade with Huawei Technologies Co. The tariffs already in place are [putting Apple Inc. at a competitive disadvantage]( relative to its chief competitor Samsung Electronics, the companyâs CEO Tim Cook told Trump over dinner on Friday, with the president saying he made a âgood case.â
Jackson Hole
This week is likely to be dominated by monetary speculation across three continents. The Peopleâs Bank of China announced that from tomorrow new loans must be priced âmainlyâ to a revamped [benchmark]( called the Loan Prime Rate, seen as another move toward market-based interest rates. In Europe, [weaker-than-forecast inflation]( numbers this morning will only serve to increase speculation about further European Central Bank easing at the September meeting. Finally, it is Jackson Hole conference week, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powellâs [address on Friday]( expected to all but confirm another rate cut next month.Â
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Brexit, Salvini
U.K. opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn promised to do â[everything necessary](â to prevent a no-deal Brexit as the odds of a snap [general election]( remain high. It comes after Corbynâs idea to install himself as a temporary Prime Minister failed to gain enough support. Meanwhile, the drama in Italy continues, with the strongest indication yet that Deputy Premier Matteo Salviniâs push for power is running into trouble. Leading members of the opposition Democratic Party said [they should support]( anti-establishment Five Star Movementâs fight against Salviniâs efforts to push out Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. In surprising news, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is talking about the possibility of [increasing spending]( should an economic crisis hit the country.Â
Markets rise
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8% while Japanâs Topix index closed 0.6% higher as optimism over the trade outlook was boosted by Trumpâs comments. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index gained 0.6% by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with trade hopes again the catalyst for the move. Itâs a similar story in the U.S. where S&P futures [pointed to a positive open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.623% and gold slipped below $1,500.Â
Coming upâ¦
Itâs the Monday of the third week in August, so needless to say, things are very quiet. There is no economic data of note scheduled for the U.S. today. In earnings, Baidu Inc. and Weibo Corp. are about the only reports of note. If youâre looking for something interesting to do, it might be fun to [slowly track the freshly re-named Iranian tanker]( as it makes its way across the Mediterranean.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the weekend.
- Odd Lots: John Hempton on [whatâs ailing bank stocks](.
- Cancelling student debt [would hurt economy](, NABE survey shows.
- These nations [faced bankruptcy](. Now their bonds yield nothing.
- China missiles could overwhelm U.S. military â[in hours](.â
- Would ECB [buying equities]( really be a good idea?
- Korea to probe sales of product that risks [wiping out investors](.
- Astronomers closer to cracking mystery of [fast radio bursts](.
And finally, hereâs what Luke's interested in this morning
A cheer could be heard across global markets on Friday upon news that Germany was willing to [revisit]( the tightness of its self-imposed fiscal straitjacket. Ten-year bund and Treasury yields are nearly up 10 basis points since the Der Spiegel report that Germany would loosen its budget pursestrings if the economy falls into recession. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz later [added]( the fiscal response could be in the order of support provided following the financial crisis, if needed. Not to spoil the party, but this situation raises the question of just how negative the marketâs base case is. Europeâs biggest economy has to see output fall for back-to-back quarters â something the data wonât tell us until mid-November â for a fiscal push to be considered. And thatâs good news! "We think it would require a significant deterioration of the labor market to trigger bold fiscal action, which hard data does not support,â writes economists Barbara Bottcher and Dieter Brauninger. Contrast the approaches of the Federal Reserve â the most common scapegoat whenever anything goes wrong in markets or the economy â and the German government when it comes to avoiding and mitigating hardship. Chair Jerome Powell believes an ounce of [prevention]( is worth a pound of cure. German fiscal policy makers remain committed to allowing the disease to fester before any medicine is administered. As such, one wonders if this combination raises the possibility of a perverse âbad news is good newsâ relationship between German data and financial markets in the works. The Federal Reserve is willing to be proactive, but Angela Merkel is not.
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