5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( Hours left until Trump's Iran decision, Powell says the market is right on the Fed, and U.S. and China face off at the WTO. Decision day President Donald Trump is poised to announce his decision on whether the U.S. will [leave the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement]( at 2 p.m. Eastern Time today, with most expecting an exit from what Trump has dubbed the “[worst deal ever](.” While the market is positioned for the headline risk posed by a renunciation of the pact, analysts are warning of “[untold repercussions](” from second- and third-order effects given the deal’s complexity. Following yesterday’s rise to the highest level since 2014, [oil is slipping]( ahead of the announcement, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for June delivery trading at $69.87 by 5:45 a.m. No surprise Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said market projections for the monetary-policy outlook are "[well aligned](” with expectations held at the Fed, in a speech at a conference this morning in Zurich, Switzerland. He also argued the role of U.S. interest rates in driving  [capital flows in and out of emerging markets]( -- and global financial conditions, more generally -- shouldn't be overstated. His comments come as investors become ever-focussed on U.S. bond supply, while the[ incentive]( for holding long-term Treasuries diminishes.  Trade fight The World Trade Organization holds a general council meeting in Geneva, Switzerland today, with the agenda showing there’s likely to be a clash between the delegations of the world’s two largest economic powers. Chinese Ambassador Zhang Xiangchen [will criticize]( the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs, while his U.S. counterpart will find fault with China’s retaliation. The face-off comes only days after talks with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Beijing [ended with little progress](. Data released overnight showed that China’s trade surplus with the U.S. [increased by $22.2 billion in April](, the first increase since November. Markets mixed Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent, while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.4 percent higher, with banks and pharmaceutical firms leading the advance. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2 percent lower at 5:45 a.m. as investors awaited Trump’s Iran decision and worries over a new election in Italy weighed on equities. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [lower open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.952 percent, and gold dropped. European politics Italy’s benchmark FTSE MIB Index is the worst-performing major European equity gauge this morning, dropping as much as 2.3 percent after the leader of the populist Five Star Movement rejected the idea of a non-partisan prime minister. That opens the door to a [new round of elections]( in the coming months. In the U.K., Prime Minister Theresa May is facing more problems, with another defeat likely for her [flagship Brexit legislation]( in the House of Lords. While that could be reversed when the bill returns to the House of Commons, it is not clear that May has sufficient support from her own party’s MPs to overrule the changes. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - New York Attorney General [resigns]( after abuse claims. - Jamie Dimon says prepare for [4 percent yields](, volatility rise. - Musk buys [$9.85 million in Tesla stock]( after taunting shorts. - U.K. house prices [plunge 3.1 percent]( in one month. - Takeda clinches $62 billion deal to [buy drugmaker Shire](. - Ignore the emerging-market selloff; this time (really) [is different](. - [How frightened]( should we be of AI? And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning Somewhat surprisingly perhaps Tesla shares have already erased all the losses they suffered after that [infamous conference call last week](. The bonds, however, are a different story. Debt that matures in 2025 is trading at less than 88 cents on the dollar, close to the lows of the year. What explains the divergence? Some might be tempted to think that the stock represents Elon Musk's retail fanboys, whereas the debt is in the hands of the smarter, more-skeptical institutional money. But this frame isn't totally satisfying. In part, that's because a similar situation is playing out with Netflix, another tech company that has significant credit needs. Netflix shares are near their highs of the year, however, bonds that mature in 2028 are near their lows of the year at below 94 cents on the dollar. Doomsayers of a certain variety typically suggest these situations -- credit saying one thing, stocks saying another -- contain ominous warnings. For now, that's probably a stretch. Still, it's something that I'm keeping my eye on. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? 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