5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Good morning. Stocks are poised to open slightly lower as the yield on 10-year Treasuries hits the highest since November. Crypto currencies [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. Stocks are poised to open slightly lower as the yield on 10-year Treasuries hits the highest since November. Crypto currencies fall and Google plans to delete millions of records following a settlement. Want to receive this newsletter in Spanish? [Sign up to get the Five Things: Spanish Edition newsletter](. Fed bets ease Global bonds dropped as traders priced in the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve [following better-than-expected manufacturing data.]( The yield on 10-year Treasuries hit the highest since November. Traders now reckon the Fed can deliver fewer than three rate cuts this year, a view that could be bolstered if data at the end of this week show the US economy continued to add jobs last month. Bitcoin slumps Tighter monetary policy expectations also[weighed on Bitcoin]( and tokens favored by the meme crowd such as Pepe and dogwifhat. A gauge of smaller digital assets was caught in the biggest two-day slide in about two weeks. Meanwhile oil advanced to a fresh five-month high, buoyed by the prospect of tighter supply from Mexico and heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East. ’Incognito’ settlement Google said it would delete millions of records of users’ browsing activities as part of a settlement of a class-action lawsuit that alleged it tracked people using its [“incognito” browsing mode]( without their knowledge. Google, which agreed to settle in December, will expunge “billions” of data records that reflect people’s private browsing, according to court filings. Citi job cuts Citigroup implemented a fresh round of job cuts in its US investment bank last week as part of a restructuring, according to people familiar with the matter. Technology, media and telecom were among coverage areas hit hardest as well as equity capital markets, debt capital markets, financial sponsor coverage and clean technology banking. By contrast, there are plenty of jobs in Austin, Texas — working for Elon Musk. He’s now officially[Austin’s largest private employer]( after Tesla boosted headcount in the region 86% last year. The carmaker now employs more than 22,000 workers at its Gigafactory Texas, while Musk is also building a lithium factory and has facilities for SpaceX in the state. Coming Up… Data on US factory orders, light vehicle sales and[job openings]( may offer a glimpse into labor demand ahead of key payroll numbers on Friday. Also later today, speakers from the US Fed include John Williams, Loretta Mester, Mary Daly and Michelle Bowman. What We’ve Been Reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - Iran [vowed revenge](on Israel after an air strike on its embassy in Syria - Bloomberg Economics’ forecasts show [US debt danger ahead]( - [Trump paid](a $175 million bond to avert asset seizure - UBS pledges $2 billion in [share buybacks]( over the next two years - China may start trading government bonds to [regulate liquidity]( And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning Yesterday, [Bloomberg's Hema Parmar reported]( that Tiger Global's new VC fund raised far less money that it had originally intended. The goal was $6 billion, but ultimately it only brought in $2.2 billion. This is interesting, given that the Nasdaq is at record highs, and just intuitively you'd think that would flow through to increased interest in private tech startups. It makes you wonder -- or at least it makes me wonder -- whether traditional measures of financial conditions are misleading right now. Stocks are up and credit spreads are tight. So it looks like financial conditions are very loose right now. But what matters for the real economy -- which the Fed cares about -- is whether these loose financial conditions are flowing through to actual activity, whether it's a greater impulse hiring, capital investment, business formation, or things like that. Granted this is just one datapoint, but it kind of calls into question whether these loose financial conditions are really moving the dial on the real side. One thing that may help explain the relative slowness on the VC side is what's going on with the IPO market. [Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop posted this chart yesterday](, showing the dearth of IPO activity of late. Pretty low levels, and absolutely nothing like the boom in 2021. Again, for whatever reason, higher stock prices not immediately leading to a rush of opportunity for private companies going public. Speaking of the real side. [Bloomberg's Michael McDonough observes]( that reference to job cuts on earnings calls continue to tick higher.  So at least among S&P 500 companies, higher stock prices aren't leading to a higher proclivity to hire. All that being said, there are other signs of positive momentum. Yesterday's Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 [rose to 2.8%](. Also the latest ISM manufacturing report [turned positive]( for the first time in 16 months. This caused traders to reduce [their odds of a rate cut in June](. That's been the story of the year. That first rate cut keeps getting pushed back, and yet the S&P 500 remains up nearly 10% on the year. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on X [@TheStalwart]( [Bloomberg Markets Wrap: The latest on what's moving global markets. Tap to read.]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. 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