[Bloomberg](
Markets rally on trade deal talk, it's jobs day, and Iran oil sanction waivers announced.
Terms of trade
President Donald Trump seems to want to [reach a trade deal]( with China when he meets President Xi Jinping at the G20 next month. He has asked key U.S. officials to start drawing up potential terms for a deal, according to four people familiar with the matter. While initial market reaction to the news has been very positive, with [Asian equities rallying]( and the yuan strengthening, analysts are warning that there is still a lot of work to do before [anything concrete]( is agreed.Â
Payrolls
Economists expected the U.S. to have added 200,000 new positions in October, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7 percent and average hourly earnings rising by 3.1 percent from a year earlier. The data, which is due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, is forecast to show a [return to the trend]( in place before Septemberâs Hurricane-Florence distorted numbers. Speaking of trends, one interesting thing that is showing up in the numbers is the [disappearance of 25-34 year old men]( from the workforce.Â
Waiver
The U.S. will grant eight countries -- including Japan, India and South Korea â temporary waivers from its [sanctions on Iran]( allowing them to [continue imports of the countryâs crude](, according to a senior U.S. official. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo will officially announce the number of exemptions later today. The news comes as crude prices remain under pressure, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for December delivery trading at $63.63 by 5:40 a.m. as the commodity remained set for its [biggest weekly loss]( since February.Â
Markets rally
The trade talk helped shares surge in the overnight session with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbing 2.6 percent and Japanâs Topix index closing 1.6 percent higher. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index had gained 0.9 percent by 5:40 a.m. and was poised for its [biggest weekly advance]( since the end of 2016. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [bounce at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.167 percent and gold rose.Â
Coming upâ¦
While payrolls will grab the headlines today, there are a few other things worth watching. At 8:30 a.m. the U.S. trade balance for September is published, with durable goods and factory orders for the same month due at 10:00 a.m. Canadian October unemployment is due at 8:30 a.m. At 1:00 p.m. Baker Hughesâs latest rig count is released. In Europe, results of the latest [bank stress test]( are due after markets there close. Earnings today include Alibaba Group Holdings, Exxon Mobil Corp., and Chevron Corp.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Election 2018: The [races to watch]( and how to follow them.
- Chinaâs growing clout triggers [economic arms race]( with old order.
- Senate panel seeks FBI briefing on [Super Micro hacking report](.
- Apple will stop reporting [iPhone unit sales](.
- The [little-known banker]( shaking up Germanyâs beleaguered lenders.
- How Singlesâ Day became [biggest shopping spree]( ever.Â
- A [massive shift](.Â
And finally, hereâs what Luke's interested in this morning
For the drivers of U.S. yields, itâs seemingly supply â and the Federal Reserve â against the world. The Treasury announced an increase in sales of longer-term debt [to $83 billion]( for the fourth quarter, topping the amount sold during the [throes of the financial crisis](. Fiscal stimulus is having a two-pronged impact on the bond market. It contributes to rising yields through enhanced supply, but also via the Fedâs reaction function in the face of the stronger growth that results from that stimulus. The Fed is [intent on raising its policy rate]( beyond levels that will prevail over the longer term, should domestic conditions continue to hold up. On the flip side, the headwinds toward higher Treasury yields are pretty stiff. Thereâs persistent fears about Europe, a swoon in stocks and oil,underwhelming global activity, as well as the potential that the recent U.S. growth spurt is the [best itâll get for this cycle](.
Global leaders will gather in Singapore for the inaugural New Economy Forum Nov. 6 - 7. The event, set up by Michael Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, aims to solve the world's biggest challenges through coalition building, analysis and expert perspectives.
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