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The U.S. is pushing to get a trade deal done, central banks are being patient and Elon Musk delivers on a promise. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.
Playing chicken
There's a degree of caution in the room as the U.S. [pushes]( to get a final trade deal signed with China in the next few weeks, even as debate rages about whether to push Beijing for more concessions and talks turn [to chicken](. Trump has challenges to contend with on North Korea too. Even after the collapse of this week's summit, leader Kim Jong Un says he's [willing to meet again](. If it happens, Kim will face more [pressure at home](, as critics raise doubts about his strategy.
Wait and see
Central banks around the world are embracing the virtue of patience with both arms. Federal Reserve policymakers have said the U.S. economy is in a pretty good place but with risks to the downside, therefore any more interest rate hikes [will be dependent]( on incoming data quelling concerns about the outlook. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, is seen [taking its time]( deciding on whether the slowdown in the regionâs economy is sufficient to warrant taking policy action or reviving some form of long-term loans for the banking sector. Weak [underlying inflation]( isnât making that decision any easier.
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God giveth and God taketh away
Elon Musk is still burning cash, but at least heâs delivering on one big promise -- a $35,000 Model 3. Tesla probably wonât post a profit in the first quarter, contradicting several of his past predictions that the company would earn money from now on. That was the[take-away]( as the Tesla chief executive announced the long-awaited cheaper Model 3, along with a plan to trim costs by closing stores and cutting more jobs. Analysts were a [little skeptical]( about the challenges the new Tesla model will face. They also raised questions about [whether the firm is shifting]( its rooftop solar strategy, again.
Friday feeling
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index [gained ground]( as the latest economic data from China offered some reassurance to investors concerned about the global growth outlook, after [disappointing numbers]( earlier in the week. In Japan, the Topix index closed 0.5 percent higher. The good vibes spread to Europe too, where the Stoxx 600 and all the regional indexes are in the green, with a similarly positive feeling likely to prevail in the U.S. as S&P 500 futures point to a higher open.
Coming Up
U.S. factories data will be closely scrutinized, particularly following the [biggest slump]( in euro-area orders for six years and a [similarly gloomy](, Brexit-muddled picture in the U.K. But the U.S. numbers arenât the only game in town as weâll get rig count data from Baker Hughes plus GDP and manufacturing numbers from Canada. Itâll be thinner on the earnings front, with updates due from sneaker merchant Foot Locker Inc. and broadcaster Tribune Media Co.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- The collapse of a favorite Wall Street trading [strategy](.
- Bill Gross opens up about his [autism](.
- How cobalt markets [fell victim]( to the allure of electric cars.
- A Robert Rauschenberg painting [depicting JFK]( could return 300,000%.
- [Clash]( of market believers and skeptics.
- It was a bad week for [world leaders](.
- The Trump economy is looking quite a lot like the Obama [economy](.Â
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And finally, hereâs what Luke's interested in this morning
Two JPMorgan bigwigs spoke about the economic backdrop and recession risk this week, and their views were starkly different. Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank [was âprepared for a recessionâ](even though heâs not predicting one, with a presentation indicating the company wouldnât growth its loan book as quickly and would focus on high-quality opportunities. Bob Michele, CIO on the asset management side, struck a contrasting chord in an interview on Bloomberg TV. The riskiest investment grade debt â BBBs â and high yield credit are still great places to be even after the early-year strong returns, he said. âAs long as thereâs no recession on the horizon â and we donât see one for the next couple years, and the Fedâs dovish tilt has certainly pushed out the cycle a bit â things look pretty good, companies will be able to service their debt,â he said of BBBs. The opposing views speak to the gap in responsibilities and priorities of corporate treasurers versus investors in corporates. Even though corporate bonds arenât the most liquid asset class, a credit portfolio is a heck of a lot nimbler than a bank balance sheet. Jamie Dimonâs position is why investors are so chuffed about owning bank debt â financial institutions are still scarred from the crisis, and balance sheet quality has never been anything but top-of-mind in a bid to avoid left-tail outcomes. Bob Micheleâs take speaks to how portfolio managers aim to make money in credit, so long as the expansion continues on.
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