What will Iran do?

How will Iran retaliate against Israel? [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Iran is widely expected to be preparing an attack on Israel, which the Islamic Republic blames [for a deadly missile barrage]( on its diplomatic compound in Syria last week. Yet while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei [clearly feels]( some sort of response is necessary — if only to remind the world of Iran’s strength in the region — there are few easy options available to him. Most pertinently, [any major assault on Israeli soil]( has the potential to trigger a wider Middle East war that would draw in the US and other allies of the Jewish state. Iran is unlikely to come out of that well, and indeed has been avoiding such an outcome for decades. That approach would also divert global attention away from Israel’s war in Gaza, which has become increasingly unpopular and led to growing pressure from the US over the treatment of Palestinian civilians. It’s in Iran’s interest to leave Israel to deal with that dilemma without the distraction of an invasion. Iran’s other options include encouraging its various proxy militia groups — led by Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Yemen-based Houthis — to step up their own aggression against Israel. Yet that wouldn’t represent a significant change from what’s already happening and may not obviously be seen as Iran avenging the Damascus assault. A useful precedent is the killing by the US of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, an incident that at the time led to global fears of all-out war. Iran opted instead for non-lethal attacks on US military bases — enough to show that a response had been made but without escalating the matter further. Whatever he’s planning, Khamenei has the US and Israel on high alert for an attack of some kind. It remains to be seen if Iran’s bark is worse than its bite. — [John Bowker]( WATCH: Bloomberg’s Rosalind Mathieson reports on Iran’s possible retaliation against Israel. Source: Bloomberg Global Must Reads Russia’s missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, the bombardment of its second-largest city and advances along the front are stoking worries that Kyiv’s military effort is nearing [breaking point](. A dire shortage of ammunition and manpower and gaps in air defense show that Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in more than two years of war, according to Western officials. A thermal power plant damaged by a Russian missile strike on April 2. Photographer: Oksana Parafeniuk/The Washington Post/Getty Images “Ironclad” is how President Joe Biden described US defense commitments to Japan and the Philippines yesterday as he sought to assure allies about China’s [increasingly assertive actions]( in disputed waters. He made the comment before meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at the White House for the first trilateral summit among the nations. Jobs and inflation are the key concerns among Indian voters as the world’s biggest democracy prepares for [general elections starting next week](. Some 62% of respondents surveyed across rural and urban India said it was harder to get job opportunities and 71% found that prices have increased over the past five years, according to a poll by CSDS-Lokniti. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is embarking on a charm offensive with Beijing as she looks to [shield trade and economic ties]( after pulling Italy out of China’s controversial global investment initiative last year. Rome’s approach hinges on a strong commitment to NATO and the transatlantic partnership while fostering good relations with so-called systemic adversaries, such as Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow. The Earth is expected to become more disease-stricken as greenhouse gas emissions create rising temperatures. As [Jason Gale](bbg://people/profile/3245808) writes, insects and waterborne bugs that [spread illnesses]( like malaria and cholera thrive in the warm, damp conditions created by climate change. Biden will forgive $7.4 billion in federal student debt in his latest push to provide relief to borrowers and [deliver on a campaign promise]( to ease the cost of higher education as he seeks reelection. China said its top diplomat used a call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to [condemn the attack]( on Iran’s embassy in Syria. Russia boosted its influence in West Africa’s Sahel region by sending [military instructors to Niger](, its first such deployment in the junta-ruled nation. Switzerland is heading for a popular vote on its long-standing position of armed neutrality amid a debate ignited by the country’s [decision to sanction Russia]( over its invasion of Ukraine. Washington Dispatch Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson plan to hold a [joint press conference]( at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida today. The topic, sources say, will be election integrity, but the event takes place at a crucial moment for both men. It presents Johnson with a high-profile opportunity to share the spotlight with the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee far from the Capitol, where he faces the constant threat of revolt from hardline colleagues. He could well blame some of that turmoil on Trump himself. Just as Johnson tried to assemble enough fellow Republican to reauthorize part of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, Trump denounced the measure, and a procedural vote failed. Aside from that, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, an enthusiastic Trump ally, last month took a parliamentary step to oust Johnson over his compromises with Democrats. Although it’s unclear what Trump and Johnson plan to say at the press conference, unfounded allegations of election fraud have been part of Trump’s repertoire since before his loss to Biden in 2020. The event marks one of his final opportunities to appeal directly to voters before a criminal trial in New York will force him off the campaign trail for several weeks. He will hold a rally in the battleground state of Pennsylvania tomorrow and jury selection in the New York hush money case is scheduled to begin Monday. One thing to watch today: The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April is expected to show a deterioration amid higher gasoline costs. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Poland’s re-embrace of the European Union mainstream after the election of Donald Tusk as premier is making it the turnaround story of the year for some investors, with [one of the favorite plays]( being to buy the zloty against its regional peer, the forint. With Prime Minister Viktor Orban still building his self-described “illiberal” regime in Hungary, the comparison helps gauge how markets price the cost of isolationist, nativist policies and reward a country’s tack back from the populist brink. And Finally Almost a decade ago, the light-rail system in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa was hailed as a revolutionary solution to the city’s transportation woes that would redefine urban transport and carry up to 60,000 passengers per hour along its tracks. Today, with barely one-third of its 41 trains operational, it sits as a daily reminder of [the broken promises]( of China-funded infrastructure investments that swept Africa in recent years. The city’s skyline seen from the light rail system in Addis Ababa on Nov. 19, 2023.  Photographer: Michele Spatari/AFP/Getty Images Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country’s mastery of drone technology has made it a formidable arms dealer? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. 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