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Trump hits out at Powell, Europe and China, economists see continued strong U.S. growth for the rest of the year, and markets are higher.
Wrong way Powell
President Donald Trump lamented to wealthy donors at a Hamptons fundraiser that Jerome Powell raised rates instead of being the [cheap-money Fed chairman]( heâd sought, according to three people present at Fridayâs event. In an interview with Reuters, Trump doubled down on the comments saying that he âshould be [given some help]( by the Fed.â The dollar weakened following the publication of the comments, with the euro [trading above $1.1500]( for the first time in almost two weeks this morning.Â
Manipulation
The Fed chairman wasnât the only one to be on the receiving end of Trumpâs criticism. He also accused China and the European Union of [currency manipulation](, going a step further than the Treasury Department which stopped short of naming names in its most recent report published in April. Low-level trade talks between the U.S. and China are expected to [resume this week](, while warnings over the [outcome of the trade dispute]( continue to come from industry leaders.Â
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Growth outlook
Economists forecast that the U.S. economy is set to grow this year at the [fastest pace since 2005](, with a second-half expansion of 3 percent or more. Despite [lagging wages](, consumer confidence [remains strong]( as personal finances are in good health, with a savings rate at an average 6.7 percent. The positive outlook for the rest of the year comes with some caveats, chief among them the possible fallout from trade tariffs and how much Fed policy will cool growth.  Concerns about the [housing market]( were also raised as the lack of affordable accommodation could become a drag.Â
Markets rise
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4 percent while Japanâs Topic index closed 0.4 percent lower as telecommunications stocks were hit after a government spokesman said mobile service providers have room to cut customer bills by 40 percent. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3 percent higher at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time in a broad-based rebound. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [gain at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.837 percent and gold was up.
Coming upâ¦
Very little on the slate again today. The S&P 500 Index is closing in on an all-time high, ending yesterdayâs session [15 points below]( a record level. For stock market watchers, there is something interesting happening in the options market where investors are [seeking protection]( from both an extreme rally or crash in U.S. stocks. The Treasury is scheduled to sell $70 billion of 4-week bills at 11:30 a.m., and Trump speaks in West Virginia later.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- U.S. sanctions stress [already-battered]( emerging markets.
- Microsoft finds [Russia again targeting]( U.S. political groups.
- Doors [slam shut]( for China deals around the world.
- Euro goes from bane to boon for struggling [European stocks](.
- Worldâs [biggest wealth fund]( struggles under weight of trade war.
- Apple is planning a new [low-cost Macbook](, pro-focused Mac mini.
- âLazyâ approach [may be best]( for some jobs.Â
And finally, hereâs what Joe's interested in this morning
What is the significance of [President Trump's criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell]( for hiking rates? Here's two thoughts: The first is (and I've said this before) that I'm not convinced that Powell is more hawkish than Yellen. For one thing, in the past he's been open to the idea that running the economy hot could help heal some deeper structural issues (by forcing companies to invest more). Also, he's not a trained academic economist, so it's possible he might end up more data-dependent than Yellen, because he'll be less attached to what models say should be happening, rather than what is. Secondly, what of the big-picture implications of a President openly criticizing a Fed Chairman? To me, trying to tease out some direct consequence is kind of silly. It seems unlikely that the comments will have any effect on policy. Everyone on the FOMC seems to be professional. But long-term, this is a change in how things have been done in the U.S. and eventually that could have unforeseen results. I think of it kind of like the President's trade actions. We don't really now how big of a deal they will be, and whether they'll be inflationary (because they raise prices) or deflationary (if they slow the economy). All we know is that change is coming. And the overarching conclusion is that slow, tectonic shifts may be getting underway for huge segments of the American economy.
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