Xiaomi's EV is an investor darling

Hi, this is Vlad in Hong Kong. The hottest new gadget in China right now is a turquoise Xiaomi car. But first...Three things you need to kno [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Hi, this is Vlad in Hong Kong. The hottest new gadget in China right now is a turquoise Xiaomi car. But first... Three things you need to know today: • Google will delete billions of records [that reflect users’ private browsing]( • Japan approved nearly $4 billion in [subsidies for chipmaker Rapidus]( • Microsoft-backed Rubrik reported [a $354 million loss in its IPO filing]( Unlikely darling Three years after committing $10 billion to enter the electric vehicle market, Xiaomi Corp. co-founder Lei Jun was up on stage in Beijing on Thursday giving out [prices]( and delivery dates, with tens of millions watching across Chinese streaming platforms. A few days later, Xiaomi shares jumped 16% in Hong Kong as investors [cheered]( the early order numbers. The Beijing-based company said it had received almost 89,000 orders by Friday, far outpacing forecasts. But now comes the hard part, converting that early promise into long-term sales. There're several things working against Xiaomi, and not just the $30,000 price tag, which is steep for an unproven entrant in a fiercely competitive market. One amusing practice that’s emerged on social media is people putting down money for a deposit, just to get the evidence they ordered a Xiaomi SU7 car, and then reclaiming their deposit. It signals a healthy amount of hype, but is also a reason for skepticism. For those who do commit to the purchase, Goldman Sachs analysts observed that delivery times have ballooned to 18-21 weeks, from 5-8 weeks initially. Their view is that Xiaomi has the specs to go up against premium EVs like Tesla Inc.’s Model 3, but they forecast 100,000 units for the entire year, suggesting caution about sustaining the initial momentum over the rest of 2024. Still, there are many signs the SU7 is winning people over. Its stores across China filled with curious onlookers and potential buyers over the past week. And while it faces many of the challenges that [sunk]( Apple Inc.’s car project, Xiaomi is starting off on the right note. “Xiaomi’s distribution capability and brand awareness will be powerful resources driving its volume,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note on Monday. “General Chinese EV buyers may or may not have heard of new EV brands, but most, if not all, would know Xiaomi.” The SU7 EVs can be a success even if they never sell outside China. The market is that big, and Xiaomi has priced itself in the middle of the pack. Lei spent much of his presentation pitching his cars as great value for discerning buyers. His firm has the balance sheet — about $15 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of last year — to endure years of unprofitable car sales, the JPMorgan note said. For the car’s design, Xiaomi hired seasoned BMW AG designer Tianyuan Li and got consulting help from industry veteran Chris Bangle. Tapping outside expertise like that proved a success almost a decade ago when celebrated figure Philippe Starck helped design its [Mi Mix smartphones](. On the engineering front, Xiaomi partnered with established carmaker Beijing Automotive Group Co. And let’s not forget, Xiaomi has a wealth of experience with batteries — spanning everything from earbuds to electric shavers and vacuum cleaners — and Lei’s slides included examples showing the SU7 charging faster than Tesla’s Model 3. Still, a project of this scale is beyond Xiaomi's extensive consumer experience. Even with all that aforethought and preparation, the SU7 series remains a profoundly unproven product. Until a few days ago, most of us hadn’t even seen one in motion, and Xiaomi will have to show it can navigate the elevated expectations that come with entering a much higher price range than its usual fare. Rivals are not sitting on their hands. On Monday, Shanghai-based Nio Inc. announced an incentive plan for drivers of gasoline cars. Xpeng Inc. meanwhile cut the price of some of its models by as much as 20,000 yuan ($2,760), and Chery Automobile Co. said it will cover the cost of purchase taxes on selected models. Huawei Technologies Co. executive Richard Yu took to WeChat to disclose strong EV delivery numbers from joint-venture brand Aito, whose models cost more than double the base SU7 configuration and also get the benefit of being showcased alongside popular electronics in physical stores. Will Xiaomi be able to deliver its cars on time and will those vehicles live up to Lei’s promises? For now, competitors, investors and the Goldman analysts who hiked their price target clearly think it’s got a shot.—[Vlad Savov](mailto:vsavov5@bloomberg.net) The big story Elon Musk’s Starlink is clashing with Italy’s largest phone carrier, with possible repercussions for its [services across southern Europe and north Africa.]( One to watch Tesla may be headed for a gloomy milestone as waning demand for EVs and elevated interest rates take a toll on sales. BloombergNEF analyst Corey Cantor joins Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow. 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