5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( Trading fear for hope on trade, the power of central banks, and a dash of deal mania. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today. Trade President Donald Trump decided not to impose a 5% charge on all Mexican imports, accepting the country’s offer of tougher immigration enforcement. The breakthrough clears a path for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement to move forward, Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau said Sunday. Markets predictably [welcomed the news]( (see below) and the peso jumped[the most in almost a year](. Though it’s all left some wondering if the planned tariffs were ever [really going to happen](. In the meantime, while the developments do indeed appear to remove one obstacle for Congress to approve the North American deal, the White House still has [work to do]( to get it over the line. Central bank on it Following on from the perceived [dovish turn]( of the Federal Reserve and the ECB’s dovish-but-maybe-not-dovish-enough messaging last week, the Bank of Japan joined the worrywarts on Monday when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told Bloomberg TV the central bank [can deliver more big monetary stimulus]( if necessary. He emphasized the BOJ doesn’t need to act now, citing the health of the [economy](, and said policy makers need to take care with side effects on the financial system. But alongside the messaging from his peers, it seems pretty clear that central banks are getting twitchy as the U.S.-China trade war drags on. The theme has [dominated a gathering of finance chiefs]( in Japan as every wonders: Exactly how much ammunition do they actually [have left]( to fight a downturn? Sponsored Content by [Masterworks]( Uber IPO? All smoke no sizzle. Learn why art is the #1 luxury investment of the ultra-wealthy. We’re the first platform that allows you to invest in blue-chip art by Warhol, Monet, and more. What are you waiting for? [Get Started.](  China chills With tensions in global commerce brewing, import-export data is naturally getting more attention than usual. On that note, Chinese imports [tumbled]( in May while exports unexpectedly rose, suggesting weakness in the domestic economy combined with signs that manufacturers are front-loading shipments ahead of threatened new U.S. tariffs. The trade war is causing all manner of corporate [shenanigans](. Vietnam said Sunday it had discovered dozens of fake product-origin certificates and illegal transfers by Chinese companies trying to sidestep U.S. levies. The exports in question cover everything from agriculture to textiles and steel, and it’s one of the first times an Asian government has publicly alleged such misbehavior this year. Deal mania… sort of The decades-long relationship between Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co. is in [trouble](after the implosion of the French firm’s merger plans with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, with the Japanese automaker said to be partially responsible. In turn, Renault has made moves to block Nissan’s plans to overhaul its governance structure. All this comes amid tensions over the French government’s ownership stake in the alliance. Elsewhere in merger land, United Technologies Corp. agreed to buy Raytheon Co. in an [all-stock deal](, forming an aerospace and defense giant with $74 billion in sales. Embattled [tour-operator](Thomas Cook Group Plc surged as much as 24% after confirming it had received an offer from China’s Fosun International Ltd, while Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC is [proceeding]( with plans to snap up a smaller local rival. Markets happy Reports that new tariffs for Mexico were being ditched helped spur risk appetite, and markets in Asia set the pace. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1% as Japan's Topix finished 1.3% higher. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.2% as of 5:58 a.m. Eastern Time, though a number of exchanges including Germany's were closed for a holiday. The S&P 500 was poised to gain at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.14% and gold dropped to $1,328.30. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - He lost $1 billion. Now he sells James Bond's [favorite bubbly](. - Bulls beware: The 2020 oil market is [quickly turning ugly](. - Harvard course helps rich millennials do good (and [make money](). - Mohamed El-Erian on what the market rebound is [telling investors](. - Canada [‘blew’ its chance]( to be the world’s pot leader. - The future will be recorded, on your [smart speaker](. - Microsoft's [next generation Xbox]( console to be fastest ever. And finally, here’s what Tracy's interested in this morning Friday's disappointing jobs report means some people are now expecting a 50 basis point cut to U.S. interest rates as early as July. But beyond the simple 'cut or no cut' forecasts, something interesting is happening among Fed-watchers. There's a huge debate now over whether this is a pre-emptive cut by the Fed intended to avoid an economic slowdown, or whether the Fed is reacting to weaker-than-expected data and cutting rates into a cycle of slower growth. How you think of that is going to dictate whether the rate cut is a good or bad thing for risk assets. (Judging from the market reaction on Friday, consensus seems to be on the 'insurance cut' side.) Either way though, the fact that people are debating the qualitative nature of a rate cut suggests that the market's relationship with the central bank has changed. You get a sense of the paradigm shift in [this video]( for 'What's the Big Idea?,' my [new Bloomberg TV segment]( dedicated to exploring the most interesting ideas in markets. Investors used to think a rate cut was inevitably a bad thing because it foreshadowed a slowdown. Now things are arguably very different. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. [Learn more](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( [SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend]]( You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022