5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Good morning. Stocks close out a record-strewn quarter, warnings about when the rally could stall and pushback on rate cuts from the Fed. He [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. Stocks close out a record-strewn quarter, warnings about when the rally could stall and pushback on rate cuts from the Fed. Here’s what’s moving markets. — [Sam Unsted]( Want to receive this newsletter in Spanish? [Sign up to get the Five Things: Spanish Edition newsletter](. Quarter of records Stock futures are pointing to a more muted session in the US following a late-session rally that took the [S&P 500 to yet another record]( as the end of the quarter approaches. The index is set for a gain of 10% for the first three months of the year, with the Nasdaq 100 just short of a 9% rise. Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark also notched up another record. Arnaud Cayla, deputy CEO at Cholet Dupont Asset Management, said: “Investors have no reason to sell.” Note of caution JPMorgan strategists sounded a note of caution on the relentless rally in stocks, however, and suggested that when it does come to an end, [investors may not see it coming](. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, JPMorgan’s chief global equity strategist, said: “It just might come one day out of the blue. This has happened in the past, we’ve had flash crashes.” Other remains optimistic. RBC increased its target for the S&P 500 on a brighter economic outlook, while Goldman Sachs said that even though US stocks are expensive, there room for them to rise more. No rush on rates There is [no rush to cut interest rates]( and recent economic data warrants delaying or reducing the number of reductions seen this year, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said. He added that he’d want to see “at least a couple months of better inflation data” before cutting, while also noting the strong economy and robust hiring as further reasons to wait. There are no speakers scheduled for today. China’s downturn The protracted downturn in the Chinese property market is [rippling through the nation’s banks](, eroding their balance sheets as bad loan levels creep higher. Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said that China needs to cut its debt and ease monetary policy in order to avoid a [“lost decade.”]( Meanwhile, a line from a book citing old comments made by Chinese President Xi Jinping became a [hot topic of conversation]( between stock and bond traders this week. Coming Up… GDP, jobs and pending home sales data will top the economic agenda on Thursday, with pharmacy chain Walgreens Boots Alliance to report earnings. Premarket trading is relatively quiet, with telecoms equipment testing group Keysight having made a $1.5 billion offer to buy the UK’s Spirent Communications, trumping a bid made by rival Viavi Solutions. And Sam Bankman-Fried is [to be sentenced later](. What We’ve Been Reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - Cracks in the world of [climate finance](. - Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman remains [bullish on private credit](. - A [potentially historic marine insurance loss]( from the Baltimore bridge collapse. - How Michael Rubin came to rule [sports trading cards](. - The [“Princess of Wahaha”]( seeks to revive the family fortune. And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning Something to watch is that President Biden's polling numbers seem to be improving. On Tuesday, [Bloomberg and Morning Consult]( put out a new poll showing Trump's lead meaningfully narrowing in the key swing states, particularly in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Trump's lead has been completely erased. Other polls have also shown a tightening of the race. On the prediction market Polymarket, Trump's odds of winning are down to 50%. In February, they were at 55%. Biden had been as low as 33% recently and is now up to 41%, with the market still pricing in at least some possibility that he's not on the ultimate Democratic party ticket — though it seems to be sinking in that it will almost certainly be a Trump vs. Biden race. Meanwhile, today we get the latest Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Keep an eye on this table, which shows economic mood divided along party lines. All three categories (Democrat, Independent, Republican) are up significantly versus a year ago, in terms of how they view the economy. We'll see if there is any further movement in the wake of Biden's State of The Union, which may have been a polling turning point. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on X [@TheStalwart]( [Bloomberg Markets Wrap: The latest on what's moving global markets. Tap to read.]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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