[Bloomberg](
Mnuchin says China trade talks likely this week, good news and bad news for the U.K., and another cacophony of Fed speakers.Â
Trade talks
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says there is a âgood chanceâ he will [travel to Beijing]( with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer should talks by phone this week turn out to be productive. The conciliatory noises belie [elevated]( rhetoric, as President Donald Trump claimed slowing growth in the Asian country is [due to U.S. tariffs]( and is forcing Beijing back to the table. For its part, China is threatening sanctions of its own, although those ones [have to do with military](, rather than trade, disagreements.Â
Economics vs politics
There was some more good news for the U.K. economy â and believers in the Philips curve â this morning when data showed that wages grew at the [fastest pace in 11 years]( while unemployment remained at the lowest level since the mid-1970s. Under normal circumstances, results such as this may lead to increased inflation expectations, projections for a central bank rate hike and therefore [a higher pound](. That the pound [traded lower in the wake of the data]( only means that Brexit continues to be the sole driver of investor sentiment towards the country, and that is [not going well](.Â
Fed, banks
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a conference in Paris at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time, with investors looking for any further clarification on the [extent of his dovishness](. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans all speak at separate events today. On the policy demand-side, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Wells Fargo & Co. are all due to report earnings later.Â
Markets agree with yesterdayâs price discovery
Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was broadly unchanged while Japanâs first trading session of the holiday-shortened week ended with a 0.5% loss. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was less than 0.1% lower at 5:50 a.m. as investors awaited bank earnings and economic data. S&P 500 futures were also [pretty much unchanged](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.090% and gold was slightly higher.Â
Coming upâ¦
Markets may stir into life at 8:30 a.m. when U.S. retail sales data for June is released, with headline growth expected to slow. At 9:15 a.m. industrial production numbers for June are expected to also show a slowdown. Facebook Inc.'s David Marcus testifies on Libra before the Senate Banking Committee today, while executives from Google, Facebook, Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. are set to appear before the [House antitrust panel]( investigating the market power of the biggest tech companies.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Central bankers are sick of [saving the world economy]( alone.
- Stock investors go âall-inâ [with $6 billion bet]( on S&P 500 ETFs.
- Why [(almost) everyone]( hates Facebookâs cryptocurrency Libra.
- Wells Fargo says big rush to bonds has â[gotten ahead of itself](â
- Top forecaster says [worldâs best currency rally]( is heading for a crash.
- Nestle invents new way to make chocolate â with [no added sugar](.Â
- Scientists unveil the first-ever image of [quantum entanglement](.
And finally, hereâs what Luke's interested in this morning
Banks are in the spotlight as earnings season gets unofficially underway. But after reading this tweet from Roundhill CEO Will Hershey, I was struck by how much the shine has come off the sector since the financial crisis and never really returned. Of the 17 companies he highlighted that are the largest by market cap in their respective countries, only one is a bank (Canadaâs RBC). Meanwhile, [Citiâs results]( show that âbean counting and boring banking are in ascendance.â Or as Imperial Capital analyst David Havens [quipped](, "a thoroughly competent showing worthy of the excitement caused by a white Toyota Corolla SE motoring down a very slightly curved road at 38 mph in a 35 mph zone.'' Boring helps explain why banks havenât been able to lead. Since the immediate aftermath of Trumpâs election win, the only time financials meaningfully outperformed for an extended period as the market rose was near the end of 2017, when the tax overhaul plan was being formulated and passed. The group looks a lot more like public utilities, but lacks the same kind of face-value defensive characteristics that have made market leaders out of income-heavy sectors at various times in recent history while sovereign bond yields slid. And the regulatory backdrop limits the extent to which U.S. banks could attempt to âlean inâ to attract a more yield-oriented investor base, while their tendency to trade off the curve or level of rates suggests that might not be too successful anyway. Judging by the headlines surrounding banks, boring may be boring â but also the best a financial institution can hope for.
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