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Democrats to reject Trumpâs latest offer to end shutdown, chances of another Brexit referendum rise, and the World Economic Forum kicks off.Â
Day 32
Thereâs still no sign that the longest government shutdown in U.S. history is ending as [House Democrats say they will reject]( legislation Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is expected to put forward to advance a proposal from President Donald Trump. Even with 800,000 federal workers set to miss a second paycheck at the end of this week, and absenteeism increasingly [becoming an issue](, neither side seems willing to compromise. Democrats plan their own votes in the House pushing a plan to reopen the government, which once again does not include funding for a border wall.Â
Another vote?
The U.K.âs main opposition party is backing a [series of votes in Parliament]( which includes the option for another referendum on Britainâs membership of the European Union. The move came after Prime Minister Theresa May outlined her so-called Plan B for Brexit following last weekâs defeat of the deal she had negotiated with the EU, with Plan B looking suspiciously like [trying Plan A again](. At least data on the U.K. economy this morning gives May something to be happy about: Wages are growing at the [fastest pace since 2008]( and unemployment fell to 4 percent in the three months through November.Â
Davos begins
The great and the good in the global economic community have descended on the Swiss town of Davos for the annual [World Economic Forum](. Perhaps the most notable thing about this yearâs event is the long list of [last-minute pullouts](. Trumpâs plans fell victim to the shutdown, Theresa May is staying at home to find a solution to Brexit, and French President Emmanuel Macron has his own worries. Still, you can follow all the breaking news and developments from the meeting on Bloombergâs [live blog](.Â
Markets drop
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.6 percent while Japanâs Topix index closed 0.6 percent lower as investors in the region reassessed their earlier optimism over a breakthrough on trade between the U.S. and China. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3 percent lower at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time with the banking sector the biggest loser following [disappointing earnings]( from Switzerlandâs UBS Group AG. S&P 500 futures were pointing to a [drop at the open]( following yesterdayâs holiday. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.757 percent and gold was higher.Â
Coming upâ¦
Itâs a quiet day in eco data, with existing home sales numbers for December the only major indicator getting an update. Thatâs at 10:00 a.m. In earnings, itâs the turn of some blue chips to report, with Johnson & Johnson and IBM Corp. among those due to update shareholders.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Odd Lots: What the 1MDB scandal can teach us about [the nature of debt](.
- Chinaâs Xi warns party of â[serious dangers](â as risks mount.Â
- An economic winter [grips the euro](.
- France is trying to [reinvent global capitalism](.Â
- BofA's Moynihan predicts another round of [U.S. bank mergers](.
- Weakened Freedom Caucus [hustles for relevance]( in the Pelosi era.
- Maybe there is no [Planet 9]( after all.Â
And finally, hereâs what Lorcan's interested in this morning
Speaking in [Davos this morning](, billionaire hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio said the Federal Reserve got it wrong in 2018, tightening monetary policy too far. He added that a global slowdown would mean monetary policy might be easier than expected by the end of 2019. At the same event UBS Chairman Axel Weber - who [resigned as president of the Bundesbank]( over ECB asset purchase plans in 2011 - agreed with Dalio's assessment the Fed overdid it last year. They both cited the risks of a slowdown in economic activity, and considering what they both do for a living it is little wonder that they are in favor of continued easing. There is maybe a touch of not acknowledging how good they have it with their comments. Yes, the Fed tightened in 2018, and yes the ECB ended net asset purchases, but compare the market reaction to that to, for example, Greenspan's 1994 tightening. Economic data remains very strong and interest rates are still very low. Central bankers may well be encouraged by how well tightening has gone so far, and continue on the path, perhaps thinking that if they don't so it now, it may be a [long time before they get the chance again](.
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