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Crunch time for Iran deal, oil over $70 for first time since 2014, and Giuliani says Mueller interview would be a trap.
Decision time
Over the weekend both sides [made their final pitches]( on the Iran deal, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying the agreement is [fatally flawed](, while Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned that the U.S. would face â[historic](â regret if it pulled out of the 2015 accord. Britainâs Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson [travels to Washington]( this week to try to salvage the pact, following in the footsteps of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The deadline for President Donald Trump to renew the deal is May 12.Â
Oil risesÂ
A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for June delivery was trading at $70.41 by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time, rising above $70 for the first [time since November 2014]( on the month-forward contract, as traders brace for the possible reimposition of sanctions on Iran. While the increasing price of crude may be driven by Iran worries, that countryâs deputy oil minister has said that a â[suitable price](â for oilâs Brent contract would be in the $60 to $65 range, well below todayâs level of $75.50 and also far below Saudi Arabiaâs [ambition for $80](.Â
Itâs a trap
Rudy Giuliani said he is [leaning against]( making President Donald Trump available for interview with Special Counsel Robert Mueller as part of the probe into Russian meddling into the 2016 presidential election. Speaking during an appearance on ABCâs âThis Weekâ yesterday, he said such an interview would be a âtrap.â Trump isnât the only difficulty the investigation faces, with lawyers representing a firm controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has close ties to President Vladimir Putin, [going on the offensive]( to defend against charges brought by Mueller.Â
Markets rise
Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.1 percent, while Japanâs Topix index closed with a 0.1 percent gain as it traded for the first time since last Wednesday. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2 percent higher in a quiet session due to a holiday in the U.K. Energy shares outperformed amid the higher oil price and Air France-KLM [plunged more than 10 percent]( after the companyâs CEO said he plans to resign. S&P 500 futures [pointed to a higher open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.963 percent and gold was slightly lower.Â
Treasury supply, Fed speakersÂ
Itâs shaping up to be a busy week for bond markets in the U.S., with the Treasury due to sell $48 billion of 3-month bills and $42 billion of 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m. today, and a combined $73 billion of 3-, 10-, and 30-year securities [by Friday](. Speakers today include Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the weekend.
- Odd Lots:Â This is how the [paparazzi business]( really works.
- ECB repeats its warning that [a rise in trade protectionism]( would undermine the global economy.
- Chinaâs about to give global finance the [chance of a lifetime](.
- JPMorgan [casts a wary eye]( on âunhelpfulâ rates/dollar correlation.
- [Buying and holding]( the market has many pitfalls.
- Can you build a nation with [100 percent gender equality](?
- AI researchers allege that [machine learning is alchemy](.
And finally, hereâs what Joeâs interested in this morning
I'm writing this paragraph from San Francisco, where it's obvious that the labor market is extremely tight. Virtually every store you walk by has a "help wanted" sign in the window. Of course, this is occurring the national unemployment rate is near multi-decade lows, and amid San Francisco's own huge secular, tech-driven boom. Clearly, a boom is a good time to find a job. Now it's interesting that amid this strong labor market, we're seeing the concept of a [Federal Job Guarantee enter the mainstream debate](. At first, the idea that the government could guarantee everyone a good job might seem fanciful or utopian. And maybe it is wildly unrealistic. But it's worth stress testing our assumptions about how the economy must work. Why is it only during the boom (which will inevitably give way to a bust one day) that an adult can expect to find productive work? Why isn't it just the norm that somebody who wants to work will be able to during anytime in the cycle? What's the point of achieving "full employment" if that's inevitably going to represent the apex of the cycle, only to see the labor market turn down again. It's great that things are good right now for the labor market, but it's depressing to think that these are rare moments we should savor rather than, more or less, the economy's norm. Hence, even if the Job Guarantee is far-fetched, the basic debate is worth having.
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