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[Bloomberg]( China growth slows while outlook improves, Wall Street earnings kick off, and Iran deal on its last legs. Slowing? China’s economy slowed to the weakest pace since quarterly data began in 1992, [rising 6.2%]( in the second quarter from a year earlier. There was better data beyond the headline number, with factory output and retail sales growth beating estimates for June. Those numbers helped stocks in Shanghai and Hong Kong [recover earlier losses](. There was also little sign of a slowdown in production of commodities in the country, with output of many basic materials [hitting records last month](. Earnings Citigroup Inc. is the first big U.S. bank to report second-quarter earnings when it posts results [before the bell]( this morning. CFO Mark Mason warned last month that revenue from trading and investment banking [fees would fall](. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. are due to report tomorrow, with Bank of America Corp. on Wednesday, and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. Saving Iran deal European foreign ministers are meeting today in Brussels to discuss [Iran’s non-compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal](, and to try to find a way forward that will de-escalate the situation. The U.K.’s Mail on Sunday published further leaked diplomatic cables that showed President Donald Trump abandoned the nuclear pact with Iran because it was [signed by his predecessor Barack Obama](. Oil, which rallied last week on the back of increasing Iran tensions, as well as storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico and falling U.S. stockpiles, is managing to [hold onto its gains this morning](. Markets quiet Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index climbed 0.3% as investors welcomed the better news from China. Japan was closed for a holiday. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.1% lower at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time in relatively subdued trading. S&P 500 futures [pointed to a small rise at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.125% and gold was slightly higher. Sanctions China hinted that it may [sanction firms]( such as General Dynamics Corp. and Honeywell International Inc. if a [$2 billion U.S. weapons sale]( to Taiwan goes ahead. Elsewhere, Russia and India have agreed on a method for payment of [multi-billion dollar defense deals]( that will avoid using the dollar in order to avoid U.S. sanctions on Russia. Finally, U.S. companies can [restart sales]( to Huawei Technologies Co. in two to four weeks, according to Reuters reports. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the weekend. - Odd Lots: Why a longtime bull [just flipped bearish]( on the stock market. - Peter Thiel urges U.S. probe of Google’s “[seemingly treasonous](” acts. - Why Budweiser and banks [failed to sell]( the king of IPOs. - Erdogan pledges to [lower Turkish rates]( after central bank fight. - Tougher gun laws mean [fewer American kids die](. - Bitcoin [tumbles](. - Why everyone wants to go [back to the Moon](. And finally, here’s what Luke's interested in this morning The defining feature of last week’s cross-asset trade was the ability of U.S. equities to set fresh record highs in spite of – or perhaps because of – a brisk [sell-off in the safest government bonds](. Lower yields have been key to juicing stock valuations this year. So the tentative shift toward a “good news is good news” backdrop on the heels of [solid data from the U.S.]( and [Europe]( would constitute a major change, if sustained. But it’s yet to be reinforced by results from Corporate America and their take on the possibility of a rebound in second-half growth that continues into 2020. On that note, Citi rates strategist Jabaz Mathai explains why that’s important, and how it could serve as a limiting force against major upside in equities or downside in bonds: S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2020 have remained lofty even as current-year estimates come under the knife. “Why do we care about this?” he writes. “Simply because it raises the probability of a de-rating in equities sometime in the second half of the year, and that in turn should provide a bid to USTs.” The narrowing of the spread between expected returns from stocks versus bonds (versions of the so-called Fed model or layman’s equity risk premium) could creep to the fore this week amid the unofficial kickoff to the second-quarter reporting period and executives’ thoughts about what the world will look like in a year’s time. 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