5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Good morning. Gold and copper hit record highs, one of Wall Street’s most prominent bears turns positive on stocks, and investors have yet m [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. Gold and copper hit record highs, one of Wall Street’s most prominent bears turns positive on stocks, and investors have yet more inflation data to contend with. Here’s what traders are talking about. — [David Goodman]( Want to receive this newsletter in Spanish? [Sign up to get the Five Things: Spanish Edition newsletter](. Metal mania Two of the world’s most-traded metals rose to record highs on Monday as commodity markets took center stage. Copper surged to its highest-ever level, surging past $11,000 a ton and extending a months-long rally driven by investors who’ve piled into the market in anticipation of deepening supply shortages. [Gold also hit a record](, as the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter raised concerns of fresh tensions in the Middle East, offering the haven metal a boost. Solid stocks The gains in metals spurred advances for miners in Europe on Monday, giving more support to the recent surge in equities. The FTSE 100 [climbed toward yet another record](, while US futures [pointed to more gains](after the Dow Jones Industrial Average of blue chips closed above 40,000 for the first time on Friday. The dollar and Treasuries were little changed. Bear capitulates In the face of the rally, one of Wall Street’s [most prominent bears has just turned positive]( on the outlook for US stocks. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson now sees the S&P 500 rising 2% by June 2025, a major about turn from his view that the benchmark will tumble 15% by December. In recent months, Wilson repeatedly stuck to his bearish view, even as the index notched a series of record highs. He said just last month he was steering clear of making big calls on the direction of the index, given heightened economic uncertainty. Inflation risk One thing that could turn the tide for the growing rally in both stocks and bonds is lingering high inflation. That’s increasing the focus on data from major economies, with the [UK the latest to report figures later this week](. The release is expected to show the index slowed to within a whisker of the Bank of England’s 2% target, potential paving the way for a rate cut next month, but an upside shock could disrupt that view, and also the wider narrative surrounding the case for global rate cuts. Trading shift When US markets reopen next Tuesday after the long weekend, the time allowed to complete every transaction will halve to a single day — a switch to what’s known as T+1. Spurred on by the original meme-stock frenzy, the Securities and Exchange Commission is pushing the shift to reduce the chance of something going wrong between when a trade is executed and when it’s settled, but that comes with risks of its own. A spike in the number of failed trades, operational glitches and additional costs [are among industry fears](. What we’ve been reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - Iran [President’s death]( leaves supreme leader [succession in focus](. - China’s housing rescue [too small to end crisis](, analysts say. - South Africa’s top court blocks ex-President Zuma [from contesting vote.]( - Elliott said to build [$1 billion-plus stake]( in Johnson Controls. - [London stays top pick](in Europe for financial investors, EY says. And finally, here's what Nour’s interested in this morning Developments involving some of the world’s largest oil-producing nations, from Saudi Arabia and Iran to Russia, have not materially impacted production or the supply of oil, and therefore prices too. Rather, pricing has been driven by bearish forces and an outlook for weaker demand growth, according to the IEA. That’s keeping a lid on prices near $84 a barrel, within a range that crude hasn’t been able to sustainably break out of since November. Then there’s the question of Chinese demand. Many refiners there are undergoing seasonal maintenance, typically leading to lower demand for crude. Yet China tends to be an enthusiastic buyer of cheaper barrels. OPEC’s ample spare capacity could be another factor keeping oil prices contained. It’s the extra production ability that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, acting as a buffer to stabilize markets. It currently sits just above the five-year average. OPEC and its allies are withholding about 2 million barrels a day in an effort to prevent a surplus and support prices. The group is expected to extend these cuts into the second half of the year when it meets June 1. Nour Al Ali writes for Bloomberg’s Markets Live blog. Follow her on X [@NoorAlAli]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. [Bloomberg Markets Wrap: The latest on what's moving global markets. Tap to read.]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](