The fate of Rafah and Netanyahu

Israel’s army is expected to advance cautiously in Rafah, but that’s unlikely to deflect international criticism and could delay bringing hostages home [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Israel seems ready to start moving civilians out of Rafah, a prelude to an assault on the Gazan city that would probably erode much of any remaining international sympathy over its stand-off with Iran. Inside Israel, after weeks of protests that have seen tens of thousands take to the streets, the release of a video of an American-Israeli hostage in Gaza reignited calls for a deal to free the captives after more than six months. At least 130 are believed to be held in the coastal enclave, some already dead. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who’s vowed to wipe out the 5,000-8,000 Hamas fighters and some leaders that Israel says [are holed up in Rafah](, has worked to overcome US objections to the offensive. WATCH: Paul Wallace discusses the latest on the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Source: Bloomberg Israel’s limited retaliation to a mass Iranian missile and drone attack that it largely thwarted with the help of the US and other allies almost two weeks ago won him some credit in Washington, calming fears of an all-out war. But the US is pressing Israel on [claims of mass graves]( found at two hospital complexes in Gaza, where Israeli forces have waged a devastating air and ground campaign in response to [Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks]( that killed almost 1,200 people. The Palestinian militant group is designated as a terrorist organization by the US and the European Union. Global concern over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where more than 34,000 Palestinians have died, according to the United Nations, has [sparked mounting protests]( on American university campuses. That’s a problem for US President Joe Biden ahead of the November election, with younger voters angered at his support for Israel. Israel’s army is expected to advance cautiously in Rafah, where civilians who fled fighting elsewhere in Gaza have sought refuge. But that’s unlikely to deflect criticism and could delay bringing the hostages home.— [Henry Meyer]( A Palestinian woman mourns a relative recovered from a mass grave at the Nasser Medical Hospital compound on April 21. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez threatened to resign after a court [opened an investigation]( into his wife, raising the possibility of a new general election. Sanchez canceled his public appearances through the weekend and said he’d reflect on the situation and announce his decision on Monday. Emmanuel Macron wants to set the stage for more robust European defense and drive support for Ukraine, and the French president [is outlining his vision]( at Paris’s Sorbonne University today, echoing a landmark speech he gave there in 2017. His calls then for a common European defense force, budget and doctrine seem more compelling in a world that has become more hostile. Emmanuel Macron. Photographer: Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP/Getty Images Ukraine is receiving a longer-range version of a [tactical ballistic missile]( system known as ATACMS as part of the $61 billion US aid package that Biden signed yesterday. Kyiv has wanted the weapons system to help strike deeper into territory occupied by Russian forces. Qatar will host talks between national security advisers and senior officials from the Group of Seven and the so-called Global South countries this weekend on plans for a June summit on Ukraine’s conditions to end the war with Russia, sources say. Russia hasn’t been invited to the [meeting in Doha]( and it’s unclear if China will attend. Mexico needs to ensure that it capitalizes on efforts by companies looking to relocate to North America, including from China, advisers to the leading presidential candidates in the June election said. [China’s investment]( in Latin America’s second-biggest economy could be a top issue when Mexico sits down with Canada and the US to review their joint trade agreement in 2026. Venezuelan opposition candidate Edmundo González said that if he wins this year’s election [he’d be open to talks]( with President Nicolás Maduro to ensure a smooth transfer of power. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s government notified Apple of concerns that the company’s supply chain [may be tainted]( by conflict minerals sourced from the central African nation. Moldovan prosecutors filed corruption charges against the pro-Russian leader of an autonomous region as concerns mount about Kremlin efforts to [disrupt the nation’s push to]( join the EU. Washington Dispatch While Donald Trump’s criminal trial resumes today in a Manhattan courtroom, legal arguments over whether he’s entitled to immunity from prosecution over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election will unfold in a much more August setting — the US Supreme Court. The confrontation heightens the stakes for both Trump, the presumptive 2024 Republican nominee, and Special Counsel Jack Smith as the decision will likely determine if the former president stands trial over allegations that he incited the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the US Capitol. The timing might be as important as the ruling itself. The court doesn’t have to decide until its term ends in June, only a few months before the election. The schedule matters all the more because of the broad expectation that, should Trump reclaim the White House in January, he would take the extraordinary step of ordering the Justice Department to drop the case. The question of [immunity from prosecution]( for acts that occurred while presidents were in office has never come before the high court. Two lower courts ruled against Trump, saying he was seeking something that couldn’t be justified by the Constitution, the words of the nation’s founders or any Supreme Court precedent. It’s possible that the justices might not provide a conclusive ruling on the immunity claim and kick the case back to the lower-court level for further consideration, all but guaranteeing that a trial wouldn’t take place this year. One person to watch today: Biden will be in New York to deliver a speech on the Chips and Science Act in Syracuse before traveling to Westchester County for a campaign event. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day The UN’s atomic watchdog expects to meet senior Iranian officials next month to discuss growing concern the Islamic Republic could build a nuclear weapon in response to escalating tension with Israel. International Atomic Energy Agency monitors were disturbed by comments made last week by a top Iranian general that Tehran [may revise its nuclear doctrine]( if Israel targets its atomic facilities. And Finally Malaysia is in early talks with tycoons on opening a casino in Forest City in a bid to revive the beleaguered $100 billion property project in which King Ibrahim Iskandar holds a stake, sources say. It’s unclear how seriously Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is taking the idea of granting what would only be Malaysia’s second-ever casino license. That [could cause a backlash]( in the Muslim-majority nation, where gambling is frowned upon. The Forest City development in Iskandar Puteri. Photographer: Aparna Nori/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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