India’s one-man show

The world’s biggest democracy kicks off elections [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. The numbers around India’s election, which starts tomorrow and runs for seven weeks, are staggering. Nearly a billion people are eligible to vote. Thousands of candidates are expected to vie for 543 seats in the lower house of parliament. Hundreds of political parties are participating. Yet for all the vastness of the world’s biggest democratic exercise, this year the focus is almost entirely on one man: the incumbent, Narendra Modi. His Hindu-nationalist Bhartiya Janata Party is all but certain to win its third straight election. The BJP is again centering its campaign on 73-year-old, telling voters the prime minister is a man who delivers. And in [many ways he has](. India has grown strongly under Modi. The US rivalry with China means it’s courted internationally, and companies from Apple to Tesla are making a beeline for the country. [Elon Musk is expected to visit]( this weekend. WATCH: Bloomberg’s Haslinda Amin breaks down the numbers of India’s election. Source: Bloomberg Modi remains popular among India’s rural poor, in part due to benefits like cheap cooking gas and guaranteed housing as well as moves to appeal to the Hindu majority. But problems are lurking. Job creation remains tepid, income inequality has risen and farm earnings has essentially remained flat. A recent poll showed [rampant joblessness and inflation]( are voters’ two biggest concerns. The main opposition Indian National Congress party says that under Modi India’s democracy is [“an empty shell”]( with state institutions subservient to the government. Still, arguments for more democracy and religious tolerance are unlikely to significantly sway voters. The opposition alliance, an unwieldy coalition of more than 20 mostly regional parties, isn’t fielding a prime ministerial candidate to go head-to-head with Modi, in part because they don’t have anyone nearly as popular. Much could change, and India’s voters are fickle. But Modi’s route to retaining power looks clear. — [Nishant Dahiya]( A Modi campaign rally in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, on April 10. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Israel is divided over how to respond to Iran’s attack on it last weekend with 350 missiles and drones, an assault Tehran says was to avenge a strike on its diplomatic compound in Syria. As [Ethan Bronner]( writes, the urgent question remains whether the two plunge [into a deeper direct conflict]( with repercussions beyond the Middle East, and how much of the answer comes down to Israeli politics — and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s survival instincts. Emergency services at the site of an airstrike on Tehran’s embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, on April 1. Photographer: Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images TikTok is facing a moment of truth with the US Congress on a fast track to approve a bill aimed at forcing the social-media platform’s Chinese parent ByteDance to [divest its controversial ownership stake](. If signed into law, which President Joe Biden has promised to do, the legislation would deliver a significant blow to a video-sharing app used by as many as 170 million Americans. US House Speaker Mike Johnson is moving ahead with new assistance for Ukraine and Israel in defiance of threats from [Republican hardliners to oust him](. He expects a Saturday vote on the $95 billion aid package, which would require economic assistance to Ukraine be repaid, taking up an idea Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump floated. The European Union’s waning clout versus major geopolitical rivals is increasingly sounding alarm bells, and EU leaders meeting in Brussels today will discuss an “[urgent paradigm shift](” to boost the bloc’s competitiveness, according to draft conclusions we’ve seen. Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Europe’s economy is [nearing the end of a malaise]( that’s resulted in more than a year of near stagnation. Argentine President Javier Milei has extended an olive branch to Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whom he has repeatedly called a “communist,” by proposing an encounter [to thaw relations]( between the neighboring countries. Lula, who has sought to ramp up public spending, and Milei, a self-described anarcho capitalist imposing shock therapy on his country, represent radically different economic models and have not minced words when criticizing each other. German authorities arrested two men suspected of spying for Russia and membership of a terror group [planning acts of sabotage]( against military and industrial sites. Google has fired 28 employees after they were involved in protests against Project Nimbus, a $1.2 billion joint contract with Amazon.com to [provide the Israeli government with AI]( and cloud services. Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim nation, urged Beijing to use its influence to prevent an escalation of [tensions in the Middle East](, during a visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The Biden administration reimposed oil sanctions on Venezuela, ending a six-month reprieve, after determining that Nicolas Maduro’s regime [failed to honor an agreement]( to allow a fairer vote in elections scheduled for July. Washington Dispatch Several Republican and Democratic members of the House have introduced legislation to sanction Chinese military companies that provide “material support to Russia.” “Any company aiding and abetting the horrors in Ukraine — as the Chinese defense industrial complex has done — deserves to experience the full force of American sanctions,” Representative Mike Gallagher, the chairman of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, said in a statement. The No Limits Act would create a framework to scrutinize Chinese firms’ involvement with the Russian defense establishment and give the president the power to sanction companies “involved in military modernization.” Although China claims that it hasn’t taken sides in Russia’s war in Ukraine, senior US officials said earlier this week that Beijing [has provided]( Moscow with significant quantities of components to build cruise missiles and drones as well as optical parts for tanks and armored vehicles. And Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have repeatedly reaffirmed their bond since the war began. One thing to watch today: Data on existing-home sales from the National Association of Realtors are expected to show a decline in March. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Russia is pressing ahead with two new transport corridors linking Asia and Europe, seeking to [weaken sanctions]( over its war in Ukraine. The shipping and rail networks via Iran and an Arctic sea passage could strengthen Moscow’s pivot away from Europe toward China and India, embedding Russia at the heart of much of international trade even as the US and its allies try to isolate Putin. And Finally The jailing of two South Africans working in Equatorial Guinea’s offshore oil fields for cocaine trafficking — their families and employer say they’re innocent — days after a South African court ordered the seizure of one of the yachts of the vice president, who’s known as Teodorin, are linked, sources say. As [Paul Burkhardt]( writes, the arrests are the latest [example of the impulsive behavior]( of the next in line to succeed his 81-year-old father, President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, and the Central African nation’s growing estrangement from the rest of the world. Teodorin, who has been the subject of lawsuits on at least three continents, turned over $30 million in assets, including this Malibu mansion, to the US Department of Justice. Source: Google Maps (In yesterday’s newsletter, we incorrectly attributed the source of the map to Bloomberg. It was provided by the Israel Defense Forces. We apologize for the error.) More from Bloomberg - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](