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Forward Guidance
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Trump remains unconvinced on Iran deal, U.S. 10-year yield holds above 3 percent, and it's a huge day for earnings.
Insouciance
French President Emmanuel Macron’s pitch to save the Iran nuclear deal was met with President Donald Trump’s competing [foreign policy instincts]( when the two leaders discussed the issue in Washington yesterday. Macron says he wants to use the current Iran deal as a building block for a new agreement which would contain the country’s involvement in regional conflict; Trump plans to announce by [May 12](whether the U.S. will remain in the current deal at all. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said his country was “ready” to accelerate its nuclear program to "[a much greater speed](" if Trump reimposes sanctions and walks away from the agreement.
Deletions?Ă‚
Facebook Inc. will report first-quarter earnings after the bell today, and while the company’s financial performance will be noted, investors will focus on anything in the release that shows a [drop-off in users]( or advertiser spending following the #DeleteFacebook campaign in the wake of a breach of personal data by a third party. The company has been fighting something of a [rearguard action]( against the outcry over its polices, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg appearing in front of Congress [earlier this month](. For the wider tech market, there are hopes that a strong set of numbers could help reverse the [FANG selloff]( that began with Alphabet Inc.’s results. Twitter Inc. also reports today.
Holding
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains above 3 percent this morning, trading at [3.0165 percent]( by 5:40 a.m. Eastern Time. Analysts are not expecting much more of a move higher from here, with more than half of those surveyed by Bloomberg expecting the yield to [end the year within 25 basis points]( of 3 percent. There will be a test of the bond markets appetite for U.S. debt later today when the Treasury sells $35 billion of five-year notes at 1:00 p.m.
Markets drop
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.5 percent, while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.1 percent lower amid concerns the global growth environment may be deteriorating. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was down 0.9 percent by 5:40 a.m. amid disappointing earnings and drops in commodity-linked shares. S&P 500 futures pointed to [further losses at the open](, and gold was lower.Â
M&A, earnings
Comcast Corp. formalized its 22 billion pound ($30.7 billion) [bid]( for Sky Plc, throwing down the gauntlet to Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox Inc. and Walt Disney Co. as they vie for Britain’s largest pay-TV broadcaster. Takeda Pharmaceutical Co.’s latest 46 billion-pound offer for Shire Plc is large enough for the board of the U.K.-listed pharma company to [recommend it to shareholders](. Shares in Takeda closed 7 percent lower, with investors seemingly unconvinced about the wisdom of the bid. It’s a very busy day in earnings, with eBay Inc., Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Visa Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc., Ford Motor Co. and Boeing Co. among the many companies due to report.Â
Here's what you should read today
- Stock investors hate risks [loved by credit]( in bipolar market.
- [Here come petrodollars](, back to save global asset prices.
- Global markets are [facing milestones]( at every turn.
- The dollar may be down but it’s [far from out](.
- The next logical step for [Europe’s integration](.
- Numbers behind [WeWork](’s growing empire.
- Dark photons probably don't exist, and if they did, they'd be [super weird](.
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And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning
The nice thing about the stock market is that it's honest. With other assets, you have to poke and tease at them to figure out what they're trying to tell you. Are rates up because of inflation fears? Or growth optimism? Maybe the bond market is signalling fears of a policy mistake? Stocks are more straightforward. When things are good, they go up. When things are bad, they go down. Sure, there are times when it's more complicated but this description isn't much of an exaggeration. With that in mind, it's interesting to look at the behavior of equities this year and what they say about about another market discussion: the flattening yield curve. It was [literally a week ago]( that we heard a growing chorus of investors and economists fretting about about the imminent inversion of the yield curve, meaning interest rates at the long end falling below short end rates. Historically, inverted curves have preceded recessions, so naturally this is a source of worry. The chart below, however, shows the popular narrative is a bit more complicated. We've had two spells of noticeable curve steepening this year, as seen in the green rectangles of the bottom line, which measures the 2-10 spread, and during both of those periods stocks were unhappy (see the lines above). If flattening and potential inversion were really the source of anxiety, you would expect investor relief that a theoretical inversion was being delayed, but that hasn't been the case. Of course, this is all a gross oversimplification. There are lots of moving parts to the market. But it's obviously not as simple as: Flattening is worrisome and steepening is a relief. So what should investors be worried about curve-wise? [Here's a great read on that](.
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