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It’s Fed day, Trump-Xi trade meet is on, and Britain edges closer to a new leader. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.
Powell’s still here
Despite the wishes of a certain person in[ the White House](, Jerome Powell is still very much in charge of the Federal Reserve and will be delivering a press conference after the rates decision later today. The stakes have become ludicrously high: Markets have now priced in a huge dovish shift by policy makers, and ECB President Mario Draghi’s capitulation yesterday has done little to make the Fed’s life easier. Meanwhile, political pressure for a rate cut from President Donald Trump continues, even as he juices the stock rally thereby making a cut less urgent (more on that below). Former Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer has suggested that pressure from the president could have [led the Fed to raise rates]( in December. In that case it was an act of defiance, but it still leads to the disconcerting thought that [politics is creeping into decisions](. The Fed is making clear it thinks [the law is on its side]( if Trump does try to remove Powell – but it’s still not unthinkable given all the president has [said about him](. So, a big day all round. Here’s a [decision-day guide](.
The meet is on
Nothing gets done at meetings, everyone knows that. Nonetheless, the U.S. and China said their presidents [will meet in Japan next week]( to relaunch trade talks after a month-long stalemate. Will it amount to anything, given Trump’s checkered history with meetings? The market’s verdict: Don’t know and don’t care. The S&P 500 will open today less than 1% from its all-time high after a Tuesday jump. Five Things was [shocked]( to note that this rally-juicing announcement coincided with the launch of [Trump’s 2020 campaign](. But who knows, maybe there really are grounds for optimism. Trump could certainly do with a win, judging by [his polling](.
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Tories’ Got Talent, episode 3
Britain’s quixotic quest to find a prime minister who can navigate the Brexit quagmire will continue today with a third round of voting among Conservative MPs. Boris Johnson remains the favorite after he [extended his lead]( over rivals and hard-line Brexiteer Dominic Raab bowed out. The front-runner appeared in a chaotic TV debate with them all last night (there are now five in total) which basically [failed to settle anything](. By the end of the week, we should know which two will go forward to be voted on by the wider party.
Markets
It's a somewhat mixed picture ahead of the Fed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 1.8% as it tracked the Wall Street rally, with Japan’s Topix ending 1.7% higher. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was down 0.2% as of 5:50 a.m. Eastern time as real estate companies weighed on the gauge. S&P futures pointed to a flat open, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 2.08% and gold slipped.
Coming up
The only thing that really matters is at 2:00 p.m., and Powell’s press conference is 30 minutes later.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Boston [built a new waterfront](just in time for the apocalypse.
- Why Facebook is [minting a coin]( and how you can use it.
- The hot new thing in funds is [higher fees and more restrictions](. Sounds great.
- Google chucks money at probl… we mean, Google [pledges $1 billion]( to tackle Bay area housing crisis.
- Hedge funds [for everyone](! What could possibly go wrong?
- Strategists say [you’re overthinking threats](to the bull market.
- Bloomberg Businessweek [ranks MBA schools](.
- Arctic permafrost is disappearing 70 years [sooner than expected](.Â
And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning
It's been about 24 hours since the launch of the Facebook-led Libra cryptocurrency, and the world is awash in takes. I have two; one of them is lukewarm and the other is hot. The lukewarm one is that I think it's plausible that it just never gets off the ground. Politicians in [D.C](. and [Europe]( have already voiced concerns, and it may be that regulators and elected officials just throw up too many roadblocks. Since Libra relies on the backing of fiat currency held in banks, regulators really do have a lot of power here -- much more than they have over legacy cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum. My hotter take is that if Libra does get off the ground, that it has the potential to be very successful. Tim Mahaney, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, [likened]( the launch to Apple's introduction of its iOS operating system a decade ago. However, I think Facebook is aspiring to be to Libra what Google is to the Android operating system. In other words, if successful, the right way to think about this is not as a coin or a cryptocurrency, but rather an open-source platform for building money-moving applications. Unlike traditional open source software, which anyone can in theory fork, modify or develop for their own needs, a monetary system must maintain some consensus on things. What is the unit of account? Who has the money? Who is allowed to issue it? And so unlike a normal piece of software, an open-source money system needs all kinds of governance mechanisms. But in theory, if Libra launched and gained momentum, you could imagine it as a platform in which anyone anywhere could write an app that moves money to anyone else in a fashion they please. Right now, there are numerous closed payment applications, but they're not interoperable. A person using Venmo can't send money to someone using Zelle or WeChat. The potential with Libra is that they could.
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