The struggle for Moldova

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.For one of Europe’s poorest states [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. For one of Europe’s poorest states, Moldova is [getting a lot of attention]( lately. At the end of May, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stopped off in the capital, Chisinau, to offer US support to help fight Russian interference. Then in June, Group of Seven summit called on Moscow to abandon its efforts [to stoke social tensions]( in the former Soviet republic, using “disinformation and propaganda” to further its aims. Situated between Ukraine and European Union and NATO member Romania, Moldova under President Maia Sandu is pursuing a pro-Western course that would take it permanently out of Russia’s orbit. That puts it at the heart of a geopolitical struggle between Washington and Brussels on one side, and Moscow on the other. It’s a tussle that will reach a tipping point in October, when presidential elections are held determining whether Sandu stays in office, alongside a referendum on [constitutional changes needed for EU accession](. Moldova’s government and its Western partners say the twin votes are the focus of Russian efforts to sway the outcome. Some willing domestic players are open to such outside influence. The breakaway region of Transnistria is one, although the central government in Chisinau is less concerned about it meddling in the elections due to burgeoning business ties with the EU. The autonomous region of Gagauzia is emerging as another thorn in Sandu’s side. Its leader, Evghenia Gutul, is a regular visitor to Moscow, and has met with President Vladimir Putin. Last week, the US imposed Russia-related sanctions on her. Moldova knows its fate depends overwhelmingly on the outcome of Russia’s war on neighboring Ukraine. It has an opportunity to send an unmistakable signal about its chosen political future on Oct. 20. As the broader contest with Russia intensifies, Moldova may offer the West a potentially important win. — [Alan Crawford]( A public art installation showing the EU flag in Chisinau on June 10.  Photographer: Andrei Pungovschi/Bloomberg Global Must Reads France’s political turmoil has provoked concern in some EU capitals that initiatives such as joint military spending and a fresh push to support Ukraine could be threatened. There’s also a fear the snap legislative elections President Emmanuel Macron called this month will undermine his role as [one of Kyiv’s top cheerleaders](, including his plan to dispatch army trainers to Ukraine. A new Donald Trump administration should sever all economic ties with China, consider deploying the entire US Marine Corps to Asia and [resume live nuclear-weapons testing,]( his former national security adviser wrote in an article set to appear in Foreign Affairs magazine. Robert O’Brien offers the most detailed account of what foreign policy may look like in a second Trump term should he win the November election. The perilous state of the National Health Service is a top issue for many UK voters ahead of the July 4 elections. While both the ruling Conservatives and the poll-leading Labour Party have made proposals to fix the creaking service, neither has [put forward a radical rethink]( of the NHS’s strained finances. Former Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra was formally charged in a royal insult case, while a top court ordered his ally and Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin to submit more evidence in a case seeking his ouster. The two high-profile legal actions [threaten to plunge]( the Southeast Asian nation into political turmoil. A tussle over cabinet positions is up next in South Africa after political parties agreed to form a coalition government. While five groups have signed up to the alliance, the main bargaining over the portfolios will be between President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress and the pro-business Democratic Alliance, and the choices may reveal the [strength of their commitment to accelerate]( economic reforms. South Korean soldiers fired warning shots at what appeared to be dozens of North Korean troops [who briefly crossed the border]( dividing the peninsula, in the second such incident in less than two weeks. Brazilian oil giant Petrobras agreed to pay 19.8 billion reais ($3.5 billion) in back taxes to the federal government at a time when President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is [seeking increased revenue]( to help balance the budget. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Malaysia will join BRICS, becoming the latest country to take part in the expanding economic bloc seen as [challenging the Western-led global order](. Washington Dispatch As the US prepares to celebrate Juneteenth, which commemorates the end of American slavery, Governor Wes Moore of Maryland pardoned [more than 175,000 marijuana convictions]( in a state that legalized possession and use of small amounts last year. Black people are 3.6 times more likely than Whites to be arrested for marijuana possession despite similar usage rates, according to data from the American Civil Liberties Union. “No Marylander should face barriers to housing, employment, or education based on convictions for conduct that is no longer illegal,” the governor said in a statement yesterday.  Moore, a Democrat elected in 2022 after a career that included investment banking and Army service in Afghanistan, has been mentioned as a [potential presidential candidate]( in a future election. One thing to watch today: US retail sales likely rebounded modestly in May as businesses slashed prices to attract customers around Memorial Day weekend, Commerce Department data are expected to show. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day After Putin’s troops surged over the Ukrainian border in February 2022, Coca-Cola was among the first multinationals to pledge it would quit Russia in protest. Two years later, Coke’s distinctive red logo is still easy to find in supermarkets and restaurants, a sign of how even companies that have tried to leave [are having trouble cutting ties](. And Finally Over the past decade, the nickel industry has helped deliver rapid growth for Indonesia’s economy, the largest in Southeast Asia. Sulawesi and other islands have been transformed into hubs for mining and processing the metal that’s vital for making stainless steel and electric cars. Yet a [fire in December](, the worst in a series of accidents at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park and other sites, shows the dark side of the operations. 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