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Pompeo arrives in Saudi Arabia, a big day for bank earnings, and no sign of a Brexit deal yet.
Saudi crisis
U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo [arrived in Saudi Arabia]( this morning as the kingdom remains under pressure to explain the disappearance of writer Jamal Khashoggi after entering its embassy in Turkey. Media reports suggest that authorities in Riyadh are considering saying that the journalist died in a [botched interrogation](. [Foreign direct investment]( â a key plank of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salmanâs turnaround plan for the economy â could be hit by the crisis. Oil [is giving up]( some of yesterdayâs gains in this morningâs trade.Â
Goldman, Morgan Stanley
It is a red-letter day for bank earnings in the U.S. with both Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley reporting quarterly results before the bell. With lender results so far this earnings season proving [something of a mixed bag](, investors are having a harder than usual time anticipating what the figures this morning [will look like](. Netflix Inc.âs report after the bell will also be closely watched amid the [continued tech selloff](.Â
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50:50
European leaders gather as hopes of a breakthrough on Brexit negotiations this week remain very low, with Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics telling reporters than he sees a 50-50 chance of talks [failing to reach any deal]( ahead of the U.K.âs exit from the bloc next March. While both sides still talk like they want to forge an agreement, the issues of the Northern Ireland border and the so-called âbackstopâ are [proving intractable](. There was some good news for the U.K. economy this morning when data showed unemployment remained at a multi-decade low of 4 percent, while wages grew at the [strongest pace since 2009](.Â
Stocks rise
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent while Japanâs Topix index closed 0.7 percent higher as the regionâs gauges started to recover from the recent selloff. In Europe, it was a similar story, with the Stoxx 600 Index rising 0.4 percent by 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time with Italian stocks among the best performers. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [higher open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.171 percent and gold held recent gains.Â
New bill
At 11:30 a.m., the Treasury [debuts]( a new eight-week note with a $25 billion sale of the security, adding to its funding dashboard to help finance the [budget deficit](. In economic data today, U.S. September industrial production is due at 9:15 a.m. JOLTS job openings is at 10:00 a.m., and Treasury International Capital flows are at 4:00 p.m.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- China may have [$5.8 trillion]( in hidden debt with âTitanicâ risks.
- Goldman says [dollar reserve position]( hit by U.S. sanctions.
- Why hedge funds will stick with ever-risky [short volatility trades](.
- Pot stocks climb to [record high]( with legalization imminent.
- The dirt on [clean electric cars](.
- Paul Allen, billionaire who co-founded Microsoft, [dies at 65](.
- Climate change is [coming for your beer](.Â
And finally, hereâs what Joe's interested in this morning
Yesterday, it was reported that in Trump's first full fiscal year as president that the U.S. budget deficit grew to $779 billion, [the highest level since 2012](. The widening deficit, predictably, alarmed pundits, who pointed out how crazy it was that the government was this much in the red [when the economy is doing so well](. On some level, it's true. It is weird for the deficit to be expanding at the same time as the unemployment rate is falling. However, people should at least be open to another interpretation of events: the unemployment rate has continued to fall at a pace much sharper than many economists expected precisely, or at least in part, because of ongoing fiscal stimulus. When Trump did the tax cuts and increased spending, there were a number of economists who said it was a mistake to do so at a time when the economy was at "full employment." Inflation would soon be in the cards, they warned. Since then, however, the unemployment rate has fallen and price pressures have been subdued, suggesting more slack than many believed -- thus justifying more spending. Of course, you can argue with the composition of the tax cuts, and whether they would've done even more had they been more tilted towards the lower and middle classes, who have a greater marginal propensity to consume. But on the face of it, there's not much evidence that the economy didn't have the room to absorb the added money.
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