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Trump exits Iran deal, oil rises, and it's a bad week for emerging markets.
U.S. exit
President Donald Trump said the U.S. will withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and impose the â[highest level](â of sanctions on the country. Leaders of the U.K., France and Germany, also signatories to the agreement, issued a statement saying they remained committed to the accord, while Iranian President Hassan Rouhani suggested his country would continue to abide by the deal. Among the first companies hit by Trumpâs decision are Boeing Co. and Airbus SE, with almost $40 billion in[aircraft deals]( imperiled as new sanctions mean the loss of export licenses.Â
Oil, yields jump
Following a volatile session yesterday, confirmation that the U.S. is going for a hard exit from the Iran deal has seen crude rebounding today. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for June delivery [was trading at $70.96]( at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time, with Brent at $76.86. Should oil average $70 a barrel this year, it would constitute a drag on[ U.S. growth]( equal to about half the 0.7 percentage-point GDP boost expected from the U.S. fiscal package, according to Oxford Economics. The 10-year Treasury yield is [back above 3 percent]( this morning, hitting 3.012 percent ahead of a $25 billion bond auction at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time.Â
More deals
Vodafone Group Plc has agreed to buy European units from Liberty Global Plc in an [18.4 billion-euro]( ($22 billion) deal, signaling a retreat from the region by U.S. billionaire John Malone. Masayoshi Son, chief executive officer of SoftBank Group Corp., confirmed that Walmart Inc. has agreed to buy control of Indian e-commerce giant Flipkart Online Services Pvt in a transaction valuing the online retailer [at about $20 billion](. Walt Disney Co.âs Robert Iger said he is [not afraid of a bidding war]( with Comcast Corp. for 21st Century Foxâs assets, adding that a tie-up with Disney offered the best prospects for Fox shareholders.Â
Markets mixed
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent, while Japanâs Topix index closed 0.4 percent lower despite the yen weakening against the dollar. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2 percent higher at 5:45 a.m. with energy-related shares by far the best performers on the back of rising crude prices. S&P 500 futures [pointed to a gain at the open]( and gold slipped.Â
EM headaches
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has convened a meeting of [economic decision makers](, including the head of the central bank, to address the slide in the lira, which fell to another [all-time low this morning](. Argentina is facing similar problems with the [peso selloff deepening]( yesterday, defying the central bankâs rate hike to 40 percent on Friday. President Mauricio Macri said in a televised address that he has asked the [International Monetary Fund]( for financing help to stem the rout, a move IMF chief Christine Lagarde [welcomed]( in a statement.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours
- Russian oligarch tied to Trump lawyer in [Stormy bombshell](.Â
- Hasenstab joins Dimon in betting Treasury yields [heading for 4 percent](.
- Liborâs an unkillable â[cockroach](â because credit risk is no bug.
- Sterling outlook to hinge on Carney keeping [2018 rate hike alive](.
- U.K. retail misery endures as sales decline [most on record](.
- â[Privatization](â is no longer a dirty word in Brazil, even in election year.
- One of the Milky Wayâs fastest stars is an [invader from another galaxy](.
And finally, hereâs what Joeâs interested in this morning
From time to time, you'll hear conversations that depict the Japanese economy as a basket case -- an example of horrible mismanagement which no country would ever aspire to. This is really odd. Japan's unemployment rate is extremely low (2.5 percent) and so is inflation (just 1.1 percent). And last I checked, having a country with extremely low unemployment and inflation sounds pretty good (though I'm no economist). Furthermore, as the fund manager Toby Nangle [recently pointed out on Twitter](, labor force participation rates in the country are moving sharply higher for both men and women. Many people will acknowledge these metrics as looking pretty good, but then they'll say something about the country's huge debt to GDP, the ultra-low interest-rate regime, [or how the Bank of Japan owns so many of the government's bonds](, such that on some days the debt hardly even trades. The thing is: people assert these points as if they're prima facie bad or, at a minimum, unsustainable, and that obviously both debt levels and the BOJ's balance sheet need to be shrinked while policy rates will clearly need to head up. And maybe that's all true! But it seems just as plausible that the lesson from Japan is that massive government debt and a huge central-bank balance sheet can also be a recipe for low unemployment and low inflation. At least, it certainly looks like that right now.
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