Hurdles to a Saudi-US defense pact

A possible Middle East defense pact carries risks and rewards [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. A historic defense pact that could [reshape the Middle East]( is nearing completion, sources say, almost seven months after it was knocked off course by Hamas’s unprecedented attack on Israel. The deal, pursued by the US and Saudi Arabia, faces major obstacles. To secure the 67 votes in the US Senate to become a binding treaty, as Riyadh insists, it almost certainly needs Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. And that in turn requires an end to the Gaza conflict and an Israeli commitment to a Palestinian state. WATCH: Jane Harman, National Defense Strategy Commission chair, discusses US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Israel. Source: Bloomberg Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose coalition relies on [support from far-right politicians](, would risk the collapse of his government if he overrides their objections to stop the offensive and sign up to a two-state solution. Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, who faces criminal charges for corruption, would have to confront voters overwhelmingly opposed to making any concessions to the Palestinians because they see that as a reward for Hamas. The defense pact could transform the balance of power in the region and cement US interests. A three-way alliance with Israel would deal a huge blow to Iran, which supports proxy groups across the Middle East and last month sparked fears of an all-out war when it directly attacked Israel for the first time in retaliation for a deadly strike on its diplomatic compound in Damascus. But time is running out as US President Joe Biden may be not be in office next January. If Donald Trump returns to the presidency, securing Democrats’ support will be much harder. The pro-Palestinian protests across American college campuses carry a political risk for Biden, especially among young voters. Saudi Arabia is [clamping down]( on anti-Israeli sentiment while pursuing diplomatic efforts with the Jewish state. It’s a precarious moment for a volatile region, but the rewards of success could be substantial. — [Henry Meyer]( Benjamin Netanyahu. Photographer: Abir Sultan/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may be in a perilous position if his governing Conservatives suffer significant losses in local elections today. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, which has led in national polling for months, is seeking to [make gains in key battlegrounds]( across the Midlands and North of England that may serve as a harbinger of a general election that Sunak must hold within nine months. As many as a million Russians fled abroad in the first year of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Now thousands are [returning home](, delivering a propaganda victory to the Kremlin and a boost to Putin’s war economy. Facing rejections when renewing residence permits, difficulties with transferring work and money abroad, and limited destinations that still welcome them, many are quietly opting to end their self-exile. Jacob Zuma has staged a dramatic comeback and is shaking up South African politics six years after being ousted following a scandal-tainted presidency. The charismatic 82-year-old is leading a new party that may win enough support to see Zuma [regain significant clout]( after May 29 elections, with the ruling African National Congress at risk of losing its majority. Zuma at a party rally outside his homestead in KwaZulu-Natal province on April 25. Photographer: Leon Sadiki/Bloomberg Billionaires Howard Lutnick, John Paulson and Woody Johnson are among [the donors hosting]( a Manhattan fundraiser for Trump on May 14. The presumptive US Republican nominee is looking to build his 2024 financial war chest while a criminal trial limits his campaigning for the November election. China’s largest and most advanced warship began its first sea trial, enhancing the navy’s capability to project power in the Indo-Pacific region. But unlike America’s fleet of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, the Fujian [is conventionally powered](, which could limit its range and the duration of its deployments. The US warned Georgia is risking relations with NATO and the European Union by pursuing a [“Kremlin-inspired” law]( targeting non-governmental organizations that has triggered massive protests in the capital, Tbilisi. Venezuela will increase workers’ monthly income by 30% as Nicolás Maduro seeks to [bolster support]( ahead of presidential elections in July. Biden included US ally Japan along with rivals China and Russia in a list of countries he [called “xenophobic”]( in a speech at a campaign fundraising event in Washington. Washington Dispatch Biden today will expand two national monuments in California, [protecting nearly 120,000 additional acres]( from development as part of a White House goal to designate more land and water for conservation than any previous administration. The newly protected land will enlarge the San Gabriel Mountains National Monument outside Los Angeles, and add nearly 13,700 acres of protected land at Berryessa Snow Mountain, about 60 miles north of the Napa Valley, in northern California. The designation by Biden under the Antiquities Act can be used to limit new leases for drilling, mining, and grazing — power the president has used aggressively while he campaigns for reelection. Biden has so far expanded seven national monuments and restored protections at three more, while also creating four new national wildlife refuges. Vice President Kamala Harris, a California native, sponsored legislation as a US senator to expand the San Gabriel Mountains National Monument. One person to watch today: Biden will travel to North Carolina, where he plans to meet with relatives of the law enforcement officers killed and wounded in Charlotte earlier this week. Later, he will deliver a a speech in Wilmington. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Americans increasingly view China [as an enemy]( and think that limiting Beijing’s power and influence should be a top foreign-policy priority for the US, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center. The findings come as Washington and Beijing continue to spar over issues including trade, overcapacity and the South China Sea, and the US presidential election this year is set to bring fresh turbulence to their relations. And Finally Elon Musk has upended a deal the White House saluted last year to open Tesla’s electric-vehicle chargers to other automakers by deciding to eliminate almost the entire Supercharger team, a source says. In addition to potentially compromising budding partnerships with other carmakers looking to tap Tesla’s chargers, Musk’s move [may undercut Biden’s EV push]( in the midst of his reelection campaign. Musk at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures in Los Angeles on April 13. 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