5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( Nobody's quite sure what was agreed in Argentina, inversion in the Treasury market, and U.K. may be able to unilaterally end Brexit process. Well.., umm... Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, both tried to [dial back expectations]( and add qualifiers yesterday to President Donald Trump’s [declarations]( over elements of the deal reached with China at the G-20. The warmest Kudlow could muster was to call them “commitments” that both sides would “presumably implement”. There was [also confusion]( over when the [90-day tariff truce]( would begin, with Kudlow saying Jan. 1, which the White House later corrected to Dec. 1. The Chinese response has been most notable [due to its absence](, with bureaucrats from various government offices in Beijing awaiting the return of President Xi Jinping to the country before commenting or taking any action. Inversion! The spread between three- and five-year Treasury yields [dropped below zero yesterday](, with the two-year yield also trading higher than the five-year this morning. Markets have traditionally seen an inversion of the two- to 10-year spread as a [harbinger of doom]( – a recession – and while we are not there yet, the 10-year yield dropped below its 200-day moving average for the first time this year. While the moves come as investors reassess the outlook on how quickly the [Federal Reserve will tighten](, some analysts say they are wrong to moderate more-hawkish [assessments](. Sponsored by Cornell [Make a one-year investment in your career with the Johnson One-Year MBA, and you’ll see the results right away. The combination of a flexible curriculum, student leadership opportunities, and a tight-knit community gives you all the benefits needed to fast-track your career trajectory.](  Not Hotel California An advisory opinion from the European Union’s top court says that the U.K. could, if it wanted to, [unilaterally withdraw]( from the Brexit process. Counter-intuitively, the fact that it seems Brexit can be halted should prove a boost for U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May as she tries to get her deal through parliament. Now her threat to hard-line Brexiteers in her own party that voting down the deal may lead to no Brexit at all carries much more weight. The pound [rose]( after the opinion was published. Markets slip Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.6 percent while Japan’s Topix index closed 2.4 percent lower as the yen rallied against the dollar and electronics manufacturers remained under pressure. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3 percent lower at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time as investors pare some of yesterday’s moves due to the confusion over what was actually agreed at the G-20. S&P futures pointed to [a lower open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.955 percent and gold was higher. Coming up… It is a light day data-wise in the U.S. today. Due to tomorrow’s national day of mourning for President George H.W. Bush, scheduled releases for Wednesday have been pushed to Thursday, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s widely anticipated testimony to Congress[ postponed](. U.S. markets will also close tomorrow. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - Odd Lots: How to [analyze currency markets]( and understand the future of the dollar. - Goldman sees another [weak year for markets]( after a lousy 2018. - JPMorgan says [cash is better than stocks]( for the first time in a decade. - Rally or time out? Wall Street asks [what’s next for stocks](. - Apple to reassign marketing staff to [boost iPhone sales](. - Wall Street rule for #MeToo era: [Avoid women at all costs](. - Climate change “[greatest threat](” UN told. And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning With certain parts of the yield curve beginning to invert, and other key spreads [dramatically flattening](, there's growing chatter about when the Fed might be forced to pause. Tim Duy, a professor at the University of Oregon and a Bloomberg Opinion contributor, continues to be a must read on how the Fed sees the world right now. Here's his latest take: "In my opinion, I think we focus on the data and the Fed’s basic forecast in the context of a policy rate that is entering into the neutral zone. The strong ISM report suggests that growth is not faltering quickly if at all, which is supportive of the Fed’s current expected path. But inflation remains tame, even softening, which suggests a more dovish path... If the data continue to suggest that the pace of activity is likely to place downward pressure on the unemployment rate, they will hike deeper into the neutral range before pausing." Meanwhile, we had [Paul Krugman on TV yesterday](, and in probably one of the only times he'll agree with President Trump, he argued that the Fed should pause here, if only because there's still just no meaningful evidence that inflation is picking up. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. 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