5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( China trade data disappoints, shutdown rumbles on, and this is actually, really, a big week for Brexit. Weakening hand Latest trade data from China showed [worse-than-expected numbers](. The 7.6 percent drop in imports, the worst reading since 2016, pointed to softening demand at home, while exports fell 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier amid the trade dispute. U.S. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is set to [visit Washington]( at the end of this month in a further effort to end the stand-off between the world’s two largest economies. Shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai fell and the [yuan declined]( in the wake of the data release. Still closed There is still no end in sight to the partial government shutdown which is entering [its 24th day](. While the federal funding freeze has only hit some parts of the government, the enduring impasse is starting [to trouble analysts]( who see it risking material consequences for growth. One hotspot is air travel, with [unpaid TSA workers]( and travel [delays over the weekend](. Brexit week We may have suggested this before, but we are almost certain this time that something is going to happen on Brexit this week. Tomorrow British Prime Minister Theresa May puts her deal on exiting the European Union in front of parliament [for a vote](. While it is almost certain that she [will be defeated](, no-one knows what will will happen next. With no majority for May’s deal, or [any other scenario]( currently on the table, the most likely outcome is further parliamentary chaos, and probably a request for an [extension to the current March 29 deadline]( for leaving the bloc.  Markets drop Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.5 percent while [Chinese stocks]( were hit by the weak trade data. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.8 percent lower at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time, with tech and mining shares among the worst performers as investors weighed global growth prospects. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [loss at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.663 percent and gold was higher. Financial health-check Citigroup Inc. kicks off bank earnings season today, with the lender’s [cost-ratio outlook]( for 2019 seen as the key metric after Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach warned in December that [volatility may hinder targets](. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. report tomorrow. There is no economic data of note today. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the weekend. - Odd Lots: The plan to turn Bitcoin into a currency that [people actually use](. - Why the Fed and markets [don’t agree]( on interest-rate prospects. - Goldman outlines “[where to invest now](” in U.S. equities. - Traders suddenly dare to believe in an [emerging-markets rally](. - The next American [car recession]( has already started. - Why Libor’s end is a [headache for Switzerland](. - [Steam-powered rocket]( could explore celestial objects “forever.” And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning Risky assets are generally off to a solid start in 2019. However, after the speed of the collapse at the end of last year, nobody feels comfortable just yet giving the all clear. So what will determine what kind of year this is? [On Friday on TV, we talked to Mayank Seksaria](, a strategist at Macro Risk Advisors who basically framed the situation as "recession or rally." In other words, the market is pricing in a grim economic scenario. But if there's no recession, or no major slowdown in growth, then stocks are due for a rally. So, what could push the economy into a recession and justify current market pricing? In Seksaria's view, the one thing that may not be appreciated right now is a paradigm shift in China, where the country goes into a slowdown that the government can't stimulate its way out of. That, even more than a Fed mistake or a trade war (both of which are front and center of investors' minds), is the one big wild card people may not be prepared for. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. [Learn more](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( [SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend]]( You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022