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Another round of trade talks begins in Washington, Trumpâs wall faces a raft of legal challenges, and Brexit negotiations âin Godâs hands.âÂ
More talks
Talks between China and the U.S. toward a trade agreement [restart in Washington today](, with Vice Premier Liu He scheduled to meet U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Feb. 21-22. Steve Censky, the Department of Agricultureâs Deputy Secretary, said at an industry conference yesterday that talks are â[picking up](â ahead of the March 1 deadline for the imposition of new tariffs, despite few [obvious signs of progress]( to date.Â
Legal challengesÂ
California is leading 16 states as they [sue to block President Donald Trump]( using emergency powers to pay for his promised border wall. The move will come as no surprise to the White House, with Trump saying he would be [challenged in court]( over the decision when he announced it on Friday. Meanwhile, Congress is still mulling its own legal and legislative options to challenge the president. Also on Trumpâs desk is a probe into whether [imported vehicles pose a national security threat](. The president has 90 days to decide whether to impose up to [25 percent tariffs]( on such vehicles, a move that would be likely to start a [trade war with Europe](.Â
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Deadline approaching
The long-standing March 29 deadline is fast approaching, with negotiators battling to clinch a deal for the [U.K.âs exit from the European Union](. Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that âwe are in Godâs handsâ as an agreement continues to be elusive. The main sticking point is still the contentious Irish border backstop, with both sides working on a [new legal text]( to try to find a breakthrough. Meanwhile, the path to a deal could be further complicated by the [shifting political landscape]( in the U.K.Â
Markets quiet
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1 percent while Japanâs Topix index closed 0.3 percent higher after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said a stronger yen could force [further monetary stimulus](. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3 percent lower by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with banks [coming under pressure]( following disappointing results from HSBC Holdings Plc. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [slightly weaker open]( after the holiday break, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.663 percent and gold was higher.
Coming upâ¦
While there are no major decisions this week, itâs going to be a busy time for central-bank watchers with minutes from the most recent Fed and ECB meetings due. There are also several speakers to watch including the ECBâs vice-president and chief economist, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gives an address on the economic outlook at 8:50 a.m. Away from monetary policy, Walmart Inc. is scheduled to report results today, which may give further clues as to the health of U.S. retail.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Odd Lots: This is what the [tech bubble]( looked like in the 17th century.
- Treasury levels seen as â[danger](â by Templetonâs Desai.
- Global equities still [better value than bonds](, Lazard Asset says.
- How the Fed can make a [better dot plot](.
- Investors wonder [who is safe in Russia]( after fund manager arrest.
- OPEC, Allies reset oil cuts. About half are [keeping the bargain](.
- New Universe map unearths [300,000 more galaxies](.
Want the lowdown on European markets? Get the [European edition of Five Things]( in your inbox before the open, every day.
And finally, hereâs what Luke's interested in this morning
U.S. investors might have missed some potentially big news if they took an extra-long weekend. Chinese stimulus is beginning to show up in the data in a meaningful way, which could nip a repeat of 2018âs divergence trade in the bud. Total social [financing]( â a broad gauge of credit growth â in the worldâs second-largest economy rose by a record in January, attributable to a combination of policy easing and seasonal factors. The four major Chinese benchmarks proceeded to push into overbought [territory](. Strong inflows into emerging market assets â pushing them into âmost crowded tradeâ [status](, per BAML â suggest that investors were ready to bet on such an inflection point ahead of any positive turn. That makes it all the more important to watch Europe, seen by some as a derivative play on China and global trade, to see whether any potential enthusiasm about a global reflationary rebound extends to locales where sentiment has long been sour. SocGenâs Klaus Baader believes surveys released this week, including flash PMI readings, will begin to show that the continent is âreaching a turning point." Indeed, while the ZEW gauge of current conditions in Germany continues to deteriorate, investor confidence about the forward outlook is less dim. A larger point: a resolution of most major global headline risks â the Chinese slowdown, trade angst, and even Brexit (as much as it matters to markets) â all seemingly stand to benefit non-U.S. assets more than their American counterparts.
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