5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( It's election day in the U.S., European growth comes under pressure, and May tries again to reach a Brexit deal. Vote Welcome to election day. When the [polls close this evening](, we will start to find out if the Democrats have done enough to flip the House, or if President Donald Trump’s [vigorous campaigning]( has been enough to help the Republicans retain control of Congress. The mostly likely scenario projected by pollsters – a Democrat-controlled House and a GOP Senate – is [seen by markets as the base case]( and an outcome that would do little to upset equities. Downbeat A composite purchasing managers index for the euro area fell to 53.1 in October, the [lowest level since September 2016](, while a gauge of business expectations was at the weakest level since 2014. A composite index for Italy dropped to 49.3, indicating a contraction, while there was better news for Germany where data showed an [unexpected rise]( in factory orders. The slowdown in the region comes as global trade fears continue to weigh on sentiment. Speaking at Bloomberg’s New Economy Forum in Singapore, Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan said that Beijing remained [ready to talk to the U.S.]( on trade but warned that the country wouldn’t be “bullied and oppressed by imperialist powers.” Sponsored by Cornell [With Johnson’s unique immersion learning approach, you’ll be able to focus your studies on an industry of your choice in your first year. Whether you’re a career enhancer or career switcher, you’ll chart a path that will lead you to make the biggest impact. Discover the Johnson Two-Year MBA.](  Brexit Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is [redoubling her efforts]( to secure a Brexit deal this month. The key issue of the Northern Ireland border remains the [main stumbling block](. The options now available mean that either the U.K. stays in the customs union for an extended period, or it allows Northern Ireland to have a separate customs arrangement with the European Union – both of which are seen as unpalatable by the [Brexit-supporting members]( of May’s cabinet. However, those concerns may be overruled by the economic reality of leaving the EU [without a deal](. Markets mixed Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.8 percent while Japan’s Topix index closed 1.2 percent higher, with Toyota Motor Corp. leading gains after boosting its profit outlook. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2 percent lower at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time in a fairly broad-based selloff amid lower-than-usual volumes. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [drop at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.195 percent and gold was higher. Coming up… While election coverage will dominate the news today, there are a few other things worth keeping an eye out for. The Treasury department is due to sell $106 billion of short-term bills at 11:30 a.m. and $27 billion of 10-year notes at 1:00 p.m. The oil market, where prices have [been under pressure lately](, will get both the EIA’s energy outlook and API U.S. inventory data today. In earnings, Eli Lilly & Co., CVS Health Corp. and Papa John’s International are among companies reporting. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - News and analysis from the [New Economy Forum](. - Yellen says the [fight against inequality]( starts with full employment. - Global [trade tracker](: Steady, but for how long? - Hedge fund manager [stakes own cash]( on a bet against credit ETFs. - Trump’s trade war is making Russia and China [comrades again](. - How Bill Gates aims to save $233 billion by [reinventing the toilet](. - [Robot laws](. And finally, here’s what Tracy's interested in this morning By this time tomorrow, we should be getting early results of the midterm elections. Of course, much of the debate for markets has been whether or not the results -- widely viewed as a referendum on Trump's presidential performance so far -- will matter at all for investors. There's a lot to suggest they shouldn't. Ben Emons at Intellectus Partners points us to the chart below showing that the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index has basically peaked every time Trump's approval rating made a significant dip. One read is that the economy is doing just fine independently of Trump and people feel that. An alternative view: Aggregate confidence measures are masking deep divisions between groups of people and while sentiment among one group (small business owners) may be chugging along nicely, others are growing more aggrieved. On this front, people have noted over and over that Republican consumer confidence has [massively outperformed]( the same measure for Democrats. Either way, it's a strange place for investors to be in: Either Trump matters enormously for sentiment (but in different ways for different groups) or he doesn't. Global leaders will gather in Singapore for the inaugural New Economy Forum Nov. 6 - 7. The event, set up by Michael Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, aims to solve the world's biggest challenges through coalition building, analysis and expert perspectives. Join the community by watching livestreams of the panel discussions and follow [Twitter](, [Facebook]( and [LinkedIn]( for the latest information. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( [SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend]]( You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022