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Forward Guidance
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Huge weekend for deals, not everyone's going to get a Trump tariff extension, and the oil market is worried about Iran.
Online shopping
The perpetual [will-they-won’t-they]( deliberations over a merger between T-Mobile US Inc. and Sprint Corp. finally bore fruit over the weekend when the Deutsche Telekom AG-controlled wireless company agreed to acquire SoftBank Group Corp.’s Sprint for [$26.5 billion in stock](. The deal, which will reduce the number of major competitors in the U.S. from [four to three](, will come under heavy scrutiny from [regulators](. In the U.K., retailer J Sainsbury Plc said it will [buy Walmart Inc.’s Asda unit]( in a 7.3 billion-pound ($10 billion) transaction that would create a supermarket giant to rival current market leader Tesco Plc.Â
Naughty or nice?
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that the U.S. would extend relief from steel and aluminum tariffs [to some, but not all](, of the countries currently granted a reprieve that ends tomorrow. Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz warned in a Bloomberg television interview that a trade war between the U.S. and the European Union over the tariffs would be “[extremely negative](” for both sides. So far, only South Korea has earned a permanent exclusion from the duties after the country reached a deal to revise its bilateral trade with the U.S.
Iran risk
Oil is headed for its [second monthly gain this year]( as concerns over disruption of Iranian supplies and OPEC’s success in clearing a global crude surplus bolster prices. With the deadline for President Donald Trump to decide on whether to extend support for the Iran nuclear deal passing on May 12, some oil traders are [unwilling to sign contracts]( for products from the country that would be valid after that date. French President Emmanuel Macron and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani agreed in a weekend phone call to [work to protect]( the content of the current deal.Â
Markets rise
The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index rose more than 1 percent overnight, with South Korea’s Kospi index closing at a three-month high following Friday’s summit between the leaders of both Koreas. Markets in Japan are closed for a holiday. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.1 percent higher at 5:25 a.m. Eastern Time as merger news helped stocks stay green. S&P 500 futures pointed to [a higher open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.961 percent and gold was lower.
Huge week
It’s a big week for the U.S. economy, with the Federal Reserve [monetary policy decision]( due on Wednesday, and payrolls data for April due Friday. In earnings, all eyes will be [Apple Inc.’s report]( tomorrow. Today, at 8:30 a.m., personal income, spending numbers and the March PCE deflator are released.  In the euro area, first-quarter GDP is due Wednesday, with latest inflation figures published on Thursday.
Here's what you should read today
- Odd Lots: Getting psyched for the [Kentucky Derby](.
- U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May [loses another minister](.Â
- Tesla doesn’t burn fuel, it [burns cash](.
- Not everybody’s [buying the Saudi story](.
- China’s economy gives [little sign of slowdown]( as PMIs hold up.
- [JPMorgan’s guide]( to the end of “easy money.”
- Testing a “[spooky](” quantum paradox.Â
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And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning
Investors are getting more and more interested in the November midterm elections. The problem: it's hard to know how markets would react even if you could predict the outcome. Remember, it was conventional wisdom that Trump would, put simply, be bad for stocks. So rather than trying to make specific trades about what happens if the Democrats win Congress, it's probably better to look at some bigger trends, such as the growing Democratic embrace of bolder economic experiments. For example, you have three huge names in the party (Bernie Sanders, Corey Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand) endorsing the idea that the government [should guarantee everyone a job]( in order to achieve full employment. You also have Senator [Gillibrand](, viewed as a potential presidential candidate in 2020, pushing for "postal banking" that would establish basic financial services at post offices around the country. The trend of Democrats pushing the envelope in terms of acceptable economic-policy proposals is a really interesting trend. And if you're keen on learning more, watch [What'd You Miss?]( this evening, where [we'll be talking to economist Pavlina R. Tcherneva](, a long-time advocate of job guarantees, about how such a project would work.
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