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China says U.S. violates Trump-Xi accord, bond market still very nervous, and itâs a huge day for retailers.Â
Warning
Just as markets seemed to be catching their breath after yesterdayâs huge moves, Chinese authorities issued a statement saying President Donald Trumpâs planned additional 10% tariff [violates the consensus]( reached between the leaders of both countries in Osaka. The release went on to say that China will have to take necessary countermeasures. U.S. stock futures fell and bond yields dropped in the wake of the unexpected warning.Â
Ultra low
The continuing grind lower in global bond yields sees the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield [under 2%]( this morning for the first time ever. The worldâs pool of negative-yielding debt now stands at [more than $16 trillion](. While the two-year to 10-year spread is just about positive today even in the face of the China headlines, itâs certainly not wide enough to [calm any nerves](. A rise in European yields also reversed in the wake of the statement from Beijing.Â
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Retail day
In the real economy, today is a good day to assess the health of the consumer. U.S. retail sales for July are expected to show a 0.3% increase, slightly lower than Juneâs headline figure. Already today, U.K. retail sales showed [a 0.2% increase](, with the rise being driven by online promotions, suggesting consumers remain wary. Walmart Inc. reports second-quarter earnings before the bell, with analysts expecting a forecast boost. J.C. Penney Co. Inc. will also report in what is shaping up to be another [difficult results season]( for traditional retailers. Â
Markets drop
Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.7% while Japanâs Topix index closed 1.0% lower will all industry groups on the gauge declining. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.8% lower at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with cyclical stocks leading losses after the China warning. S&P 500 futures [pointed to more red at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.556% and gold was higher.Â
Coming upâ¦
Itâs not only retail sales today â thereâs a full slate of economic data to digest. At 8:30 a.m. initial jobless claims numbers, August Empire manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed business outlook all land at the same time as retail sales. Industrial production is expected at 9:15 a.m. At 4:00 p.m. June U.S. TIC flows data is released. Nvidia Corp. is also due to report earnings later.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Someoneâs [betting big on an S&P 500 rebound]( as sell-off worsens.
- Banks announced [almost 50,000 job cuts]( this year.
- Things are looking pretty bad when even [coffee demand]( is at risk.
- Europeâs [youth unemployment isnât as dire]( as typically claimed.
- WeWork [IPO prospectus](Â has some [scratching their heads](.
- Epstein autopsy [deepens mystery over his death](, Post reports.
- How many [Earth-like planets]( are around sun-like stars?
And finally, hereâs what Joe's interested in this morning
Sometimes I get into [fights on Twitter](. People get really passionate about things like the Fed, QE, ZIRP, NIRP, stock market bubbles and so on. And something I've noticed is that a lot of times people angrily bring up Beyond Meat (the maker of plant-based burgers) as some poster child of a Fed-driven market gone awry. I've always thought this was kind of strange, since Beyond Meat's business model is very straightforward (sell lots of patties for more than they cost to make) and since there is a general craze for meat alternatives. As such it's not that weird that there's a lot of stock market enthusiasm for its shares. Nonetheless, I think there are three reasons why Beyond angers people so much. First of all, the stock is undeniably expensive based on traditional metrics. It's got a market cap of nearly $10 billion, while revenue for 2019 is only expected to be just over $250 million. It also still loses money. Second of all, one of the main arguments in favor of eating plant-based alternatives is climate change, so some people figure that Beyond Meat must be some kind of stalking horse for communism, so that makes them angry too. And then finally, on certain parts of the internet, eating meat is associated with manliness and not eating meat is associated with the opposite, so the trend toward plantless meat is seen as some kind of anti-male conspiracy. So Beyond Meat really just triggers people on all kinds of levels. Fed-driven bubbles, communism, climate change, feminism and so forth. It makes it the perfect thing to fight about right now.
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