5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Good morning. It’s US jobs day and markets are set to recover from an oil-induced selloff. There’s also a long lineup of Fed speakers today [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. It’s US jobs day and markets are set to recover from an oil-induced selloff. There’s also a long lineup of Fed speakers today and it looks like cash is still King. Here’s what people are talking about. — [Sofia Horta e Costa]( Want to receive this newsletter in Spanish? [Sign up to get the Five Things: Spanish Edition newsletter](. It’s jobs day Here we go again: the March US payrolls data is due at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Forecasters on average expect the report, which comes after the February jobless rate climbed to a two-year high of 3.9%, will show a gain of 214,000 jobs. Hiring has been stronger than expected recently and some economists say that undercounts of new immigrants [are driving the trend](. But the team at Bloomberg Economics [is more skeptical](, calling for a bigger downshift in hiring for March. Either way, another sign of robust economic activity may lead to bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist says the Fed [will cut in June](. S&P 500 futures rise Gains in S&P 500 futures suggest the index will rebound from its worst day since mid-February. A stabilization in oil prices is helping calm the mood after Brent futures [blew past]( the key $90-a-barrel threshold, though they’re still near a five-month high. Traders are now weighing the possibility that $100-a-barrel crude [could make a comeback](, and the OPEC+ alliance may be risking a repeat of last year’s [boom-and-bust]( cycle. Gold is falling for a second day after setting a fresh record earlier this week, while the Treasury market is currently steady after Thursday’s safe-haven bid. Plus, this is why a ratio comparing Bitcoin and Ether [hints at waning risk appetite]( in crypto. Fed speakers After Federal Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari [floated the possibility]( of no rate cuts at all this year, there’s quite a long list of Fed speakers to watch out for today. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on risks and uncertainty in monetary policy at an event in New York, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will make remarks at an event hosted by Duke University. And a reminder that the Fed’s March meeting minutes, due next week, could help explain why the dot plot shows the risk is skewed toward fewer rate cuts for 2024. Rush into cash Investors are still flocking to cash funds, [which received $82 billion in the week through Wednesday](, according to the latest Bank of America Flow Show report. Money-market funds are now annualizing $1.2 trillion of inflows, the second highest ever. Inflows into cash over the past several months far outstrip the money that’s gone into other asset classes — even US equities. Past trends suggest redemptions from cash funds could begin a year after the Fed starts [cutting rates](, the Bank of America strategists said. Betting on Japan’s yen The yen climbed to a two-week high earlier as investors bet Japan’s central bank [will deliver an additional interest-rate increase]( sooner rather than later this year. The currency already rallied the most in nearly a month on Thursday, pulling back from levels that traders speculated would [spark intervention](. Still, one investor is [positioning for the yen to weaken]( with a bet that policy action from the Bank of Japan will fall short of market expectations. The currency isn’t far from last week’s 34-year low against the dollar, prompting a pledge from Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that authorities [will act appropriately]( against excessive moves in the yen — a continuation of the nation’s verbal defense. What we’ve been reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - Steve Eisman talks to Odd Lots about his [three top]( macro stories. - Elon Musk [gives away]( some blue checkmarks for free on X. - We profile the Sheikh who dominates [Abu Dhabi’s stock market](. - Two of Trafigura’s most senior executives [are leaving](. - How carmaker [Aston Martin]( outran a billion-dollar debt time bomb. - Early findings of the Baltimore Bridge probe may come [within days](. - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [is in China]( for a four-day trip. And finally, here's what Dave is interested in this morning While today's payrolls data is likely to add to the swirling questions over the Fed’s interest rate path, it seems the outlook for the ECB is becoming clearer, boosting the chances of a breakout in the moribund euro-dollar pair. Bloomberg’s latest survey of economists shows the ECB will embark in June on a steady-yet-gradual path of rate cuts that’ll run at least through the end of next year. The start date of that easing cycle chimes with what investors are pricing in as well. While that increasing certainty -- in a week that’s seen Fed pricing pushed back -- hasn’t caused the euro to break out of its fairly narrow trading range this year, it has sparked bets that future price swings will increase. Indeed, a measure of implied euro-dollar volatility over the next three months -- a period which covers the ECB’s June meeting -- has jumped the most in almost a year this week. it’s still depressed by historical standards, but with shorter-term measures of volatility also picking up (even more sharply in some cases), we might not have too long to wait for some more decisive action in the world’s most traded currency pair. [Dave Goodman]( is an editor for [Bloomberg Markets Today](. Follow him on X at [@_Davidgoodman](. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. [Bloomberg Markets Wrap: The latest on what's moving global markets. Tap to read.]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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