ANC can't rule alone

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.After 30 years of rule by the Afri [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. After 30 years of rule by the African National Congress, South Africa is ripe for political change in next month’s elections. The party of Nelson Mandela that led the fight against apartheid made initial strides in dismantling racist laws, firing up the economy and increasing access to health and education. But the ANC’s performance over the past decade has been dismal: The economy barely grew as power cuts and logistical snarlups stifled output; the unemployment rate stands at 32%; crime and corruption are endemic. So it may seem counter-intuitive that [the rand tanked]( when [a shock poll]( showed ANC support falling to 37%, down some 20 percentage points from five years ago — itself the worst result since the end of White minority rule. The poll’s methodology has been questioned, but most other surveys show the party losing its parliamentary majority on May 29, albeit by a smaller margin. If these snapshots are accurate, then coalition government looms. That doesn’t bode well if the municipal experience is anything to go by, with several coalition-governed cities suffering halts to water delivery, refuse collection and other basic services as partners wrangle over power. More worrying for investors is [the prospect](, however distant, of the ANC allying with the Economic Freedom Fighters party, which proposes nationalizing mines and placing all land in state custodianship. [In an interview yesterday](, EFF leader Julius Malema indicated that he’s open to joining a government including the ANC. There are also concerns that the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe Party backed by discredited former President Jacob Zuma may join any coalition. Zuma’s time in office was marred by the looting of billions of dollars of taxpayer funds and the systematic hollowing out of state institutions. If political change is indeed coming for South Africa, then all those clamoring for it need to brace for the turbulence ahead. —[Mike Cohen]( and [S’thembile Cele]( WATCH: Malema discusses the EFF’s economic pledges. Global Must Reads The US and its allies believe major missile or drone strikes by Iran or its proxies against targets in Israel [are imminent](, sources say, in what would mark a significant widening of the six-month-old Middle East conflict. Iran has threatened retaliation for an attack on a diplomatic compound in the Syrian capital of Damascus last week that killed senior Iranian military officials. The US and Japan unveiled plans to “[enable seamless integration](” of military operations as President Joe Biden hosted Prime Minister Fumio Kishida yesterday in a visit that underscored the Asian nation’s importance as a key ally for Washington in countering China. The two leaders announced a list of initiatives aimed at boosting defense and intelligence cooperation, with projects ranging from missiles to moon landings. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates both want to become the regional AI superpower, and [their budding rivalry]( has kicked off a race to build expensive desert data centers to support the technology. Countries want the facilities within their borders because being close to customers can smooth access to services and because the valuable data will be insulated from foreign meddling. Architectural impression of an Equinix IBX data center in Dubai called DX3. A stinging defeat in yesterday’s parliamentary election has derailed South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s conservative pro-business agenda and will make it harder to deal for the remaining three years of his term with a left-leaning bloc that [strengthened its hold]( on the legislature. Analysts said the result could make it tougher for Yoon to push through initiatives to benefit investors, while likely sinking his flagship policy of boosting stock valuations. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government is facing its biggest test of unity yet as lawmakers [begin a debate]( on relaxing Poland’s restrictive abortion law. The issue was polarizing enough to be excluded from the three-party coalition’s cooperation agreement after October’s election and has divided the alliance since. Russia fired high-speed ballistic missiles at Ukraine’s capital and western region that borders Poland this morning in an attack that [targeted the nation’s energy system](. Elon Musk is expected to visit India this month and meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, [sparking speculation]( about investment by Tesla in the South Asian nation just ahead of national elections. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese plans an Inflation Reduction Act-style program to stimulate green manufacturing and [drive the economy]( beyond its traditional minerals extraction base. Moldovan President Maia Sandu is facing rising domestic tensions ahead of key elections this year as protests in another Russia-friendly region — besides the breakaway Transnistria enclave — [fuel concerns]( that Moscow is intensifying pressure to derail the nation’s pro-European path. Washington Dispatch House Speaker Mike Johnson, already beset with discontent in his Republican ranks over compromises he made with Democrats as well as assistance to Ukraine, faces a new rebellion today after hardliners torpedoed action on a measure to reauthorize part of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Nineteen Republicans yesterday defied the speaker after getting encouragement from [someone who’s supposedly his ally]( — former President Donald Trump. “KILL FISA, IT WAS ILLEGALLY USED AGAINST ME,” Trump proclaimed on his Truth Social platform, without providing evidence to bolster the assertion. Section 702 of FISA permits agencies to collect the electronic communications abroad of people who aren’t US citizens. Renewal has been contentious as the program permits the warrantless collection of private messages in certain circumstances where Americans are in contact with a foreign surveillance target. Congress has until April 19 to renew Section 702. Both conservatives and civil liberties advocates want to overhaul the law to strengthen privacy protections. The open waywardness of his colleagues provides further evidence of Johnson’s weakening grip on the chamber’s narrow majority. Most fellow Republicans seem loath to oust another leader months after the removal of Speaker Kevin McCarthy and months before elections that will determine control of the House, yet it would only take a few of them to set that process in motion. One person to watch today: Biden will convene a “trilateral meeting” at the White House with Kishida and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Brexit border controls on some foods imported from the European Union may stoke UK inflation by 0.2 percentage points, [according to a report published today]( by Allianz Research. Imports such as fish, salami or cheese will be susceptible to fees of up to £145 ($182) starting April 30. That will impact £21 billion worth of agricultural imports and may push up import costs by £2 billion, leading to a potential 0.4% loss in consumer spending, Allianz said. And Finally An unprecedented surge in the price of cocoa — the key ingredient in chocolate — is luring farmers in some parts of Africa back to the bean. The lag between the time it takes to plant and harvest a cocoa tree means the incipient trend won’t yield an instant fix for strained global supplies, but [it could ease the squeeze]( down the line. A planter holds a cocoa pod at a field in Cameroon in 2022. 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