Trump shooting changes everything

Attempted assassination of Trump upends an already volatile campaign [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power. Readers of the Washington Edition newsletter are also receiving this special edition. To get Balance of Power going forward, [sign up here](. The image of a bloodied and defiant Donald Trump pumping his fist at a crowd in Pennsylvania —  his lips appearing to form the word “fight” against the backdrop of an American flag under a blaring sun — will instantly enter the history books as one of those [era-defining moments](. The assassination attempt on the former US president at a rally yesterday upends an already volatile and unpredictable campaign, punctured by charged rhetoric and radicalized views. It also appears to irrevocably alter the political landscape in Trump’s favor ahead of November elections. Not only did he survive the shot that grazed his ear — and is now recovering in his New Jersey golf course — but the narrative he has shaped over the years about how everyone was out to get him suddenly appeared validated when minutes into his stump speech [a shooter opened fire]( on the 78-year-old Republican presidential candidate. WATCH: Trump is seen grabbing at his ear after a loud popping noise was heard at the rally. For his legions of MAGA devotees, this makes him even more of a martyr to the cause, Trump as the ultimate survivor. One of his GOP acolytes called him unstoppable. His campaign quickly sent out a fundraising text message quoting Trump saying: “I will Never Surrender!” The Democrats, meanwhile, are in disarray as President Joe Biden, 81, stubbornly clings on even as doubts [about his age and mental acuity]( have dogged him for weeks, with calls for him to step aside steadily growing. He’s now been knocked off the front pages — but if anything he’s even less in control of events. And that is deeply worrying for Western democracies looking to the leader of the free world for a semblance of order and clarity. WATCH: “We cannot be like this, we cannot condone this,” Biden says during an address to the nation. Instead, the rest of the world is also experiencing the polarization of politics and what can happen in a deeply divided society when the political discourse is riddled with exaggerations and lies that are then amplified via social media. From Asia to Europe and South America, the past few years have seen assassination attempts against a range of top political leaders in broad daylight. In May, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico — a populist leader in the style of Trump — was shot four times at close range by a lone wolf. He survived and promptly seized upon the assassination attempt to ramp up his attacks on the media, prosecutors and the opposition. If anything, it’s become about retribution against his enemies. And as for all this could play out in the US, one has to only look back to 2018 for an eerie precedent with Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, a political figure who is almost a cookie-cutter Latin American version of Trump. The far-right leader was stabbed in the stomach at a campaign rally a month before elections. It was a defining moment that fired up his base and propelled him to power. In a [post]( on X, Bolsonaro — a staunch Trump supporter — told him “see you on inauguration day.” — [Flavia Krause-Jackson]( Trump gestures to the crowd as he is ushered offstage. Photographer: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images  The Highlights The seconds following the attempt on Trump’s life were marked with more confusion and bewilderment than chaos, [Bloomberg’s Hadriana Lowenkron describes](. She found herself among a sea of MAGA supporters at the rally in Butler, Pennsylvania — one of the six critical swings states in the election. People were incredulous, others froze. By the time people realized what had happened, Trump had been whisked off stage. Who was the attempted killer? The FBI identified the male suspect as Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, about an hour’s drive from the scene of the crime. He was killed on site after firing from an [“elevated position”]( at the outdoor rally. The incident is being treated as an assassination attempt, and a motive has yet to be determined. The New York Times pointed to him having been a [registered Republican]( and not having a prior criminal record. Federal campaign-finance records also show he donated $15 to the Progressive Turnout Project, which aims to mobilize Democratic voters, in January 2021. From Abraham Lincoln to John F. Kennedy, the assassination of a sitting US president [has shaped US history](. Trump was not in power, nor was he greatly injured. Nevertheless, you’d have to go back four decades to find something comparable. That would have been when John Hinckley, fixated with Jodie Foster after seeing her in Taxi Driver, shot Ronald Reagan in his first term outside the Hilton Hotel in Washington. President John F. Kennedy is struck by an assassin's bullet as he travels through Dallas in a motorcade on Nov. 22, 1963.  Photographer: Three Lions/Hulton Archive/Getty Images World leaders responded with shock, widely condemning political violence and wishing Trump a speedy recovery. The billionaire mogul may be a divisive figure, but the leaders in the Group of Seven — who would prefer him not restored to the Oval Office — were [unequivocal in expressing their dismay]( on what it means and where it could lead. Germany’s Olaf Scholz called the attack “despicable,” and France’s Emmanuel Macron described it as “a tragedy for democracies.” This is the first assassination attempt on a US presidential candidate unfolding in real time under the glare of social media. And seconds after Trump was escorted offstage, posts and clips went into overdrive — and [so did disinformation]( with several unfounded claims about the event swirling on Elon Musk’s X, along with Telegram and Gab. The Republican National Convention looms and that was going to be Trump’s coronation as the formal Republican nominee. One can only imagine what the atmosphere at the convention starting tomorrow will be given the cult of personality around the former president. [He plans to attend](, a day after the attempted shooting. Expect tight security to be even tighter, and the atmosphere febrile. Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, [posted a message]( on X that said: “I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery.” Musk donated to a super political action committee working to elect Trump to the White House, sources say. While it’s unclear how much he has given, they characterized the figure as a sizable amount. Investors will initially favor traditional haven assets and perhaps lean into trades most linked to Trump’s chances of winning with Democrats agonizing over Biden’s viability to stay in the race. There is [little precedent]( for events like those in Pennsylvania. When Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market dipped before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose over 1%. And finally There has been a raft of [violence against political leaders]( around the world in recent years, most tragically with the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in July 2022. Even though Japan has strict gun control laws, a gunmen used a home-made weapon to shoot Abe twice at a campaign event, targeting the high-profile Japanese leader due to his links to a church that the suspect said bankrupted his family by asking for excessive donations. Just a few months later, in Pakistan, Imran Khan was shot in the leg at a public event. The cricket star and former prime minister continues to be a divisive figure in the Muslim majority country. In January of this year, South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung was stabbed in the neck while speaking to reporters at a public appearance. He is considered a leading candidate ahead of the next presidential vote in 2027. And then, most recently, Slovakia’s Fico [was critically injured]( while mingling with a crowd in a town square. Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reports on the shooting of on July 8, 2022. Photographer: Akio Kon/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. 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