5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( Hopes for Korean nuke deal torpedoed, China PMIs interrupt growth rally, and Ray Dalio cuts odds of a U.S. recession. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today. Know when to fold 'em President Donald Trump’s talks with North Korea ended with his abrupt [exit](after the two sides couldn’t agree on a deal to relieve Pyongyang of U.S. sanctions in exchange for giving up much of its nuclear-weapons program. Kim Jong Un’s offer to dismantle the nation’s main nuclear facility was too small of a concession to trade for a full lifting of sanctions, according to Trump. “Sometimes you have to walk,” he said at a news conference in Hanoi after negotiations ended early. The president [showed]( he “knows when to walk away” in the White House situation room with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi last month. Uh-Oh Bullish market bets on a Sino-driven rebound in global manufacturing may be wishful thinking. China’s latest purchasing managers index, the first official gauge for February, showed[activity]( slumped further below the 50 mark that signifies contraction to 49.2, while new export orders also slid. All that underscores fears that optimism in financial markets appears at odds with the real economy. Copper, often used as a growth barometer, declined as did mining shares in Europe. Sponsor Content by PIMCO Late Cycle vs. End Cycle Investing [PIMCO 2019 Asset Allocation Outlook:]( Learn how PIMCO is positioning portfolios in light of our outlook for the global economy and markets.  Wall Street loves you, Jay Praise for Jerome Powell’s dovish pivot continues to roll in, with the latest vote of confidence from billionaire Ray Dalio. The head of the largest U.S. hedge fund firm said the chance of a U.S. [recession]( before the next presidential election is about 35 percent compared with odds at more than 50 percent about 18 months ago. In a LinkedIn note, Dalio said the Fed can manage a [“big sag”]( in the U.S. economy with a return to quantitative easing. Powell told lawmakers Wednesday that he’ll soon announce a plan to [stop](shrinking the $4 trillion balance sheet. Post-Fed pivot, Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners scaled back fears over an imminent contraction while Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management projects a[mild](one in 2020. Markets mixed Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped 0.7 percent as China data and geo-political fears weighed on sentiment. In Japan, the Topix index closed 0.8 percent lower. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index sank 0.4 percent at 5:55 a.m. led by miners. S&P 500 futures pointed to [a drop at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.67 percent and gold was up.  Coming Up Investors will get a sense of how the market meltdown in the fourth quarter hit U.S. business activity and consumer confidence with the delayed GDP [print]( at 8:30 a.m. In central-bank land, Fed officials including Robert Kaplan, Richard Clarida, Raphael Bostic and Patrick Harker are all due to make pronouncements at various economic gatherings. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - Princeton alums are sellers of $100 million art [trove](. - Alibaba sees more China-Hollywood [deals](. - India and Pakistan have lost control of the [narrative](. - Tech can’t [drive]( the U.S. economy forever. - Africa’s [richest](man in $17 billion bid for immortality. - No one is safeguarding your [DNA](. - Scientists brew cannabis using hacked beer [yeast](. Want the lowdown on European markets? Get the [European edition of Five Things]( in your inbox before the open, every day. And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning A few weeks ago, Silicon Valley venture capitalist Paul Graham [tweeted](: "Try this thought experiment: If new technology suddenly made it cheap to fix climate change, would Ocasio-Cortez stop wanting to raise taxes? I would guess not. I think the desire to raise taxes precedes the choice of how to spend the money." Whether you agree with Graham or not (he thinks this is bad) he's onto something important, which is that politicians are becoming more comfortable with the idea that tax policy is about more than just raising revenue for the government to spend. When I recently [interviewed Elizabeth Warren](, she explained that a key point of her wealth tax was not the money raised, per se, but that it would help improve democracy by reducing concentrated economic power and therefore concentrated political power. The way our system is set up is designed around the premise that the purpose of taxation is to pay for spending priorities. That's what all those Congressional Budget Office estimates of the cost of various bills are all about. To make sure bills are paid for. But one thing I expect to emerge from this coming Presidential race is that we'll hear more about taxes as being worthwhile in their own right, because there's some ostensible benefit to reducing the wealth and incomes of the wealthy, and not just about what those taxes can be spent on. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. [Learn more](. 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