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[Bloomberg]( Trump has a bad day, Fed minutes due, and the SEC is not comfortable in the spotlight. Two down President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman became a convicted felon and his longtime lawyer implicated him in a crime at [almost the same moment]( yesterday. The conviction of [Paul Manafort]( on eight counts of tax and bank fraud charges gives a boost to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. Michael D. Cohen said that he violated [campaign-finance laws]( ahead of the 2016 election, at the direction of then-candidate Trump. The scandals surrounding the president will be seized on by Democrats ahead of the mid-term elections in November where they are seeking to gain [control of the House](. Two down The minutes of Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting three weeks ago will be published at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, with investors seeking hints about the likely [path of interest rates]( for the rest of year. Two [hikes]( are already in the bag while futures contracts point to two more before year-end, so any hint of a shift in outlook will be important. The president’s recent criticism of the Fed has investors looking at the implications of a slowdown in the pace of policy tightening, and concluding it would be [bad for American assets](. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole conference [on Friday](. Sponsored Content by Siemens Imagine test-flying a zero-emission airplane before actually building it. Or constructing a power grid stronger than the worst storms. Siemens digital technology unlocks the potential for software and artificial intelligence to solve America’s great challenges. So business owners can increase production, hospital patients get better care faster, and city residents breathe cleaner air. These technologies make real what matters for one town, one business, or one family. Visit [usa.siemens.com]( to learn about digital ingenuity from Siemens.  @SEC_News Elon Musk’s Aug. 7 tweet about taking Tesla Inc. private is causing something of [a headache]( at the Securities and Exchange Commission. The agency, which normally likes to work in the background until it decides whether or not laws have been broken, is in the spotlight as it [investigates](, with its reputation at stake if Musk avoids sanction. The future of Tesla shareholders is uncertain as Morgan Stanley became the second firm yesterday to [suspend coverage of the stock](, without explaining why. Honey-badger markets Global equities seem not to care about the problems facing Trump. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4 percent, while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.8 percent higher as technology shares rebounded from yesterday’s selloff. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was unchanged at 5:50 a.m. in light trading. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [drop at the open]( after yesterday’s [intraday record high](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.824 percent, and gold was higher. Trade The U.S. and Mexico are moving [closer to a consensus]( on a framework for a new North American Free Trade Agreement, according to several people with the matter, though some key hurdles remain to be cleared. While there may be some progress, Trump remains defiant on trade with both the EU and China, repeating a threat to put a 25 percent tariff on European car imports and slamming duties [Beijing imposes on U.S. autos](. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - Play the game and pick [your own Brexit outcome](. - What’s holding back [American wages](? - It’s complicated: New [pound-FTSE relationship]( is a bad omen. - Optimism underpins [bund bulls](, but little else supports them. - Pimco veteran says [recession possible]( in as early as three years. - Trump, a [currency manipulator](? Wall Street isn’t ruling it out. - The history of all life on earth [in one chart](. And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning In chapter 12 of the General Theory, John Maynard Keynes [introduces the concept of animal spirits](, writing, "Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation..." This insight that economic activity can't just be reduced to quantitative inputs, but is unstable due to the vagaries of human nature may prove helpful in understanding the economy right now. Consider this: perceptions about the strength of the labor market are at their best level since early 2001. It stands to reason that an employed person in 2018 will feel more confident about spending than that employed person in 2010, as they look around at extremely low levels of unemployment, few layoffs and plenty of job openings. As more and more people (finally) have this feeling of economic security, one might expect a wave of positive animal spirits to kick in. And indeed people are [spending money at restaurants at the fastest pace since 1992](. Yesterday after the bell, shares of the furniture company La-Z-Boy surged to an all-time high after the company [reported]( stellar earnings. Meanwhile a number of retailers like [Walmart]( (at the lower end) and [Nordstrom]( (at the higher end) also had great quarters. People keep wanting to call the end of this expansion for all kinds of reasons (the tax cuts rolling off, higher rates, trade concerns and so on). But as Keynes pointed out, you can't just assess the economy based on mathematical expectation. [With growth now looking the strongest since 2005]( and the consumer feeling good, this ballgame just might go to extra innings. Join top institutional investors in Boston to discuss where indexing is heading and the right mix of passive and active strategies to generate alpha. [Register today](. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. [Learn more.]( [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( [SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend]]( You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things newsletter. [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022 If you believe this has been sent to you in error, please safely [unsubscribe](.