Modi on the ropes

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.On Saturday night, it looked like [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. On Saturday night, it looked like the marathon six-week Indian election would be wrapped up in about 20 minutes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi all but declared victory after exit polls showed his ruling party [would cruise to an easy win](. Fast forward to today, when real votes are counted, and [suddenly it’s all going wrong]( for Modi. Although ballots are still being tallied, his Bharatiya Janata Party — while still winning the most seats — looks all but certain to lose the single-party majority in parliament that it has enjoyed since he first became prime minister in 2014. That is a perilous position for Modi. Two of the allies in his National Democratic Alliance are known for switching sides if they get better offers. Depending on the final vote count, there’s a chance they could be enticed to join the opposition I.N.D.I.A. coalition, a collection of regional and caste-based parties that unified in a bid to take him down. WATCH: How India’s Narendra Modi Took Power from Bloomberg Originals. For the 73-year-old premier, it’s hard not to take the result personally. The BJP’s campaign was all about him, with his face plastered on billboards around the country and the party’s manifesto titled “Modi’s Guarantee.” Investors [instantly feared]( the setback would dent India’s growth prospects: The NSE Nifty 50 Index tumbled as much as 8.5% in Mumbai, the biggest intra-day drop in more than four years. When the dust settles, India is unlikely to see a drastic shift in its long-term economic growth prospects. Some of the states that are attracting the likes of Apple and other tech giants are ruled by parties opposed to Modi. And foreign policy will likely stay roughly the same no matter who takes office, with India more closely aligned with the US against China while seeking to carve out a leadership role in the Global South. If Modi’s fate remains uncertain, one thing is clear: The world’s biggest democracy looks alive and well.— [Daniel Ten Kate]( Live results at the Indian National Congress headquarters in New Delhi today. Photographer: Prakash Singh/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel is ready to pause fighting with Hamas to win the return of hostages but won’t agree [to a permanent cease-fire]( until conditions including the destruction of the militant group are met. His comments yesterday to a parliamentary committee raise further questions about the three-phase peace plan laid out by US President Joe Biden. Donald Tusk is putting security front and center ahead of Sunday’s European Parliament elections, in an attempt by the Polish premier to [reinforce his grip]( on the country at a critical moment. Russia’s war on Ukraine is sparking fears from the Baltic states down to Moldova that the Kremlin will try to exploit Europe’s vulnerability. Brexit architect Nigel Farage picked the perfect moment [to deal a crushing blow]( to Rishi Sunak — the day before the first TV debate of the UK election campaign and just as a major poll suggested the prime minister’s Conservatives are on track for a historic rout. Farage announced at a news conference in London yesterday that he will stand as a candidate for his Reform UK party, potentially splitting the right-wing vote in the July 4 ballot. After former US President Donald Trump’s felony conviction last week, commentators in China and Russia [quickly highlighted the failure]( of American democracy. Chinese social media users reacted with bemusement, urging Trump supporters to again storm the US Capitol and warning of a civil war. Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said “the entire world” could see the former president was being persecuted “by all possible lawful and unlawful means.” Claudia Sheinbaum had mere hours to enjoy the victory that will make her Mexico’s first female president before she was reminded how difficult the job will be. A congratulatory call from Biden yesterday came amid reports that he would sign an executive order limiting asylum claims at the country’s southern border in the [most drastic immigration crackdown]( of his time in the White House. China is taking its domestic economic problems and exporting them to the rest of the world, US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said in an interview with Bloomberg TV, arguing that this strengthens the resolve of America and its partners [to stand together](. Vice President Kamala Harris will represent the US at the Ukraine summit in Switzerland this month, confirming Biden’s plan [to skip the gathering]( and attend a major fundraising event in Los Angeles instead. Sudan’s deputy leader traveled to Russia for talks, days after the North African nation’s army said it may get weapons in exchange for letting Moscow [establish a military fueling station]( on the Red Sea coast. Washington Dispatch The decision by Senator Bob Menendez [to run for reelection]( in New Jersey as an independent threatens to further complicate Democratic strategies to protect the party’s narrow majority in the Senate. Menendez yesterday filed paperwork to become a candidate while [standing trial in New York]( on corruption charges. That case, in which he’s accused of accepting gold bars, cash and a Mercedes Benz in exchange for helping three businessmen, prompted him to bow out of the Democratic primary, which will be held today. The senator, who has [pleaded not guilty](, could force the Democrats to spend more money in a party stronghold at a time when they face significant Republican challenges in other states. Senator Gary Peters, who’s running the Senate Democrats’ campaign operation, dismissed the notion that Menendez’s decision could hurt the party’s candidate. But his Republican counterpart, Senator Steve Daines, smiled and quipped: “Keep your eye on New Jersey.” One person to watch today: Biden will sign an executive order that allows him [to halt]( some asylum claims at the US-Mexico border. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Source: Xeneta The world’s supply lines are more impacted than thought by the ripple effects coming from congestion in the Red Sea triggered by Houthi militant attacks, [according to A.P. Moller-Maersk](. The Copenhagen-based container carrier, a bellwether for global trade, raised its profit outlook yesterday as the disruptions effectively remove capacity from the global fleet and boost freight rates. And Finally Greenhouse gases made the recent deadly flooding in Brazil [twice as likely]( as it would have been in the pre-industrial era, according to the World Weather Attribution, an international research initiative. Factors besides climate change — such as poor flood-control infrastructure and deforestation — played a role in making the floods more destructive. But it was the interplay between climate change and El Niño, the occasional warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific, that had the most dramatic impact. Homes destroyed by floods in Roca Sales on May 5. 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