West raises the ante in Ukraine

Putin’s loses his bet on faltering support for Ukraine [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. President Vladimir Putin has an image as a lucky leader in Russia, a reputation seemingly confirmed as the West’s faltering support for Ukraine handed his troops the advantage on the battlefield. Now his gamble that a splintering of US and European Union backing for Kyiv will deliver victory for Russia looks less of a safe bet. The Kremlin was counting on opposition from Republican backers of former President Donald Trump to continue to hold up almost $61 billion in aid to Ukraine that the US House [finally approved after six months]( of delay. WATCH:  Michael Heath reports on the passage of the aid bill on Bloomberg Television. Source: Bloomberg That follows the EU facing down a threatened veto by Hungary’s Kremlin-friendly Prime Minister Viktor Orban to approve €50 billion ($53 billion) in support in February. The bloc’s foreign ministers will discuss Ukraine again today, including [the need for more air defenses](. Measures to use frozen Russian assets to benefit Ukraine are gathering pace, including a proposal to magnify the impact of assistance by issuing some $50 bilion in bonds backed by the profits the assets generate. To be sure, [Ukrainian forces are up against it](. Exhausted troops are struggling with dwindling munitions to hold back the Russian army after Kyiv’s vaunted counteroffensive failed last year. Yet despite a big advantage in troops and weapons this year, and its escalating campaign of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, Russia has made only marginal progress on the ground. Even as Ukraine warns of the risk of a Russian breakthrough, it’s managed to hold the line so far. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says the US package now [gives his troops a chance]( to regain the initiative. Ukraine’s allies wobbled but eventually stepped up to the challenge. Russia’s army will face a rearmed Ukraine in the coming months, having failed to defeat a weakened force. Putin’s luck is about to get tested again. — [Anthony Halpin]( Ukrainian soldiers near the frontline in the Donetsk region. Photographer: Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads Israeli airstrikes overnight killed 24 Palestinians in the southern Gazan city of Rafah, the Hamas-run Health Ministry said. The attacks [targeted two houses in Rafah](, and most of the casualties were women and children, it said. The Israeli military said the head of its intelligence division [quit over the failure]( to prevent the Oct. 7 invasion by Hamas that sparked the offensive in Gaza. Rescue workers search for survivors yesterday in Rafah. Photographer: Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images China is responding to the drumbeat of American actions on trade with relative restraint. President Joe Biden [has been ratcheting up criticism]( on the campaign trail, blasting Beijing as “xenophobic” and vowing to triple tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum exports. The election season rhetoric was expected, but there is another reason for moderation: The latest US measures have minimal immediate impact. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will seek approval of legislation on his flagship migration policy today before he embarks on a European tour to defend his record on defense. The Rwanda vote in Parliament is a [key test of his premiership]( after he pledged to stop boats carrying migrants from crossing the English channel, and part of his effort to regain momentum 10 days from a crucial set of local elections. South Africa’s strategy of playing all sides when it comes to foreign policy as it seeks to position itself as a leading voice of the Global South seems to be working — so far. And yet, as [Mike Cohen]( writes, its increasingly close ties with China, refusal to condemn Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and anti-Israel stance [have raised concern]( in the US and the EU.  Voters in Ecuador handed a partial victory to President Daniel Noboa in yesterday’s referendum by approving a [raft of security measures]( including extradition for drug traffickers, while rejecting investor-friendly economic reforms. The ballot was the first hard test of Noboa’s popularity since he took office in November and shows strong support for his anti-gang policies, which are key for his hopes of winning reelection next year. Australia is gearing up for a fight with Elon Musk and American social media giants over allegations they [failed to move fast enough]( to police graphic content and misinformation during two violent attacks in Sydney over the past 10 days. A military base in Syria belonging to a US-led coalition combating militants in the area [came under rocket fire]( late yesterday, the government-affiliated Iraqi Security Media Cell said in a statement. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pledged to [boost security ties with Cambodia]( during a visit amid regional concerns over the extended presence of China’s warships at a naval base on the Gulf of Thailand. German authorities arrested two men and a woman suspected of [working for China’s ministry of state security]( to acquire details of ship-engine technology and buy a special laser without export authorization. Washington Dispatch The US House today begins a one-week recess after [climactic weekend votes]( that led to the approval of the aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The passage, after months of inaction and bickering, came about because Speaker Mike Johnson faced down the ranks of fellow Republicans who consider further US aid to Ukraine in its struggle against Russian invaders anathema. While his stance infuriated the party’s right flank, Johnson received widespread praise for pursuing a bipartisan strategy to pass the legislation, which the Senate plans to take up early this week. If Johnson comes out of the weekend looking more like a statesman, the House’s Democratic leader, Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, emerges as a powerbroker. The speaker’s plan could not have succeeded without Democratic votes. It remains to be seen if he and Johnson might join forces to pursue other goals, or if partisan habits reassert themselves. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Georgia Republican who has repeatedly threatened to initiate the process to remove Johnson as speaker, did not take that step over the weekend, though she continued to assail him in posts on X and said on Fox News that he ought to resign. Yet as she and other Republican hardliners know, an ouster vote would surely fail if Jeffries and the Democrats support Johnson. One thing to watch today: Opening arguments in [Trump’s criminal trial]( in New York are set to begin. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Temperatures in some parts of Europe reached nearly 50C during the height of the heatwave in July 2023. Image captured using Sentinel-3 radiometer instrument. Source: European Space Agency Europe endured its joint-hottest year on record in 2023 alongside 2020, according to scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization, pointing to a more perilous future for the world’s fastest-warming continent. Record heat driven both by climate change and the El Niño weather pattern [added fuel to wildfires in the region](, burning an area the size of London, Paris and Berlin combined. And Finally TikTok has worked for years to convince the US government that its popular social-media app [isn’t a threat to national security](. Yet the US House of Representatives on Saturday put legislation requiring TikTok’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest its ownership stake in the app on a fast track to become law. If it’s signed into law, the company will fight the effort in court and exhaust all legal challenges before it considers any kind of divestiture, sources say. WATCH: Karen Leigh reports on the latest developments. Photographer: Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty Images Thanks to the 51 people who answered the Friday quiz and congratulations to Miguel Vidal, who was the first to name Google as the company that fired 28 employees involved in protests against Project Nimbus, a $1.2 billion joint contract with Amazon.com to provide the Israeli government with AI and cloud services. More from Bloomberg - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. 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