5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg Markets]( [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]([Twitter Share]( [SUBSCRIBE [Subscribe]](  Forward Guidance  Inflation bets send bond yields higher, OPEC isn't in the mood to end oil-supply cuts, and Mark Carney sends a dovish signal. 3 percent Inflation worries are stalking global bond markets this week as [commodity prices push higher]( on a combination of U.S. sanctions, trade dust-ups, and continuing tight oil supplies. With the 10-year Treasury yield close to its 2018 high, investors once again have the [3 percent mark]( in focus. The breakeven rate signaled by 10-year inflation-linked Treasuries rose to 2.19 percent yesterday, the highest since 2014. In the market this morning, the 10-year Treasury yield was [relatively unchanged at 2.916 percent](, with the two-year yield at 2.437 percent. Crude thinking Oil ministers from OPEC and Russia meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia are finding new reasons to continue with their production cuts, in spite of their success in wiping out [97 percent of the targeted inventory surplus](. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih pointed to the need to restore investment in oil and gas production, a sentiment echoed by his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak. Analysts now see the nations as being willing to [over-tighten the market](, even as crude reaches three-year highs. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for May delivery was [trading at $68.33]( by 5:40 a.m. Eastern Time, with Brent crude at $73.84. Carney the dove Bank of England Governor Mark Carney [rattled the pound]( after he unexpectedly damped expectations for a May rate rise during an interview with the BBC. He said policy makers would make their decision “conscious that there are other meetings” at which they could act this year. Sterling dropped 0.8 percent after his comments yesterday, and was down a further 0.2 percent this morning to $1.4055 by 5:40 a.m., despite arguments this morning from MPC member Michael Saunders to hike rates [sooner rather than later](. Market odds of a rate increase in May have dropped to below 50 percent, from more than 80 percent earlier in the week. Markets quiet Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.8 percent, while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.1 percent higher as rising yields boosted insurers in the country. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was broadly unchanged amid a mixed bag of earnings, with Ericsson AB the [stand-out performer](. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [slight loss at the open](, and gold was also slipping. Coming up… While there’s very little in the way of economic releases scheduled for today, oil investors will watch the Baker Hughes rig count at 1:00 p.m. to see if higher crude prices help it maintain its recent strong run. It’s the turn of industry heavyweights to release earnings today, with General Electric Co. and Honeywell International Inc. both reporting. The world’s finance ministers and central bankers meet this weekend in Washington at the IMF, with trade tensions likely to dominate discussions. Here's what you should read today - [Robots are coming]( for investors (again). - U.S. weighs [emergency powers]( to curb China investments. - Investors have to [get creative]( with euro-dollar trades. - Deutsche Bank mistakenly makes [$35 billion payment](. - Barclay’s CEO survives [whistle-blowing probe]( with only a fine. - The rich are betting on [living to 100](. - Robots learn how to assemble [IKEA furniture](.  And finally, here’s what Luke’s interested in this morning What’s that weird thing the Treasury curve’s doing? On Thursday, the spread between two-year and 10-year yields widened by the most since February, when U.S. stocks were tumbling amid a massive volatility spike. here’s no clear cause for these steepening USTs. The list of culprits include pent-up selling linked to the rise in commodity prices that started in early April. Remember, rising geopolitical tensions had fueled a flight to safety, even as oil was surging last week. Commodities actually dipped on Thursday, so that narrative doesn’t fit perfectly. Perhaps it was the last refuge of the bewildered financial journalist: good old-fashioned profit taking after a big move. Whatever the case, it’s something different, and U.S. stocks – like Stewie Griffin in Family Guy – don’t like change, or at least this one anyway. The S&P 500 Index took a bath, and the intraday chart supports the notion that higher 10-year yields – threatening to push on to 3 percent – have once again become a problem for the benchmark stock gauge. Looking at the interplay between bonds and stocks, a rapid oscillation can be seen between periods when lower rates feed into recession fears, damp risk appetite and hurt the banks, and ones when 10-year yields are on the verge of breaking into a new range and damaging everything but banks. Times when the porridge seems “just right” are getting ever more elusive.   Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. [Learn more.](   You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Markets newsletter.   [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022