5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( Mnuchin says trade talks are “very productive,” May gambles on last-ditch Brexit vote, and Lyft shares debut. Details Chinese and U.S. negotiators are [checking the fine details]( of a possible agreement to end the nearly year-long trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The focus on the wording of any deal is to make sure both the English and Chinese versions are the same after U.S. officials complained that the Chinese-language text walked back or omitted some commitments made. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that talks were “[very productive](” and tweeted this morning that he [looks forward to welcoming]( China’s Vice Premier Liu He to Washington next week. Markets in Asia welcomed the positive noises from the talks, with the Shanghai Composite Index [gaining 3.2 percent]( overnight. Not Brexit day It’s March 29 and the U.K. is [not leaving the EU today](, despite years of promises. When the U.K. is actually going to leave is still a matter to be decided, with Prime Minister Theresa May putting her already twice-rejected deal to [another vote in Parliament]( later today. With only hours to go, it seems it will once again [flop]( as Northern Ireland’s DUP Party maintains its opposition to the agreement. If so, lawmakers have until April 12 to decide on a way forward, or leave without a deal on that date. Sponsor Content by PIMCO Volatility Has a Silver Lining To take advantage of increasing market volatility, investors need to be patient, defensive and flexible. PIMCO Group CIO Dan Ivascyn explains. [View Video](  Lyft debut Shares of the No. 2 U.S. ride-hailing service [opened for trading this morning]( on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker LYFT in the first big U.S. technology IPO of the year. Lyft raised about $2.34 billion, pricing shares at $72, with analysts looking for a “[decent pop](” at the open. How well the IPO does could [set the tone]( for giant tech debuts for the rest of the year, as it’s the first major listing since Snap Inc. went public in 2017. Markets rise Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.6 percent, while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.6 percent higher as the slowdown in the global bond rally and trade optimism increased hopes that a global slump could be avoided. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had gained 0.3 percent by 5:45 a.m Eastern Time with miners leading the gains while retailers were boosted by positive corporate results. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [rise at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.410 percent and gold was flat. Coming up… At 8:30 a.m., the U.S. PCE report is expected to show household income rose 0.3 percent in the month. Canada publishes GDP numbers for January at the same time. New home sales numbers for February are forecast to show an increase to 620,000 when the figures are released at 10:00 a.m. The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index comes out at the same time. Baker Hughes publishes the latest U.S. rigcount at 1:00 p.m. while Blackberry Ltd. reports earnings today. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - Wells Fargo CEO [abruptly steps down](, succumbing to scandals. - Deutsche Bank’s merger plan [is being threatened]( by mounting opposition. - UBS banker spied [on train-journey neighbor]( to crack $15 billion deal. - WeWork lenders are [getting cold feet](. - Russia is dumping U.S. dollars to [hoard gold](. - The palladium “[bubble has burst](” with biggest drop since 2010. - A fresh look at [Apollo Moon rocks]( reveals Solar System secrets. Want the lowdown on European markets? Get the [European edition of Five Things]( in your inbox before the open, every day. And finally, here’s what Luke's interested in this morning Play ball: the 2019 MLB season is officially underway. Baseball analysis shows that more pitchers are throwing off-speed – curveballs and the like, as opposed to straight fastballs – than ever before. Statistics show it’s harder for batters to square up against those pitches and have successful outcomes. Similarly, traders optimistic on the outlook for risk assets or the economy have to contend with a curve (inversion) that might leave bulls flailing about wildly. The flattening that leads to inversion should not be thought of as fatalistic. The material curve inversions that preceded recessions before the financial crisis, the dot-com bubble, and the early 1980s and 1990s downturns, were all bear flatteners (i.e. involved higher yields, but short rates rising by more.) This inversion is the opposite. A similar kind of bull flattener happened in 1998, and there was another full cycle (Fed easing, then hikes) before the next recession. It’s ironic that this particular flavor of recession indicator is actually a hanging curve: It likely helps the U.S. domestic economy that’s been acutely embattled – housing – get back in the game. And to boot, there’s the prospect that enhanced prepayments and refi activity are [actually what helped drive the 10-year yield below its three-month counterpart]( in the first place. “Refi rates are almost all under 4 percent,” [wrote]( Robert Baird & Co.’s Michael Antonelli, referencing Wells Fargo’s offerings in particular. “I did a poll a while back and a lot of you had mortgages with > 4 percent rates. Guys…” Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. 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