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U.S. accuses China of IP theft ahead of G-20, OPEC's Texas problem, and market selling eases.
Unfriendly
U.S. authorities show few signs of wanting to cool the standoff with China over trade ahead of next weekâs meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping [at the G-20](. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizerâs office released a document accusing Beijing of continuing a [state-backed campaign of intellectual property and technology theft]( which it says is growing in sophistication. While Trump seems happy to keep the relationship between the worldâs two largest economies under pressure, heâs not willing to see the murder of U.S-based columnist Jamal Khashoggi [jeopardize relations with Saudi Arabia](.Â
OPEC headache
Crude is recovering some of yesterdayâs plunge this morning, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for January delivery [trading at $54.25]( by 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time, after industry data showed U.S. crude inventories fell last week. While OPEC and its allies meet in Vienna next month to discuss oil production cuts in order to stabilize prices, the problem of U.S. output looms ever larger over the global crude market. Next year, producers in the Permian basin expect to iron out distribution snags with three new pipelines which will have the potential to add as much as [2 million barrels a day]( of output. With many wells in the area profitable at $30 a barrel, any move by OPEC to lift prices could just play into U.S. hands.Â
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Markets recover
There was still something of a tech selloff hangover in Asian markets as another hit to Apple Inc. suppliers saw the MSCI Asia Pacific Index drop 0.5 percent while Japanâs Topix index closed 0.6 percent lower. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3 percent higher at 5:45 a.m. as equities in the region recovered some losses amid hopes that budget tensions between the EU and Italy may ease. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [gain at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.079 percent and gold was a little higher.Â
Itâs mostly fiscalÂ
With warning signs of a slowdown in the global economy [continuing to grow](, and central bank policy seen as [already stretched](, the OECD says the worldâs largest economies should stand ready to coordinate on fiscal stimulus. The organisation, the latest to add its voice to calls for [more policy action](, says increased discussion is needed between fiscal authorities as there is â[not much ammunition left]( in the macro tool box.â It cut its forecast for global growth for the next two years to 3.5 percent, adding that an interaction of downside risks would reduce that pace further.
Coming upâ¦
With the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. tomorrow, thereâs something of a packed economic calendar today. At 8:30 a.m. weekly jobless claims data is expected to show a slight drop to 215,000, while durable goods orders are forecast to drop by 2.6 percent. Existing home sales numbers released at 10:00 a.m. may show a slight increase. At the same time consumer comfort data and the leading index are published. Baker Hughesâs latest U.S. rig count is due at 1:00 p.m. In earnings, this morning Deere & Co. reported results that came in below estimates.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Equity contagion spreads to credit, [deepening worries on growth](.
- [Wiped-out hedge fund manager]( confesses his losses on Youtube.
- Moneyball in Switzerland: [A bidding war]( for private bankers.
- Nissan shouldnât have sold bonds [amid Ghosn probe](, investors say.
- These traders paid a [100 percent premium for Bitcoin]( at the market's top.
- Chinaâs warning to market economists: You must [toe the party line](.
- The debt-collecting machine [chewing up American small businesses](.Â
And finally, hereâs what Joe's interested in this morning
We have just under a month until the next Fed meeting, but given the recent market volatility and the drop in Fed expectations lately, it's never too soon to thinking about what they'll do next. Probably the best thing I've read lately on how the Fed sees the world right now is [this blog post from the University of Oregon's Tim Duy]( (also a [Bloomberg Opinion contributor]() about why the Fed is still on track to raise rates. He makes a good argument that for all the Sturm und Drang lately, there's been very little in the actual data that would alter the Fed's inclination to alter its path.The weird thing to me is not that the Fed won't get spooked by a few weeks of market volatility, but that it's very hard to find any evidence of overheating, or even the prospect of overheating, in the economy. And ultimately, the goal should be robust growth without overheating (whatever that means). Inflation data [remains pretty mild,]( corporate investment [is not red hot](, and we know about all of the [mediocre housing data lately](. Indeed the Bloomberg U.S. Housing and Real Estate Market Surprise Index (a measure of how real estate data is coming in relative to expectations) is at its lowest monthly level since the financial crisis. And of course real estate is seen as highly rate sensitive. So at some level, all the debate about a "Fed put" seems like a distraction from the bigger issue, which is that even prior to the volatility of the last two months, the case for action to cool the economy was never a slam dunk.
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