5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Good morning. Nvidia hosts an AI conference, Google closes in on a big win for Gemini and strategists look for things that could disrupt the [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. Nvidia hosts an AI conference, Google closes in on a big win for Gemini and strategists look for things that could disrupt the US stock rally. Here’s what people are talking about. — [Sofia Horta e Costa]( Want to receive this newsletter in Spanish? [Sign up to get the Five Things: Spanish Edition newsletter](. “AI Woodstock” Nvidia’s annual artificial intelligence conference [starts today]( — an event that could be so important to the stock that Bank of America analysts [have dubbed]( it the “AI Woodstock.” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to deliver a keynote address in the afternoon, with expectations running high for the semiconductor maker. Huang typically kicks off the event with an introduction of new products and an outline of his latest vision for where technology is headed. Nvidia’s shares still rose even in a volatile week last week, marking its 10th straight positive week which is the longest [winning streak]( in Nvidia’s history as a public company. Alphabet rises The shares are up more than 3% in early New York trading on news [Apple is in talks]( to build Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence engine into the iPhone. The two companies are in active negotiations to let Apple license Gemini to power some new features coming to the iPhone software this year, people with knowledge of the matter told my colleague [Mark Gurman](. A deal with Apple would be Google’s highest-profile partnership for Gemini to date and could be a major win for the company’s AI efforts. Apple has more than 2 billion devices in active use that could potentially become home to Google Gemini later this year. But a partnership between the two Silicon Valley giants would also likely draw the eye of regulators. S&P 500 cracks US stocks are set to open higher today after the S&P 500 last week saw its first back-to-back weekly decline since October, while Treasuries are relatively flat after a tumultuous week. Morgan Stanley strategists say bond yields are approaching a key level that could potentially disrupt the stocks rally, with the team viewing 4.35% on the 10-year US Treasury yield as [“an important technical level.”]( There’s evidence that systematic funds last week trimmed their bullish positions on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, according to analysis by the team at Bank of America, who say there’s potential for similar reductions this week. Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka says his team no longer has a preference for US stocks over those in the euro area, warning also that the risk for a market pullback is high. Powell’s silence Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been reluctant to make a call on how the US economy [has changed since the pandemic](, adding to rate volatility and making it hard for households and businesses to plan. There are big risks for a central bank coming to grand conclusions, and Fed officials still have scars from saying in 2021 that inflation was mainly a phenomenon of transitory supply-chain clogs. There’s also political sensitivity ahead of the November election, which Powell experienced this month when he mentioned at a congressional hearing that immigration had taken some of the pressure out of the labor market. Bond investors who were once convinced that the Fed would start cutting interest rates this week are painfully surrendering to a [higher-for-longer reality](. What to watch Economic data today includes February numbers of existing home sales in Canada. Chile releases its fourth-quarter GDP report and Colombia reports its trade balance for January. There’s also the [CERAWeek energy conferenc](e in Houston, which starts today and is running through March 22. There are no S&P 500 earnings scheduled for today. Plus, cocoa futures have officially doubled in 2024, setting a new record. What we’ve been reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - Betting on the remains of FTX is both[lucrative and complicated](. - A defiant Vladimir Putin [gets another six years]( as Russia’s president. - Boeing’s pain is [spreading to travelers]( as airlines trim summer schedules. - A rate hike in Japan is now [widely expected]( on Tuesday. - The biggest solar manufacturer is [cutting almost a third]( of its workforce. - Used [Patek Philippe and Rolex]( prices stabilize for another month. And finally, here's what Garfield’s interested in this morning This week contains two momentous central bank meetings with strategists and investors flagging the potential for a shift toward tighter policy settings in both Japan and the US. The Bank of Japan’s Tuesday decision is seen as a decent chance to either end negative rates or at least signal a likeliness it will soon do so. And while the Fed is overwhelmingly expected to hold rates, strong inflation readings have spurred speculation it will shift its dot plot to forecast 50 basis points of cuts in 2024, rather than 75 basis points. But traders seem surprisingly calm about the situation. Indeed, dollar-yen implied volatility readings show currency markets are less anxious now than they were in the lead-up to the last two BOJ meetings seen as having strong potential to roil global assets — in July and December 2023. While one-week implied volatility for the dollar-yen exchange rate has ticked up, it’s still modestly lower than in the approach to the December decision, when Governor Kazuo Ueda was expected to at least outline a path toward ending negative rates. He instead gave very few clues. The relative calm in the dollar-yen market may reassure investors that they have little to fret about this week, but it also signals that any major surprises have the potential to set off some very strong reactions indeed.  [Garfield Reynolds]( is Bloomberg’s Markets Live team leader in Asia. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. [Bloomberg Markets Wrap: The latest on what's moving global markets. Tap to read.]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. 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