Ukraine is outgunned

Waning Western support leaves Ukraine outgunned [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. It’s always been a tall order for Ukraine to defeat Russia on the battlefield. Doing so without sufficient ammunition would be impossible. Yet that’s the prospect facing frontline troops [increasingly outgunned by Russia’s army]( as aid from Ukraine’s US and European allies dries up. As [Natalia Drozdiak]( and [Alberto Nardelli]( report, Russian forces are now firing seven times as many shells as their opponents. Despite assurances from Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson that he wants Ukraine funding approved “right away,” hurdles remain to [breaking the political logjam]( in the US that’s held up $60 billion in aid requested by President Joe Biden since October. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is proposing to set up a fund for Ukraine [worth $100 billion]( over five years for leaders of the military alliance to sign off at their summit in Washington in July. Unspoken is the fact that such a move could hand NATO control over the aid, and potentially hedge against a return of Donald Trump as an unpredictable ally in the White House. A European Union goal to send 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine by last month has meanwhile only been half met. Russian President Vladimir Putin has cranked up his war economy to churn out weapons and ammunition, topped up with supplies from Iran and North Korea. Indifferent to the scale of Russian casualties, and under little domestic pressure, Putin’s counting on a war of attrition to force Ukraine to submit. That presents a clear challenge to Biden and European leaders — do they have the stamina to defend a democracy from an enemy intent on destroying it? They’ve stepped up for more than two years to support Ukrainian troops who’ve defied the odds to push back Russia’s invasion. They’ve warned that global security is at stake in the war. The will to uphold that sentiment is facing a severe test.— [Anthony Halpin]( Soldiers prepare ammunition for a drone drop during a night mission at the front line near Bakhmut. Photographer: Julia Kochetova/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Israel came under withering criticism after its forces killed seven aid workers in Gaza, with Biden saying it hadn’t done enough to protect civilians and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese calling their deaths [“completely unacceptable.”]( A new report said the military offensive has destroyed [about $18.5 billion in infrastructure](, equal to about a year’s worth of economic output in Gaza and the West Bank. Immigration has erupted into a defining issue of the US election in November, with a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll finding it second only to the economy as voters’ top concern. Trump has made it [his signature issue]( as he seeks a return to the White House, sometimes borrowing rhetoric from White nationalist groups about a “poisoning” of the nation’s blood. Biden is on the defensive, claiming his hands are tied without action from Congress. WATCH: Bloomberg reporters visit Eagle Pass, Texas, and examine how immigration might influence the election. Source: Bloomberg Artificial intelligence, military cooperation and fighting trafficking of illicit drugs like fentanyl were taken up by Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday in their [first one-on-one call]( since meeting in November. Xi called out Washington’s curbs on China’s tech sector and characterized any potential US involvement in supporting a Taiwanese bid for independence as a “red line.” The US president raised concerns about freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and Beijing’s support for Russia. Much of the world tunes out when North Korea vows to unleash destruction on its enemies. But in the past few months, some prominent analysts have warned that Kim Jong Un, now in his 13th year running North Korea, [may actually be serious]( about preparing for war. [Jon Herskovitz]( lays out the scenarios if the 40-year-old dictator decides to make good on his threats to attack South Korea. An analysis of accounts on X that have promoted Russian interests in South Africa shows they are now being used to rally support ahead of elections next month for a new party backed by former President Jacob Zuma, who forged closer ties with Moscow during his tenure as leader. The observation is the latest example of how Russia appears to be using social media to try and [sway the outcomes]( of votes around the world. Taiwan’s biggest earthquake in 25 years has disrupted production at the island’s semiconductor companies, raising the [possibility of fallout for the technology industry]( and perhaps the global economy. An alliance led by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is expected to [win the majority of votes]( in the country’s most populous state, according to a survey published some two weeks before national elections. Senegal’s new president named Ousmane Sonko as prime minister, elevating to power the [populist opposition leader]( who backed his candidacy in last month’s election. Venezuela’s government sent an “anti-fascism” bill to congress that will [tighten the crackdown]( on its opponents ahead of elections this year. Washington Dispatch Trump has promised to slap 60% tariffs on imports from China and 10% duties on those from the rest of the world as he campaigns to win back the presidency. While there are many questions around the pledge — such as whether Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, would really turn it into reality — Bloomberg Economics plugged the numbers from his plan into a model for the US economy to estimate the impact. It found that following through on the campaign rhetoric [would hurt US growth]( and raise the cost of living for Americans. The model shows the proposal sending the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, up to 3.7% by the end of next year, well above the 2% target. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, expect 2.1% inflation in 2025. Trump’s plans would leave consumer prices 2.5% higher and gross domestic product 0.5% lower after two years, according to the projections. That could pressure policymakers to choose between raising interest rates to curb inflation or cutting them to bolster economic growth. One person to watch today: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks at Stanford University. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day There’s a consensus among US and European policymakers that China’s excess capacity could wipe out their industries, prompting protectionist measures to try to limit the damage. However, data suggest that [much of the overcapacity]( is in sectors where Western nations don’t compete with China — low-tech goods and those related to the nation’s property slump like cement and furniture. China’s capacity utilization rate across industry was below 76% for all of 2022 and 2023 — a level of around 80% is considered “normal” by the Communist Party’s leading financial body. And Finally Within a few decades, European wolves have gone from being hunted, poisoned and exterminated to falling under the strictest protection for endangered species, with the result that their numbers are recovering and packs expanding. While that has largely been considered positive by biodiversity champions, some farmers and politicians say [the protections have gone too far]( and want to make it easier to shoot wolves. The rise in livestock attacked — there were at least 65,500 in 2023 — has helped fuel [the largest agriculture protests in years](, with farmers already furious at rising costs and tangled bureaucracy. The Iberian Wolf Center in Robledo de Sanabria, Spain. 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