Unassailable at home, defiant abroad

The challenge facing the West during Vladimir Putin’s latest six-year term is to call his bluff on the battlefield and crank up domestic pressure in Russia for a change of course. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Things are going pretty well for Vladimir Putin, [sworn in today]( for another six years as Russia’s president. Many Russians [have gotten used to being at war]( in Ukraine and are even rallying behind Putin’s claim that his unprovoked invasion is really a patriotic battle against the US and Europe. Expectations in the West that unprecedented sanctions would force Russia’s economy to collapse and eventually ignite a rebellion against Putin [have proven unfounded](. His grip on power is as tight as ever, aided by old-fashioned intimidation as the harshest Kremlin crackdown in decades crushes any remnants of opposition protest against Putin and the war. Fear is working well for Putin abroad, too, as he resorts to nuclear blackmail again to deter support for Ukraine. He [ordered combat drills yesterday]( involving tactical nuclear weapons after French President Emmanuel Macron mused about sending troops to Ukraine and the UK declared that Kyiv is free to target Russia with British-supplied weapons. Putin’s spokesman accused them of causing an “unprecedented spike in tensions.” That all occurred as Macron was hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping, who’s made clear in the past that use of nuclear weapons is a red line for Beijing. With Russia dependent on China’s support to ease sanctions pressure, Putin knows he can’t afford to antagonize Xi. Still, his threats of nuclear escalation help sow division among Ukraine’s allies about supplying weapons Kyiv says it needs to repel Russia’s invasion. Putin exploits that uncertainty to wage relentless attacks on Ukraine’s cities. Surrounded by imperial splendor at his inauguration, Putin appears unassailable at home and defiant abroad — he’s already the longest-serving Kremlin leader since Josef Stalin. The challenge facing the West in Putin’s new term is to call his bluff on the battlefield and crank up the domestic pressure for a change of course in Russia.—[ Anthony Halpin]( Putin addresses a rally in Moscow in September 2022. Photographer: Alexander Nemenov/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads Israeli troops took control of the Rafah border-crossing area in Gaza today, the first time the army [has moved into the area]( since the war with Hamas began in October. Cease-fire talks between the two sides [continue to drag](. Hamas said yesterday it had accepted a proposal from mediators Egypt and Qatar, while Israel rejected it, saying it contained demands the Jewish state cannot accept. Xi published an article in a Serbian newspaper marking the 25th anniversary of NATO’s bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, [vowing to “never forget”]( the deadly incident that came at the end of the Yugoslav war. Xi’s message — and his visit later today to Serbia, an ally of both China and Russia — highlights a central aim of his swing through Europe: to sow division and prise European governments away from the US. Australia expressed outrage after a Chinese fighter jet fired flares near one of its military helicopters, an act that [risks souring improving ties]( between the governments in Canberra and Beijing. Separately, sources said British armed forces personnel had personal data accessed in a recent hack that was [likely carried out by China](, amid concerns across Europe about increasing espionage activity by the Asian nation. India is trying to clamp down on fake news spreading on social media as campaigning in the world’s biggest election becomes increasingly acrimonious. The social media head of the opposition Indian National Congress was arrested on May 3 over accusations he [may have doctored a video]( of Home Minister Amit Shah, a top ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party faces allegations that an animated video shared on X is discriminatory against Muslims. Claudia Sheinbaum, the presidential candidate for Mexico’s ruling Morena party, holds a [30-point lead]( over opposition hopeful Xóchitl Gálvez in the Bloomberg Poll Tracker less than a month before the election. It’s an alarming sign for Gálvez, who has failed to make any inroads after two presidential debates and months of touring. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the next UK election may be closer than suggested by polls showing his Conservative Party [trailing the Labour opposition]( by 20 points, raising the prospect of a hung Parliament where no party has overall control. US Senator Elizabeth Warren urged the Department of Defense to rein in the use of Starlink in Russia and other unauthorized regions, saying the SpaceX-owned satellite business poses a “[serious national security threat](” to the US and its allies. A US soldier was detained in eastern Russia on “charges of criminal misconduct,” the US Army said yesterday, a [potential new flashpoint]( in relations between the nations already at a low over the Kremlin’s attack on Ukraine. Washington Dispatch House Speaker Mike Johnson plans to meet again today with discontented fellow Republicans who have been [threatening to force a vote]( for his ouster. That risk diminished significantly last week after Democrats pledged to support the embattled speaker. But Johnson seems to be trying to head off a vote altogether after a session so far punctuated by party acrimony. He infuriated Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and other Republican rebels by making deals with Democrats that [averted a government shutdown]( and [provided military assistance to Ukraine](. He pointed out that his party’s narrow majority in the chamber limits his ability to enact legislation sought by conservatives, though he acknowledged their frustration. “We’re going to keep this team together and work for the American people,” Johnson told reporters at the Capitol after taking part in a “constructive” meeting with Greene and Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky. As if to underscore the tenuousness of the Republican hold on the chamber, Johnson later swore in a new member, Representative Tim Kennedy of New York — a Democrat. One person to watch today: President Joe Biden [plans to denounce antisemitism and other hate speech]( at college campus protests during an annual Holocaust commemoration, directly taking on demonstrations that threaten his political coalition. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day South Africa’s youth, a key voting constituency in this month’s elections, is [less optimistic about the future]( of the country than contemporaries in 15 other African nations, a survey suggests. Just 16% of more than 1,000 South African 18-to 24-year-olds canvassed in February said they felt optimistic or excited about their future, while the rest expressed concern about corruption, unemployment and undocumented immigration, according to the survey released by the Ichikowitz Family Foundation. And Finally Multiple checks carrying Donald Trump’s distinctive signature were displayed on screens for a New York jury yesterday. The payments were made out to Trump’s onetime lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen, in 2017. The former US president maintains that the money was for monthly legal services. Manhattan’s district attorney says the true purpose was reimbursement to Cohen for a $130,000 hush agreement the lawyer made to [adult-film star Stormy Daniels](, to keep her quiet about an alleged affair before the 2016 election. Trump and his attorney at Manhattan criminal court last Thursday. 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