Transition in the Middle East

Iranian president's highlights tradition in Middle East [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Over the past day, the issue of who will eventually take over two Middle East heavyweights — and what that means for the region’s geopolitics — has come to the fore. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a [helicopter crash yesterday]( has put in focus who might succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ultimate say over the Islamic Republic’s foreign and military strategy, including toward arch-enemy Israel and the US. Raisi, 63, was widely seen as a main candidate to replace Khamenei, who’s 84 and has suffered health problems in recent years. Ostensibly, little should change in the short term. Khamenei has signaled policy continuity and, while presidential elections are set to be held within 50 days, he and the clerical establishment will probably keep out moderate candidates. That means there’s a good chance Raisi, an ultraconservative cleric, is succeeded by someone of a similar ilk, despite plenty of [signs of public disenchantment](. WATCH: A video released by state media showed rescue teams searching for Raisi’s helicopter. Source: IRINN via APTN His demise comes at a delicate moment in the Middle East, with Israel’s devastating war against Hamas in the Gaza strip deepening its international isolation and [internal divisions in its own government](. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to end the conflict and accept the notion of a future Palestinian state is undermining US President Joe Biden’s drive for a normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In Saudi Arabia, there are questions over its leadership too. Riyadh announced yesterday that King Salman bin Abdulaziz, 88, is [being treated for fever and joint pain](. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, his son and heir, canceled a four-day trip to Japan. Prince Mohammed, known as MBS, has been the de facto ruler of the world’s biggest crude-oil exporter for several years. In neither country is policy expected to see radical change, but the shift in the personalities of the top leadership is bound to have repercussions.— [Paul Wallace]( Iranians pray for Raisi and his delegation yesterday in Tehran. Photographer: Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu/Getty Images Global Must Reads Investigators convene at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna today to assess how organized-crime networks are still able to buy and [sell fissile material]( that’s slipped outside of regulatory controls. One example came to light when US prosecutors charged a Japanese mobster this year with conspiring to traffic nuclear-weapons material to an Iranian general.  New President Lai Ching-te urged China to stop its intimidation of Taiwan, while acknowledging Beijing was unlikely to give up its attempt to annex the island. The comments at his inaugural address were seen as [trying to calm a dispute]( at the heart of a geopolitical rivalry involving the world’s two biggest powers. Lai and his wife Wu Mei-Ju, left, with Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim during his inauguration ceremony in Taipei. Photographer: An Rong Xu/Bloomberg Police in Slovakia are investigating the possible involvement of more people in the [assassination attempt]( on Prime Minister Robert Fico. Rather than just a “lone-wolf” shooter, authorities said yesterday that cooperation with domestic and foreign intelligence services had led to a broadening of the probe, to include a version in which an unidentified group may have been linked to the crime. Voters in India’s financial capital Mumbai — home to billionaires, film stars and millions of slum dwellers — went to the polls today, with the opposition alliance [making a renewed push]( to break Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hold on power following the release on bail of popular leader Arvind Kejriwal from jail. Nationwide polls began on April 19 and will run until June 1. Argentine President Javier Milei’s comments at a far-right rally in Madrid prompted Spain’s socialist government to [demand an apology]( and recall its ambassador from Buenos Aires. The libertarian leader accused the Spanish prime minister’s wife of corruption and decried socialism as “cursed and carcinogenic.” South Africa’s Constitutional Court ruled that former President Jacob Zuma [can’t run as a candidate]( for parliament in the May 29 elections, raising the risk that his supporters will foment unrest before the vote. Dominican Republic’s pro-business President, Luis Abinader, cruised toward a[landslide first round]( win in yesterday’s election as voters rewarded him for one of the strongest economies in the Americas. Democratic Republic of Congo’s army said it killed the leader of [an attempted coup]( and arrested several others hours after gunfire erupted yesterday in the capital of the mineral-rich central African nation. Former ambassador and Munich Security Conference Chair Wolfgang Ischinger says Europe needs to unite around its defense, and that means a new European project is needed. Source: Bloomberg Washington Dispatch While voters continue to tell pollsters that their chief concerns are the economy and inflation, foreign-policy issues have arisen again and again across the presidential election season. Biden yesterday came face-to-face with some of the campus unrest set off by the Israel-Hamas war when [he delivered]( the commencement address at Morehouse College in Atlanta. Several students along with at least two faculty members protested silently during his speech. “What’s happening in Gaza and Israel is heart-breaking,” the president said, and again called for a cease-fire in the devastating war that began with an assault on Israel by Hamas on Oct. 7. The US’s focus yesterday was also on elsewhere the Middle East — as the Morehouse graduation ceremony was underway, reports surfaced of Raisi’s helicopter crash. One thing to watch today: The cross-examination of Michael Cohen, a [key witness]( against Donald Trump at his criminal trial in Manhattan, is expected to conclude. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Beijing hinted it may retaliate against the European Union in a trade dispute that [shows signs of escalating]( the same way as China’s contest with the US. If the EU keeps pursuing investigations into Chinese firms then China will “very likely have to take a series of measures to hit back,” said a post on Yuyuan Tantian, which is linked to state media. And Finally The largest geomagnetic storm since 2003 that occurred on May 10 could be just the beginning of a period of solar activity more intense than expected. Explosions of energy came in the days following the giant storm that delivered a brilliant display of light, known as the aurora (borealis in the Northern Hemisphere, australis in the Southern). The storms are also continuing to cause [widespread radio blackouts and distortions]( to normal energy patterns across the Americas. Northern lights in the Inner Mongolia region of China on May 11. Photographer: VCG/Getty Images Thanks to the 35 people who answered the Friday quiz and congratulations to Stuart Golvin, who was the first to name Antwerp as the European port that criminal gangs have turned into a key entry point of what’s become a cocaine superhighway. 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