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The global bond rally is getting serious, China gears up to weaponize rare earths, and big moves in the commodity market.Â
2% in sight
Government bond yields across the world are tumbling again, with the U.S. 10-year [trading at 2.23% this morning]( as global trade tensions mount. The gap between the three-month and 10-year American yield fell as low as minus 12 basis points, the [most since negative 2007](. Benchmark yields in Australia and New Zealand dropped to all-time lows, Japan’s fell close to -0.1%, the lowest in three years, while German bund yields are [close to]( the rock-bottom. Â
New weapon
China may use its dominance in the [global supply of rare-earth elements](, critical for the many modern manufactured goods, as a means of striking back at U.S. trade measures. Chinese media, including the main outlet for the ruling Communist Party, ran reports highlighting that very prospect. The country [controls 80% of global supply](. Shares of companies in the sector [have surged]( since President Xi Jinping visited a production facility in Jiangxi last week.
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Commodity mix
The renewed concerns over the health of the global economy and the trade outlook is hitting oil again, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate dropping more than 2% this morning to [trade at $57.80]( by 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time. The rally in iron ore ground to a halt, with ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel producer, announcing [cuts in production]( across its European operations due to weak demand. The one place for commodity bulls is [U.S. grain futures](, with a corn contract hitting the highest level in three years after a 20% gain in less than three weeks as rainfall continues to stop farmers getting seed in the ground.Â
Markets fall
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific dropped 0.7% while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.9% lower as investors reassessed the global growth outlook. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down 1.5% at 5:45 a.m. with miners leading the losses in a session which is seeing every major industry group lower. It is a similar story with S&P futures which are pointing to a [sharp drop at the open](. Gold is higher.Â
Coming up…
All 25 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg see policy makers at the Bank of Canada [holding rates unchanged]( when the monetary policy decision is announced at 10 a.m. in Ottawa. The moves in the bond market may see more attention paid to today’s Treasury auctions in which two- and seven-year notes are being sold. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. both hold shareholder meetings today where the companies face votes on [climate-change policies](.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- U.S. does not label China a “[currency manipulator](” while expanding watchlist to nine countries.
- What happened to the yen [haven trade](?
- Rattled China investors [worry what’s next]( after bank seizure.
- Pakistan stocks to get a [big bold buyer](: The government.
- This is what happens when the Mississippi [unleashes its fury](.
- Putting a price on the [risk of climate change](.
- Why we will [never know everything]( about the universe.
And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning
Hedge fund legend David Tepper [announced last week]( that he's returning outside money to investors and converting his operation to a family office. Nir Kaissar at Bloomberg Opinion has a great piece on [Tepper's astonishing track record](, pointing out that if you'd invested $10,000 in his fund at inception, it would be worth $2.5 million today. What always struck me about Tepper was his ability to thrive in multiple market regimes. The post-crisis era has been rough on many macro legends. You often heard them over the years lamenting the Fed, QE, or the rise of algorithms, and how that made their job more difficult. Tepper on the other hand just rode the wave. I've always thought part of his success was due to his political disposition. I'm not sure what his party affiliation is these days, but he seems to be a "centrist" who [supported Clinton in 2016](. The advantage this gave him is that in the post-crisis period, he wasn't foaming at the mouth like other investors were about how Obama was a "socialist," or how Bernanke was ruining markets by swapping government liability for another. Instead he saw that there was a big wave up, and he rode it. It was clear in the 2010-2016 period that a lot of managers just couldn't separate their loathing of the political leadership from their investing. Oh well, their loss, and Tepper's gain.
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