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Theresa May announces her resignation, Trump administration may have more tariff targets, and oil’s having a bad week.Â
May over (in June)
British Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she will [step down as Conservative Party leader on June 7](, while staying on as PM until the [leadership contest]( is concluded. Initial market reaction to the not-unexpected move has been relatively muted, with the pound fluctuating around $1.27.Â
More targets
The White House is seeking to cast its tariff net wider, potentially eyeing countries deemed to have [undervalued currencies](. The latest proposal would let U.S. companies seek anti-subsidy tariffs on imports from nations the Treasury Department finds to be engaged in competitive devaluation of their currencies. While no nation currently meets that criteria, the focus on “undervalued” exchange rates may signal a push in the [wider trade war](. On that note, President Donald Trump said that China’s Huawei Technologies Co., which was recently blacklisted on security concerns, could become [part of a trade deal]( between the two countries.Â
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A Tale of Three Cycles
Risk assets have staged a remarkable rebound from dark days of December, but how long can the rally last? [Here’s why we think global risk assets could become more volatile again.](
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Crude mess
Oil had its worst day of the year yesterday, [dropping almost 6%]( as the commodity got caught in the [stampede out of risky assets](. Tensions in the Middle East had helped to shelter crude from some of the worst fears on global trade as investors balanced demand concerns against a [possible supply disruption](. Clearly that balance broke yesterday amid the renewed global growth concerns. While oil is [1.2% higher at $58.62 a barrel]( this morning, the damage is clear.Â
Markets recover some losses
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.2% while Japan’s Topix index closed marginally higher, recovering from a drop of as much as 1% earlier in the session. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was up 0.7% at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time as the gauge recovered some of the losses yesterday, with miners leading the gains. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [bounce at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.327% and gold was lower.
Coming up…
U.S. durable goods orders for April are due at 8:30 a.m., with a 2% decline forecast. The Baker Hughes rig count comes at 1:00 p.m. With most investors looking to get out early for their Memorial Day weekend, Sifma is recommending the bond market close at 2:00 p.m. today. It is also a quiet day in earnings, with Foot Locker Inc. about the only notable name reporting.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Who’s [winning the trade war](? Here’s a look at the scoreboard.Â
- This shipping company [certainly isn’t](.
- Trump authorizes Barr to [declassify documents]( in “spying” probe.
- [George Soros]( takes stake in embattled money-manager GAM.
- In the Middle East, the enemy of my enemy can [still be my enemy](.
- [Mississippi floodway]( may be opened for the third time in history.
- [Lunar gold rush]( comes with a warning.
Need something to binge listen to this weekend? Check out our new podcast: From Wondery and Bloomberg, “[The Shrink Next Door](” is a story from Joe Nocera about power, control and spending three decades seeking help from someone who pretty much turns out to be the wrong person. Listen on Wondery, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
And finally, here’s what Tracy's interested in this morning
How big is China? It may seem like a weird thing to ask but I think the answer is going to be crucial in figuring out exactly how the trade war plays out and who holds the upper hand. Another way of asking this might be: is the U.S. market necessary for China's growth? It's no secret that China has gotten a leg-up in its development through technology transfers from Western companies. But the sheer size of its domestic market means it's also had [some success in developing]( home-grown technologies too (it's had failures as well). How far can that strategy go? At what point will the twin pressures of demographics and a ceiling on income start to weigh on China's domestic consumption? Will Chinese exceptionalism extend to import substitution, when so many other developing countries have failed? It seems worth thinking about. Opinions on the above questions are very divided, and the Trump administration seems to simultaneously believe that it can bring a vulnerable Chinese economy to its knees through tariffs -- but that China is also destined to overtake the U.S.
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