A decisive week in UK politics

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.Politics is mostly a long-distance [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Politics is mostly a long-distance discipline punctuated by intense bursts of drama. The UK is facing just such a moment this week, one that might [shape the country’s fortunes]( for years to come. Local ballots are not normally the trigger for national disruption, but voting across England on Thursday will be a key test of support for the ruling Conservatives ahead of a general election [expected in the fall](. If the party flounders — the Tories trail the main opposition Labour Party by around 20 percentage points in national polls — then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will come under renewed pressure from his own side. As [Stuart Biggs]( reports, critics on the Tory right will use a poor showing to persuade fellow Conservatives that only a change of leader can prevent a wipe out nationally. The position of Scotland’s First Minister, Humza Yousaf, is [even more precarious]( after he ended a coalition between his Scottish National Party and the Greens. That triggered an opposition confidence motion, also due this week, which he doesn’t have the votes to survive. Early Scottish elections loom. Sunak and Yousaf are both relative newcomers, having inherited restless parties undergoing upheaval. It doesn’t help that neither enjoys a popular mandate. Even putting aside political missteps, of which there have been many, each represents a party that feels tired and out of ideas: The Tories have been in power for 14 years, the SNP for nearly 17. In each case, the chief beneficiary of their woes is Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Few would bet on anything but a Labour victory whenever Sunak — or his unfortunate successor — calls the election. Politics is about timing. Right now, there’s a sense that time is up for the governments in both London and Edinburgh.— [Alan Crawford]( Humza Yousaf. Photographer: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images Global Must Reads Fighting has intensified on the front line in eastern Ukraine, with Russia [exploiting its advantage]( over Kyiv’s forces along several axes, Ukrainian army commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said yesterday. Russian troops have made “tactical successes” in some areas, while Ukraine is still able to achieve local gains in others, he said, as the government awaits the arrival of long-delayed US military aid. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is stepping up efforts to [secure a truce]( in Gaza during meetings in the Middle East starting today, in what could be a final chance to persuade Israel to call off an attack on Rafah. Blinken is in Saudi Arabia to meet with regional counterparts and then visits Jordan and Israel through Wednesday, according to the State Department. Destroyed buildings in southern Gaza last week. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg After keeping Spain on tenterhooks for almost a week, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced today that [he’ll continue in the job](. The 52-year-old Socialist [said last week]( he would withdraw from the public eye to consider his future after a judge opened a case alleging influence-peddling against his wife, a move Sanchez blamed on a right-wing plot. The phrase Viksit Bharat — or Developed India — has come to define Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic vision for a likely third term after national elections that end June 1. Analysts at Oxford Economics estimate that to attain high-income status by the centenary of its independence from Britain would require [boosting gross domestic product]( more than sixfold, to about $23 trillion, requiring economic growth of at least 8% a year for the next quarter century. Mexican opposition presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez ramped up attacks against her ruling party rival, Claudia Sheinbaum, in the second debate, [accusing her of lying]( and her family members of being involved in corruption. Just over a month before the vote, Sheinbaum has a 29-point lead over Galvez, according to the most recent [Bloomberg Poll Tracker](. China’s intelligence chief promised a “[powerful offensive](” to fight espionage amid a flurry of spying accusations against the Asian nation ahead of President Xi Jinping’s [first visit to Europe]( in about five years next week. Japan’s ruling party lost a special election Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had described in part as [a judgment on himself](, months ahead of a party leadership vote. An increasing number of German companies are [finding themselves in the crosshairs]( of Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s nationalist drive to put assets in Hungarian hands, particularly people close to his leadership. Washington Dispatch Protests against Israel’s war in Gaza continue today on college campuses across the US with anxious administrators trying to predict what comes next as the end of the academic year draws near. Despite warnings of suspension or even arrest, protesters are refusing to leave encampments on the park-like open spaces at the campuses. The intensity of the unrest is reminiscent of rallies against the Vietnam war in the 1960s and the anti-apartheid movement almost two decades later, and universities are struggling to balance the right to free speech with the safety of their students. The University of Southern California scrapped its main graduation ceremony last week, citing an unmanageable security situation a day after police arrested more than 90 protesters at the Los Angeles campus. While other prominent universities have so far not taken that drastic step, graduations present an irresistible showcase for further protest, and security has become a major concern. At Morehouse College in Atlanta, students and faculty upset over US support for Israel criticized the head of the historically Black university for inviting President Joe Biden to deliver the commencement address. Compromise seems elusive because demands by pro-Palestinian demonstrators for universities [to cut their investments]( in everything tied to Israel and weapons that fuel the war in Gaza are likely to be rejected. That means funds run by BlackRock, Google as well as Amazon’s cloud service, Lockheed Martin and even Airbnb. One thing to watch today: The House of Representatives is back in session. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Some of Europe’s most indebted governments are [heading for a painful reckoning]( this year as their ambitions to cut down on borrowing collide with political reality. While most will make progress reining in deficits by phasing out energy support measures, pressures from both new and existing commitments, and the impact of rising interest rates, are set to keep national debt high or even rising in much of the region. Italy’s borrowings, for example, could soon exceed 140% of output again. And Finally Nine members of Germany’s militant “Reichsbürger” movement [go on trial in Stuttgart today]( accused of planning to overthrow the government. They were taken into custody in nationwide raids in late 2022 targeting the group, which [adheres to a far-right ideology]( that rejects the legitimacy of Germany’s democratic order. Among the accused are several former high-ranking members of the armed forces, and a woman who was a judge and former lawmaker with the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party. The courtroom ahead of the trial in Stuttgart. Photographer: picture alliance Thanks to the 29 people who answered our Friday quiz and congratulations to Chor Jye Lee for being the first to name the Democratic Republic of Congo as the nation whose government notified Apple of concerns that the company’s supply chain may be tainted by conflict minerals sourced from the country. 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