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China set to cut import tariffs more, little progress on Brexit at summit, and OPEC has a problem.
Cuts
Premier Li Keqiang said China would reduce tariffs on imports in a move seen as an effort to lower costs for consumers as the trade war with the U.S. heats up. Two people familiar with the plan said the cuts will target [average tariff rates](from the majority of Chinaâs trading partners as soon as next month. The move follows a [similar reduction in July](. Meanwhile, hopes remain low of any resolution of the standoff, with many commentators expecting [things to get worse]( in the short term.Â
Not there yet
There was no breakthrough in negotiations over the U.K.âs exit from the European Union at an informal summit in Austria, with the French and German leaders [striking a downbeat tone]( in the wake of the meeting. British Prime Minister Theresa May told EU leaders there would be [no second referendum](, no extension to talks, and that the U.K. will leave the bloc next March. The lack of progress doesnât seem to have hurt markets much, with the pound approaching a [two-month high]( this morning.
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OPEC problem
The oil market continues to be pulled in two directions as U.S. production coupled with todayâs announcement that Russian output has jumped to a [new post-Soviet peak]( keeps pressure on prices. Sanctions [crippling Iran exports]( and continuing problems in Venezuela mean global supply concerns persist. All this means that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which is having a meeting in Algiers on Sunday, will have a lot to consider as it tries to [extend production]( limits into 2019.Â
Markets rise
Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.2 percent while Japanâs Topix index closed little changed to round off the [best week in two years]( for the countryâs equities. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.5 percent higher at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time, with [banks among the best performers](. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [gain at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.070 percent and gold was unchanged.Â
New face at the Fed
President Donald Trump plans to [nominate Nellie Liang](, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute in Washington and a former Federal Reserve economist, to the central bankâs Board of Governors, the White House announced yesterday. The selection of Liang has been widely welcomed as she has a strong background in financial stability and has previously worked closely with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Looming money-market shift has [big implications]( for risk assets.
- [Gundlach is right](. Surging U.S. bond yields are met with shrugs.
- Danske chairman says âlargeâ part of $234 billion [is suspicious](.
- New CEO plans cuts to [mend Deutsche Bank](.
- Meet the [men marijuana made]( into millionaires and billionaires.
- Jack Ma says he canât create [one million jobs]( after all.
- Spockâs home world [has been discovered]( (sort of).Â
And finally, hereâs what Joe's interested in this morning
Weed stocks. Sorry, it's really hard to not talk about them right now. Yesterday in this space I mentioned how financial markets are increasingly resembling a video game (at least for many active participants) and then Tilray had one of the craziest days anyone has ever seen, at one point surging by nearly 100 percent and getting halted five times for volatility. Obviously it's fun to spend all day looking at a screen, watching that line go up and down like crazy, but there are some interesting numbers investors should look at, too. One analyst group expects [the entire global legal market for cannabis will be just $32 billion by 2022](. And yesterday on TV we talked to Andrew Kessner, an analyst at William O'Neil & Co., who is overall bullish on the space and sees a legal cannabis market across North America worth about $40 billion in 2025. The country's three biggest marijuana stocks (Tilray, Canopy, and Cronos) already have a market cap of about $40 billion. In other words, three stocks are worth the same as the expected entire North American market seven years out. And we're just talking about revenue here and not at all about margins. I don't know enough to predict how profitability will look, [but data from Oregon]( (where recreational marijuana is legal) shows that while volume sales continue to rise this year, dollar sales are basically flatlining. The trouble is, you can call this market overly exuberant if you like, but that won't stop you from getting wrecked if you're short -- or feeling major FOMO pangs if someone you know has already made a fortune buying calls on Tilray.
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