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Itâs Fed day, 1,000 days of Brexit, and mixed signals on trade.Â
Decision time
The Federal Open Market Committee publishes its [latest monetary policy declarationÂ](at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, along with updated economic forecasts that are expected to show policy makers now see only one rate hike this year. No change in interest rates is expected today. Investors will be intensely [focused]( on the Fedâs perspective on its [inflation-targeting]( goal and the balance-sheet runoff, with Chair Jerome Powell holding a press conference 30 minutes after the decision.
How much longer?
It is [1,000 days]( since the U.K. voted to [leave the European Union](, and the biggest question remains when will the country actually exit the union. Prime Minister Theresa Mayâs office said that she [will not ask for]( a âlongâ extension to the current March 29 deadline at the summit of leaders tomorrow, with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker already suggesting there might be need for another meeting next week if an agreement cannot be reached in the coming days on the length of the Brexit delay. EU officials are playing hardball, saying that if the U.K. doesnât take part in European elections, it will be [ejected in July](.Â
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Pushback
Some U.S. trade negotiators are growing concerned about [Chinaâs shifting stance]( on trade talks, according to people familiar with the situation. Chinese officials would like stronger assurances about the lifting of tariffs after the country agreed to change their intellectual-property policies. China's threat to [cut the Boeing 737 Max]( from its list of U.S. imports, citing safety concerns, challenges its proposed plan to reduce the trade surplus. The change in tone comes as investors are growing increasingly concerned about [the health of the Chinese economy](, with the slowdown there, rather than the trade war, now seen as the bigger risk.Â
Markets quiet
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1 percent while Japanâs Topix index closed 0.3 percent higher as investors in the region digested the latest trade news ahead of the Fed decision. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3 percent lower at 5:45 a.m. with metals and energy stocks giving back some of yesterdayâs gains. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [relatively flat start to the session](, the 10-year yield was at 2.596 percent and gold was lower.
Corporate woes
Shares in Bayer AG [slumped more than 12 percent]( in trading in Frankfurt this morning after the company suffered another defeat in U.S. litigation over claims that its Roundup weedkiller causes cancer. UBS Group AG is also trading lower this morning after Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said the first quarter was â[one of the worst](â in recent history. In the U.S., the completion of the Walt Disney Co. acquisition of 21st Century Fox Inc.âs entertainment assets is likely to lead to [thousands of layoffs](.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Buy gold, sell stocks is the â[trade of the century](,â hedge fund says.
- Biden has started telling supporters he [plans to run for president](, sources say.
- Pilot who hitched a ride [saved 737]( day before deadly crash.
- Forget Tesla, itâs [Chinaâs E-buses]( that are denting oil demand.
- Gates joins Bezos as the only two members of the [$100 billion club](.
- Metals giant restarts some systems after [ransomware attack](.
- Researchers create [hydrogen fuel from seawater](.
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And finally, hereâs what Joe's interested in this morning
Obviously, the immediate question for investors is whether the Fed will be "dovish enough" today,as in dramatically lowering its dots to meet market expectations. Looking further out, though, a bigger question is whether the bank will change its framework in some way, possibly targeting average inflation over the cycle, which would theoretically indicate a greater willingness to let inflation overshoot or run hot for a while. It's the theory of the Fed and many economists that a signal like that would itself induce some greater inflation ([as it might change expectations](). However, it seems plausible such a change may mean more for financial markets than for the real economy. We know the Fed has a large influence on financial conditions (as seen in stocks and credit markets since the pivot at the end of last year) but whether the real economic pass-through is particularly powerful remains to be seen. The big picture is that benign inflation is a global phenomenon across developed economies. Just today we got [U.K. inflation coming in below 2 percent yet again](, confirming a broad downtrend since early 2018. Obviously everyone has heard about the lack of inflation in Japan and the euro area as well. There are numerous [theories]( for what's causing this, but the idea that some modest tweak to the Fed framework will really move the needle seems far-fetched. Any shift toward a more dovish framework seems much more likely to benefit stockholders than cause some major shift in prices.
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