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Forward Guidance
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Stocks start the month on a down note, Trump set to impose steel and aluminum tariffs, and Powell back in Congress.
Further falls
The S&P 500 Index’s dispiriting close to February, after it [slid 2.4 percent]( on Tuesday and Wednesday, continues to set the tone for global markets. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.7 percent, while Japan’s Topix index closed 1.6 percent lower as the strengthening dollar and concerns over the pace of U.S. rate increases hit equities. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 1.0 percent lower at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time with all industry sectors trading in the red. S&P 500 futures were indicating [further losses]( at the open.
Tariffs
President Donald Trump is set to announce [steep tariffs]( on steel and aluminum later today, according to people familiar with the matter. The president has told aides he’s seeking import duties of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum from all countries, which would be even harsher than those [recommended by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross](. With trade in metal cited as a [national security risk](, the president can impose the measures without a vote by Congress. Asian steel stocks declined on the news.
Powell back
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will start his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 a.m. this morning. Following his [market-moving performance]( on Tuesday, investors will keep a close eye on today’s proceedings for any further hints on [rate policy](. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading at 2.841 percent ahead of the meeting.Â
Brexit friction
The U.K. [cannot expect a frictionless trade agreement]( with the European Union once it moves outside the single market, EU President Donald Tusk warned in a speech to business leaders. The intervention comes a day after Brussels produced its template for the U.K.’s [exit from the bloc](, and the day before a key speech from Prime Minister Theresa May on her vision for the post-Brexit relationship. May was quick to reject the EU draft document yesterday, saying she would [never accept]( the proposal, which risked putting a border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.Â
Coming up…
At 8:30 a.m., personal income, spending and the PCE deflator are published, meaning Powell will have that data to hand when he addresses the Senate later. Weekly initial jobless claims are out at the same time. Today is manufacturing PMI day, and following something of a [mixed bag]( from [Europe earlier](, U.S. numbers are due at 9:45 a.m., with construction spending and ISM manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. Also expected are vehicle sales data for February, with total annualized sales projected to be 17.2 million, up slightly from the previous month.Â
Here's what you should read today
- More than 30 Trump aides lose [top secret clearance](.Â
- SEC [issues subpoenas]( in hunt for fraudulent ICOs.
- Sweden says tax hikes are [making Sweden great again](.
- [Era of the holdout]( is raising the cost of sovereign default.
- Debt-conscious millennials are [ditching credit cards](.
- New Fed chief gets same old Republican [pushback on balance sheet](.
- Signal detected from '[cosmic dawn](.'
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And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning
Stocks are [looking wobbly again](, having been hammered in two straight sessions following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress on Tuesday. He's making another appearance today, and of course people will be paying close attention to see if he makes any tweaks in emphasis from earlier in the week. Before his testimony I'd strongly suggest reading two blog posts from [Tim Duy](, a Fed watcher at the University of Oregon, and a [frequent]( Bloomberg contributor. [The first one was written right after the Tuesday testimony](, which Duy characterized as "hawkish" because Powell was much more explicit than Yellen about his desire to avoid an "overheated economy." [The second post]( says that a broader shift may be afoot, and that after years of Fed gradualism on hiking rates, we might be on the cusp of a fundamentally different approach. We've all become so used to the gradual stance, the idea of the Fed doing something different feels almost unimaginable. And maybe a real shift is unlikely, but since the ramifications are potentially big, it's worth watching closely for clues and Tim, one of the savviest Fed watchers out there, is seeing some.
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