5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg Markets]( [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]([Twitter Share]( [SUBSCRIBE [Subscribe]](  Forward Guidance  Traders brace for U.S. inflation data, commodities tumble, and the tax debate ropes in health care politics. Price print U.S. consumer price figures and retail data will provide more clues on the strength of the world’s biggest economy. The inflation reading released at 8:30 a.m Eastern Time is [forecast to show]( headline prices moderated to an annual rate of 2 percent, while the core measure is expected to hold steady at 1.7 percent year-on-year for the sixth month in a row. Traders don’t think an [inflation](surprise will imperil the hottest trade in the Treasury market this year: the narrowing gap between short- and long-dated yields. Buoyant financial conditions and a firming labor market have investors anticipating the U.S. central bank will hike rates next month despite price growth [undershooting]( its target. Fiscal game-changer House leaders [cleared the way]( for a Thursday vote on their tax-overhaul bill as Senate writers released a late-night draft that would make many individual breaks temporary – and, in a surprise move, repeal a key part of the Obamacare law. The latter would help GOP officials meet fiscal targets, but further complicate vote calculations in both chambers. “It brings the politics of health care into tax reform,” warned Republican Representative Tom MacArthur of New Jersey. Commodities slump [Commodities tumbled]( after industry data showed U.S. stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude trading at around $55. Adding to the pain was a [report]( that Russia thinks it's too early to announce an agreement to extend output cuts. Raw materials were under fire earlier this week after the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for demand, while the slowdown in Chinese [industrial production]( and [lending data]( has sparked fears of weakening demand in the world’s second-largest economy. Markets slide The risk-off mood that’s gripped global markets this week continues, with mining and oil-related stocks the biggest losers. The MSCI All-Country World Index declined 0.2 percent, reaching the lowest in almost three weeks on its fifth consecutive tumble, while Japan’s Topix index closed lower for a fifth day. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 1 percent lower at 6:00 a.m. S&P 500 futures signal more losses at the open, while the dollar slid. Airbus deal Airbus SE announced the [biggest commercial-plane deal]( in its history, securing an order valued at nearly $50 billion for 430 planes. The pact with U.S. investor Indigo Partners gives Airbus the upper hand at the Dubai Air Show, where it has been trailing Boeing Co. in orders. Here's what you should read today - Should Sweden’s central bank intervene in the [housing market](? - Zimbabwe’s military [seizes power](, threatening Mugabe’s rule. - Goldman just can’t stop raising its target on this [liquor](. - Venezuela’s default [changes nothing]( for bondholders. - There’s [more farmland]( in the world than was previously thought. - A tiny island prepares the world for a [climate refugee crisis](. - Two billionaires bet they can sell [sports swag]( to the world. Sponsored Content by Charles Schwab Investors trust independent advisors with over $4 trillion of their money. That’s some serious trust. Charles Schwab is proud to support more independent financial advisors and their clients than anyone else. Learn more about the independent difference at [Findyourindependentadvisor.com](   And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning Gold's interesting. It's not as exciting as it used to be. [Sales of gold coins]( are around their lowest level in a decade. All the kids reportedly [want to buy cryptocurrencies instead,]( leaving gold vendors in the lurch. But here's something weird: It's not clear that any of this actually matters to the price of gold itself. Bullion, of course, is difficult to "value," but one crude approach is to look at real interest rates. [Eddy Elfenbein over at Crossing Wall Street]( wrote a brilliant blog post years ago on the connection, but the basic gist is that when real rates fall gold goes up, while the inverse is true. There's something intuitive about this, of course. Gold has no interest rate, and arguably has a negative interest rate (due to storage costs), so naturally it gets more appealing the lower the yield on the real alternative, such as risk-free rates. Below is a chart, and I know it's kind of noisy, but it shows what's going on. The vertical bars are coin sales from the U.S. Mint, which are around their lowest level since the crisis. The yellow line is bullion. The dark blue line is U.S. five-year TIPS to establish real rates. While gold may not be cool like it used to be in 2010 or 2011, there hasn't been a structural shift in market dynamics to dampen its appeal as an investment.   Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. [Learn more.](   You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Markets newsletter.   [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022